Sunday, 29 November 2020

Semis

Pity that Cullen couldn't nick that game, it might have made for slightly more interesting analysis, but we've at least got the top three in the world plus King to look at. Again, like in the quarters, King is kind of tempting - we can get as large as 7/2, and I think he's playing well enough that he may have near a one in three shot at it. I can pass this one though as betting against Wright in a semi final doesn't seem like the greatest idea, and the edge isn't as much as it was against Heta, and we didn't bet there either.

In the other one, we get a redo of last year's final - Michael looked damned good against van Duijvenbode, but I'm not quite sure why he is the favourite against Price here. Sure, van Gerwen's looked a fair bit better over the last couple of tournaments, but Price is just better over longer form. 0.25u Price 11/8, this will probably be the last bet of the season, Price looks, on post-restart form, a 60/40 favourite. We should take an alright odds against line here.

In the final, if we assume Wright wins, Wright should be about 8/13 against van Gerwen and evens against Price. The latter is absolutely even, over the course of a world final right now, the longest game we can have in darts, Wright only projects at 50.11% - that's how close it is.

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