Friday 13 November 2020

PC 21/22 done

Alright alright alright, we're now down to just one (one!) event before the cutoff to end all cutoffs, after tomorrow that's it, there is no more, we'll know a huge chunk of the worlds field. Price and Wright binked, but we're not overly interested in the top end (although de Sousa, by virtue of beating Lewis in today's semi, has knocked Adie out of the FRH top 20 and got in there himself) - let's go through player by player (almost) everyone on that big list posted yesterday, and see where things stand for each of them. Erik Middelkoop has indicated that the cutoff has now crept up to a round 10k for the worlds, so beat that in mind.

de Decker - Abode the Woodhouse line from Thursday morning, safe.
Hamilton - Not great. Bricked both events so is now just 500 quid above the line. Playing alright this week, so there's plenty of draws that should give him one win that ought to be enough, if not mathematically safe.
West - Picked up a grand today so will be fine.
Henderson - In trouble. Missed on both events, so is now just 250 quid above the line. Is in the bottom dozen of performance from this week. Really, really needs a favourable draw - and it needs to be extremely favourable, if he's not beating either Larsson or Dekker.
Baker - Similar position. Same money, another two bricks. He is at least playing middle of the road quality, and in van der Voort and Meulenkamp didn't get great draws. One win might be enough.
Meulenkamp - Speaking of Ron, he picked up that 500 quid from Baker today but that was it. He's doing well enough that he's got enough opponents that he could pick up a win more often than not, he also has a money advantage over the two just mentioned now.
Leung - More or less can read the same as Ron, except as having 500 quid less to start with, he is now right on the cutoff. Could do without a draw against Duzza as he had yesterday. Would think he can get the win to get home.
Borland - Just the one win again to stay on the bubble. He's playing slightly better than Ron and Kai though, which is a bonus, although he needs to be beating the likes of Kenny really.
Rodriguez - Two bricks. In trouble. Needs a board final as a minimum, probably a board win assuming that at least one of the four tied for the last spot gets a win tomorrow. Is performing right with those mentioned just above, not much to separate them at all.
Murray - In. Quarter final today was more than enough having got to a board final yesterday. I thought he'd have a chance of doing something, and he's done just that.
Boulton - Right on the 10k border. Got to a board final yesterday but ran into de Sousa in round one today (forced a decider though). As long as he doesn't get a complete bastard draw, he should be OK, he's actually in the top sixteen of scoring this week.
Jones - Picked up two one and done performances to stay on the money bubble at 10k. Is right in that Meulenkamp range in terms of how he's played this week, there really is nothing to separate them, it's so close.
Noguera - Couple of decider losses to Pipe and Wilson leave him needing a board final minimum tomorrow. It'll be tough, he's a bit below everyone mentioned in that Jones/Meulenkamp group, but not impossible, it would at least put him just above 10k though.
Webster - Got 500 quid yesterday (beat Hunt, lost to Evetts), then lost to Waites today. Scoring is not good this week, it's a good point below those he's trying to chase down. We know what he can do, but needing, realistically, a board win, I don't think it's that likely.
van de Pas - Has given himself a chance with a board final today to leave himself 500 quid below the bubble. The concern is his scoring is even worse than Webster's. If he can avoid a seed and then have the other guy knock the seed out, then who knows, but I don't fancy his chances.
Whitehead - Another two misses leaves him needing a quarter final. He did get one of those on Tuesday to be fair, but with overall sub-85 scoring, he's probably out of the running.
Schindler - At least got one win yesterday to leave him needing a board win minimum. The good thing is that the game is at least there - he's scoring over 90, and his win was over Petersen, and he had another good win in the first event over Price. At least here, I think it's possible, but will need a lot of work and probably a decent draw.
Mitchell - Scotty's probably done. A board win will only put him in a tie for the last spot as it stands, so a quarter is probably the minimum ask. It's likely a bit too much to do, his scoring is fine at just a shade under 91 (it's better than Schindler's actually), it's more that he'll need to do something that, as a non-card holder, he's not really done before and it's a new kind of pressure, especially knowing he doesn't have the PDPA qualifier as a backup.
Zonneveld - Scoring looks good, real good, it's around the same level as Martin and Scott above. Problem is that he ran it into Damon Heta and then got a surprise whitewashing from Joe Murnan to put him in exactly the same spot as Scott. Chances seem slim to none, he's shown some game but needing a quarter is a bit too much.
Payne - Another player on 8k before, another guy with just the one win added to it. Payne's scoring is bang on average for the field, we do at least know he's got the game that'll show up to win one of these, so there is at least that much.
Sedlacek - Similar spot to Payne. Almost certainly left too much to do now. It does feel like he's got the A-game to be able to push deep in one of these, but it's probably going to require a semi final without a bit of help from other results, which seems a little bit of a stretch.
Klaasen - Dire straits for Jelle with just the one win in the past two days. Requires a quarter minimum, might need to be a semi final, isn't really showing enough to make us think that he'd be able to hit his peak game statistically.
Rydz - SEE! Look at the charts in the previous post, he was up at the top of them, then bang, semi final. Probably needs one more win to be completely safe, but assuming the countback rules haven't drastically changed, it'll take a lot of results going against him to force him out.
Bunse - Not going to happen. Needs a huge result and isn't playing anywhere near the level that is required.

I'll cut off at those who were on 7k or below - Pipe and Carlin have got up to 8.5k, but I'll ignore Carlin as he's scoring way too low to make a quarter final seem like a realistic prospect. Pipe however is in the top 20 of scoring - so given a good draw and a bit of luck, it's not unrealistic to think that he could get a run going and squeeze into the field. The only other player I will chuck in as a wildcard is Krzysztof Kciuk - he's not scoring blisteringly hotly, but is getting results - last three being board win, quarter final, board win. He needs a semi final as a minimum, and it'd take some strange results for a final to not be the most likely minimum result, but hey, when you're picking up results and, ideally, confidence, who knows what can happen?

So looking at the top 32 I posted in the last post, if we assumed everyone from Woodhouse up was in then, and add on de Decker, Murray and West, that leaves six spots. I'm thinking we're looking at Rydz, Boulton, Meulenkamp, Hamilton, Borland to just do enough, then one wildcard run to sneak in from way back. It's all going to be draw dependent though - all well and good thinking Borland will get in, but draw MvG round one and it's a problem.

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