Thursday, 19 November 2020

Well that caught me out

Matches starting at 3pm? So that Sky, with infinite sports channels, doesn't have it clashing with a meaningless football friendly? Whatever next.

The good news for anything following for tips is that on a brief scan nothing jumped out as incredible value, and those that seemed maybe marginal enough to consider betting finished up on the losing side, so we've either dodged a bullet or not left anything behind anyway. Plenty of the games were dead rubbers which, after the Webster/Taylor fiasco a few years back we don't touch anyway. I think it was only maybe Cross/Humphries which was of interest.

Remaining eight games tonight, let's go group by group:

van Gerwen/Cullen - Real tough ask for Joe, needs to get a better score here than Clemens does against Hunt. Mainly tough because van Gerwen's been looking good, real good. Very good spot to punt on Joe though, 0.25u Cullen 14/5, Joe's been playing well and winning titles, van Gerwen is already through (only actually needs one leg to win the group), so a fair chance MvG may not have his foot to the floor.

Clemens/Hunt - Adam's through with a 5-2 win. Gabriel's in with a better result than that, and the same result or better than Cullen gets. Half tempted to go with Hunt here, he's better than 9/4 and I've got him winning a fair bit more than that, but he's looked somewhat off the pace in his first two games and I can't see Gabriel taking it easy.

Smith/Ratajski - No bets here. It's priced as a flip, Ratajski's 11/10 and I'm seeing 50/50. Depends on how you see the dynamics working, Smith needs two legs whereas Ratajski must win, wouldn't surprise me to see a narrow Krzysztof win.

de Sousa/Ashton - Line seems fine. Ashton is a huge dog here, 1/10 on de Sousa isn't that ridiculous, I might pull it back a couple of points but that's it. Jose needs to win big and can't rely on Smith doing him any favours.

Wright/Petersen - Devon's all but in, just needs to get three legs, Wright is in with 5-2 or better, but any sort of win is probably enough with the leg difference in hand. Line is probably favouring Wright a little bit too much at around 7/4 post-vig removal, not enough to consider punting Petersen.

van Duijvenbode/White -  Ian needs a combination of a big win and then a big win for Devon. Dirk is in with a win and either a Petersen win, or must win huge and hope - if Wright wins 5-2 or 5-3 he can at best force a shootout. Market says flip, may be worth a White punt here - odds aren't quite enough for me though.

Clayton/Suzuki - Mikuru's not played bad at all. Don't really want to touch 11/2 against a Clayton that must win though, lose and he's out if Joyce gets just one leg.

Price/Joyce - This is worth a nibble, 0.1u Joyce 7/2, Ryan isn't bad at all and ought to nick this one time in three. Price nearly lost to Mikuru after all. Both are win and in, if we assume Jonny wins heavily then it's also lose and out for either player.

Will summarise group stage thoughts later when I look at the first last 16 games.

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