Saturday 28 November 2020

Round 3

OK, got a bit of time and have been able to put the stats into the master computer from this afternoon, both the bigger punts won, both the longshots lost, so we've been able to make a small profit in round 2, what about round 3?

White/Cullen - Accurate assessment by the market in this one. Seems too close to call, White perhaps counterintuitively has the small advantage, which is reflected in the market oddly enough. Would have thought Cullen having the momentum would have given him the edge. Guess not.

Smith/de Sousa - They've shifted the lines a bit from when they met last time, although it's only a real tiny odds on edge for de Sousa. I'd probably put Jose a bit further ahead, maybe 8/11, but it's not enough to keep printing by betting on the Portuguese major winner. As mentioned previously, the horse has already bolted.

Price/Humphries - 0.1u Humphries 12/5, it's a bit of a small edge this one, so will just go with a tenth of a unit. This line indicates a winning chance of about 30%, I think it's around 40%. Just think there's enough psychological things going on here to not go a quarter unit.

Smith/Heta - Another game that looks like it's an accurate read. Damon is the better player, but Ross is no mug - I think he's got somewhere between a one in three and a 40% chance. He's 6/4, so we'd probably be looking towards Damon if we had to bet, but we don't.

Sedlacek/King - Nice run continues from Karel, while Mervyn got a very good win against Danny Noppert. Market is implying 70/30 in favour of King - which is exactly what the data model throws out. So no bet again.

Wright/Rydz - 0.1u Rydz 9/2, while I did think that the market might have finally picked up on how good Callan is, this line gets thrown up. It's a bit of unchartered territory, but he is really, really good and ought to claim this about one time in three. As such, 9/2 is a must bet.

van Duijvenbode/Woodhouse - Very big opportunity for either of these, especially for Luke (Dirk has at least got a major final on his CV already). Market is saying it's a bit more than a 60/40 edge for Dirk, which is a bit ridiculous, Luke is at least on Dirk's level, or fairly close to it. 0.25u Woodhouse 13/8, Luke actually projects as a favourite around the other way so this looks like a great play even after taking into account Luke having a big inconsistency factor (although Dirk's isn't too clever either).

van Gerwen/de Zwaan - 0.5u van Gerwen 1/3, Jeffrey's looked alright in this event, but I think we can take Michael to come through this often enough that 1/3 is a justifiable punt. This is near 85% for van Gerwen, so we'll go with it.

Weird that we've actually gone FOR van Gerwen. That rarely happens.

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