Sunday, 25 October 2020

ET4 day 3

Well day 2 didn't have the finish we wanted, with both Jose de Sousa and Ian White inexplicably losing, which more than wiped out everything we'd made from getting Andy Hamilton and Franz Rötzsch over the line, the other bet (Lowe) losing in a decider, so really disappointing. Into day 3 now, a few players that need to win to get in the Euros, let's take a look:

van Gerwen/Hamilton - The Hammer looks to be in barring a very weird set of results, so doesn't really have pressure on here against MvG, but I can't really see a bet here - we can get 5/1 which isn't that much better than what it should be, maybe if van Gerwen's scoring remains as pedestrian as it was against Razma yesterday Andy's got a chance, but I don't think so.

Wade/Aspinall - We had this one this time last week as well, such is the way the seedings have worked out, yesterday Wade had no problems with Harrysson in a pretty poor match, while Aspinall needed every leg to take down Jason Lowe, who knows what'd have happened if Jason didn't miss those two darts to break at 4-4. Aspinall's the favourite, price is basically the same as last week, and so is the analysis, except here there's the added disincentive to take Wade given a middling performance on Saturday.

Ratajski/Rötzsch - Can Franz book his ticket to the Euros from nowhere? It'd be a remarkable achievement given ten days ago I had no idea who he was. Ratajski will probably be a step too far though, Krzysztof was very good in avenging the loss to Kleermaker yesterday, and we're only getting 10/3 today as opposed to 9/2 yesterday, so given that Ratajski can in no way be considered a worse player than Cross, we can pass on this one.

Suljovic/Hughes - Dartsdata fucked up yet again (why oh why don't the PDC use Dart Connect at least as a backup), Carl and others were able to put together the numbers from Mensur's deciding leg win over Clemens, very nice performance again, Jamie got through a scrappy affair with Steve West and is probably thankful for West missing a bunch of doubles. This is another redo from last week, and another no bet just like last week - Suljovic being a minor favourite in the market appears accurate enough.

Smith/Hopp - Ross rallied from a big hole to defeat Gerwyn Price in a decider, while Hopp pulled off the big upset against de Sousa, probably Hopp's best result in years. Hopp is in Oberhausen but Smith needs the win here to get there, market has Hopp as a tiny dog but probably should be a bit longer - 0.25u Smith 8/11, Ross has played some really good stuff this weekend, projects as a 2-1 favourite and has big incentives to reach the quarters here.

Chisnall/Cullen - This would be one more redo, if Chizzy hadn't lost to Labanauskas last week that is. Chizzy put in a big average against Meulenkamp and should be very dangerous, Cullen also got into three figures in a routine win over Marijanovic, and comes into this one with a bit more than a 40% chance in the market. That looks about right to me, no incentive to go either way here.

Noguera/Smith - Jesus got the huge win over Ian White to keep his Oberhausen chances alive, Smith's another tough out, Michael cruising to a 6-2 win over Schindler yesterday. Nearly enough value to go with Smith here, but not quite given Noguera should have the extra bit of confidence and motivation given what's at stake if he can just put out one more good game.

Baker/Noppert - Final game, Scott was able to put out Daryl Gurney with less than a 90 average, inflated by a twelve darter to ice the match 6-3, Noppert averaged 13 points more in defeating Adrian Lewis by the same score. Open section for Noppert is, who has as good a chance as anyone in this half, he's a big favourite in the market, shorter than 1/2, which actually seems about right - that's just how good Danny is playing right now.

So just the one bet on Smudger, let's hope Hopp can't repeat any of last night's heroics.

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