Thursday, 8 October 2020

Grand Prix round 2

Well, either the field has been blown completely wide open, or this is an inevitable van Gerwen/Price final, only time will tell, but let's pull up the master computer and check what bets we like - we went 1-1 in the first round, as both bets were odds against we only needed to hit one to lock in a profit. Let's go game by game:

van den Bergh/van Duijvenbode - 0.1u van Duijvenbode 13/5 - very simply, I refuse to believe he'll play quite so poorly as he did against Suljovic, and additionally, I refuse to believe that Dimitri will play quite so well as he did against Smith. With the strengths and weaknesses of the respective players in the first round being the doubling, I'm toning this down to just a tenth of a unit, rather than the quarter that would normally be warranted by the master computer saying that, over 2020 data, Dirk should be the favourite - his scoring has been fine, but there's enough uncertainty over doubling. Still very much worth the play.

King/Whitlock - Not really sure where that performance from Whitlock came from. A ton plus average in double start? Really? The stats reckon that the line, which has Simon as a small favourite, is accurate enough. King will definitely need to up his scoring from the Wade game, which was remarkably pedestrian - at least prior to the last two legs, we saw in the last Euro Tour that there's enough there.

Anderson/Noppert - 0.25u Noppert 2/1, I don't get why the market continues to sleep on Danny. His year long stats are comparable with Anderson's, his first round performance wasn't too dissimilar (and he faced a lot more of a threat as Cross really did nothing), so I find it inconceivable that Danny doesn't claim this match at least 40% of the time. He's been playing well enough all year that it's worth going against Gary for a second consecutive match.

van Gerwen/Petersen - 0.25u Petersen 23/10, Devon literally whitewashed MvG less than a month ago and is one of the hottest players on the planet. van Gerwen was very good in the opening round against Ratajski, let's be fair, but he needed to be as he took a deciding set, and was reliant on Ratajski missing in leg two of the decider. Petersen's a stronger threat than Krzysztof - for the line to say that Devon wins this less than one in three times is frankly ridiculous.

Joyce/Chisnall - Half tempted with Joyce here. Stats probably give him a little bit more than a one in three shot, so 23/10 is nearly what we need, and he certainly produced the goods in the shock of the event so far, especially on the doubles where he basically couldn't miss. That said, Chizzy averaged some huge amount in giving Glen Durrant effectively zero chances, so I don't think we can say Joyce on form and ignore the overall picture. There's a fair chance that Joyce's doubling prowess was simply unsustainable.

Clemens/de Zwaan - Very good chance for Clemens to push into the quarters here. He's 4/6, which given the form of de Zwaan, which has been severely lacking in 2020 (albeit he has had some injury issues), could be worth the shot. I'm seeing it at around a two in three chance for Gabriel, but some pretty poor checking out gives me enough reason for concern not to bet the German number one here, which he clearly is in all but world ranking, and will be in world ranking if he wins this one.

Cullen/Clayton - Market can't really separate the two, with Clayton being a very small favourite, Cullen looked slightly the better player in round one, but Clayton's been the better player throughout the year, so I think we can do 0.25u Clayton 4/5, year long he's scoring a clear couple of points per turn more than Joe, which translates to around a two in three win chance, more than enough to take slightly odds against.

Price/Huybrechts - Not much to talk about here, Kim will have been pretty happy just to get the first round win in a format that ought to have suited his opponent in Dolan, while Price wasn't good against Wattimena but at least got over the line. Huybrechts is 4/1, this seems an accurate enough line, so no real value here.

That's the lot, I may come back tomorrow evening not with Grand Prix stuff (round two is spread over two days), but with early Challenge Tour thoughts as they kick off tomorrow. 

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