Thursday, 26 November 2020

Players Championship betting analysis

Not yet updated the betting tracker - one, I forgot, and two, the running total only changed by a hundredth of a unit, so apart from ROI ticking down ever so slightly, nothing has changed. 32 games tomorrow, we'll run through them in draw order and see what we think will happen:

Wright/Meikle - Nice opportunity for Ryan to get a bit of exposure here, but while Wright is clearly the better player, I don't think Ryan's anywhere near as outclassed as the market indicates. Meikle's been scoring at a solid 91 clip since the restart, which is very respectable, so 0.1u Meikle 5/1, it's a long shot but the projections reckon he's got much better chances than that - maybe around one in three. Knock it down a bit for stage experience etc, but still a decent spot.

Lewis/Whitlock - This is a first round game where five years ago it'd have been a Premier League match. How times change. Simon's resurrected his career a bit in the last six months or so, while Adrian's a bit off doing that and could really do with a result to try to push back towards the top sixteen. 0.25u Lewis 5/4, odds against may look right on results, but Lewis has been doing enough where it should probably be priced 8/11 the other way. He's outscoring Whitlock.

Searle/van den Bergh - We'll see what Dimitri can do and whether he can get another major run going. Searle's probably been a bit unlucky in a few spots this year, and landing in this stacked eighth of the "draw" is a bit more of the same. Got to trust the numbers here, 0.25u Searle 11/5, this is, on the numbers, a coinflip.

Gurney/Rydz - Good opportunity for Callan here after sneaking into the event in the Winter Series, Daryl's got a decent enough seeding that I think's reflective of where his game is at, but while the odds are a bit closer than I thought they'd be, I think they're still sleeping on Rydz here - 0.25u Rydz 13/8 - he should take this nearly 60% of the time. He's playing that well.

Smith/Krcmar - Unfortunate that Boris has got this draw, he's a very dangerous opponent but is running into Michael at just the wrong time. 9/2 is maybe a little bit dismissive of his chances, but it's not that much of a misprice that I want to go with it, I'd probably have gone around 100/30.

Anderson/Brown - Hard to call really. Gary's barely played this year apart from one tournament, and Keegan's someone I can say I've barely noticed at all the entire season. I'd like to go for a policy ignore the game as a result, but fortunately I don't need to, stats say Keegan winning slightly more than one in four, and he's priced at 5/2, so I can just move on.

de Sousa/de Decker - Newest major champion against an up and comer who's quietly doing work a bit under the radar, unfortunately running into close to the nut low draw. Mike being 4/1 or there abouts isn't unfair, it's accurate.

van der Voort/Telnekes - Seems like it's increasingly rare that we get all Dutch ties, but we've got one here between the PDC veteran who's not had a bad year at all, and the newcomer who's made a solid start to his career on this side of the divide. Looks a bit more than a 60/40 in Vincent's favour, we can get slightly longer than 2/1 on Derk, which I wouldn't blame people for taking, just feel that there's been enough games where Telnekes has really done nothing, which might give van der Voort that little bit of extra edge.

Aspinall/Waites - Ought to be a good one this. Nathan's not done a great deal wrong this season, while Scott's picked his game up throughout the year and generally adapted well to the PDC. Very well, in fact - 0.25u Waites 3/1, Scott's winning percentages are perhaps a bit exaggerated by him having a bit of a large number of "taken off" legs, but on the raw won legs he's up at nearly 45%. Even if we knock 10% off for consistency, that's still better than one in three, and one in four is the break even point. We'll take that.

Smith/Huybrechts - Ross has often been in the conversation for best player not to win a PDC event, while he's yet to manage that, his season's been good enough to get into the top 32 of this ranking. Kim's also done alright, certainly trending back into the right direction and could get close to back in the top 32 of the general order of merit. Ross seems like he should take this most of the time, although Kim's not that far behind as an underdog - 4/5 might be worth the nibble on Smith, I'd probably be all over evens.

Heta/Kuivenhoven - Damon had another good week at the Slam, and comes into this one as a solid favourite over Kuivenhoven, Maik having tailed off in form a fair bit after a very solid first few months. Seems like a pretty standard 75/25 in Damon's favour, market has it slightly more biased towards him, but not enough where we can consider going against Heta.

Bunting/Murray - Stephen's doing enough here and there to maintain a ranking in the top 32, but is starting to miss majors, which is going to severely hurt him and put a lot of pressure on him in 2021. On the other side is Murray, who's quietly had a competent season after getting his card way back in January. 6/4 seems an accurate reflection of where the players are at - Stephen's just doing enough to be the favourite, but Ryan is a solid operator who isn't that much worse at this stage.

Ratajski/Sedlacek - All Eastern European tie here after Karel got into the event with a decent last day run which wasn't quite enough to get him into the worlds, Krzysztof we know all about, we're just waiting for the one good TV run which is the only thing that's really lacking. This projects at 70/30, so the 4/1 we can get is awfully tempting, but I get the feeling that Sedlacek's rating is slightly false on account of him seeming to be slightly streaky, so I can't really go against the rock solid Pole in this one.

Razma/Dobey - More Euro action with Madars here, got to a final earlier in the year and is another one who's got an incredibly hot A-game but can disappear for a while. Dobey's disappeared for much of the year, but still is good enough to project as about a 60/40 favourite in this one. He's a little bit shorter than that at 8/15, so if we were looking to bet we'd go towards the Latvian, but the edge isn't quite there.

Noppert/Beaton - Danny's had another great year and is finally starting to get the plaudits that his play deserves, and he's got a nice enough draw here in Steve, who's now dropped from the worlds top 32 and is reliant on the Pro Tour to make the worlds this year, which could be the beginning of the end. Beaton's still perfectly competent, but Danny's so good, and should claim this around two out of every three. Steve's priced at 7/4 which seems fine to me.

Chisnall/King - Another tasty first round tie, Mervyn's continuing to hang around the top 32 and keeps having solid runs often enough to maintain that ranking. Dave's had a couple of decent chances to bink a big event this year but is still coming up short, just not quite putting together enough when it matters most. This'll be closer than the market thinks, King is 7/4 which is extremely close to go mode, I'm getting him at near 45%, just got an underlying feeling that Dave will up his game enough here to claim it.

Price/Henderson - Not much to say about this one. Gerwyn's been really good this year. John hasn't. That we can't get 1/6 on Price isn't disrespectful, if anything it's an inaccurate assessment of their relative abilities in that Price ought to be shorter. Not enough edge to lump on, but can shove the Welshman in your accas all you like.

Evans/Hughes - Not sure how this one is priced close. Ricky's not done a great deal and hasn't shown his peak game that much this year. Jamie's not had a great season but has shown overall scoring that's a good couple of points better than Evans. As such, 0.25u Hughes evs, might even be worth a half unit play give he projects to win nearly two in every three, well over 60% in any case.

Wattimena/Lennon - Tricky one this. Jermaine's been playing alright and getting some results that seem a fair bit better than what his quality would suggest, whereas Lennon's been playing about the same but not converting into scores. Have got Lennon at a little bit over 40% in this one, although the market's enough of a non believer in Jermaine that we can only get 6/4 here. No bet.

Petersen/Humphries - Could be the tie of the round this. Devon's reclaimed some decent for after a little bit of a blip in the Winter Series, whereas Luke has been very good throughout the last year, just not getting that first senior title. Or really looking like threatening to do it. Seems like a flip of a game so 0.25u Humphries 13/8.

White/Borland - Ian could do with a bit of a TV run, seems like he's not been getting great results for a while now, although his level of performance hasn't tailed off as much as some people might think. Willie's not played bad at all this year, but this looks like a bit of a mismatch, and an appropriately priced mismatch at that - projections say he's only fractionally better than 25% and he's 3/1. Next.

Cullen/Hunt - Joe'll be looking to make a big run in a TV event after picking up his quality of play over the last couple of months and starting to look dangerous again. Adam we've mentioned a few times recently as someone who's been under the radar, cat may be out of the bag after he got through to the Slam knockout stages. Not quite the value to go with him here though, we can get 5/2, but I think he should only be about 7/4 or there abouts. A little bit longer and we'd go with it.

Cross/Lowe - Another game that'll be a good one. Rob's been alright, but nowhere near his best stuff, and Jason's someone who, but for Heta, would be in the equation for best new tour card holder. He's been playing very well after dominating Q-School. Market's already adjusted though, he's a shade over 40% and we can only get 13/8. Oh well.

van Gerwen/Labanauskas - Seems like we've seen this one a few times this year. It's usually not ended well for Darius. Can't see that changing, van Gerwen isn't value and is overrated in the market again, but not enough to go with the Lithuanian.

Clayton/Mansell - We can't go with Jonny either. Great season, continues to be underrated, very strong consistent player, but Mickey's done just about enough all year to have about a 30% shot at this one, and the market's not sleeping on Clayton and only offering 2/5. Either that, or they think Mansell sucks. Either way, we don't bet on it.

Durrant/Jones - Glen's got his big title but really done nothing since then. Can blame Covid at least. Wayne however still projects as a huge underdog. Durrant would ordinarily be a value bet, but after the Slam I think he has to be off the board until we've seen at least one good performance.

Webster/de Zwaan - Darren lucky to be here, and he's not got a bad draw in Jeffrey, who's had a 2020 that through injury and everything else I think he'd be happy to write off. Still, it is what it is and we can bet it, 0.25u Webster 11/8, while Darren's had a bad season, he's still seemingly had a better one that de Zwaan and this projects the exact opposite way, so we'll bet it.

Dolan/Woodhouse - Brendan continues to perform extremely solidly in this second coming of his career that's seen him up into the top 32, while Luke, after being talk of everyone this time last year, has had a lukewarm (boom boom) 2020, that nine darter in the Home Tour aside. We'll definitely take 0.25u Woodhouse 13/8 though, he has done enough that it projects as a flip, even though we've barely noticed him.

Joyce/Boulton - Final game and one between someone who's got himself involved in some good TV battles, and someone who's been one of the better players on tour in the year, especially in the last week of the PC series where he got into the important events. Appears to be a straight toss up on paper, so we'll go with 0.25u Boulton 6/4 as there's enough there for me.

So we have ten bets, seems like a nice number taking about a third of the games, working tomorrow so expect nothing in running but will be back either tomorrow late or Saturday morning with round 2 picks.

Edit - Skipped straight past the Wade/Zonneveld and O'Connor/van Duijvenbode matches, such was the excitement I had for the Dolan game - both lines look fine so no bets, maybe Niels is a bit underrated but also a bit rusty, so nothing more to add.

Edit 2 - This is what happens when you post in a hurry, I missed the Clemens/Kleermaker game and there's no value there either

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