Sunday 5 September 2021

Any quarter final value?

Probably should have gone for those two marginal shots, oh well

Cullen/Humphries - Nope, nothing here. Line has Joe as a small favourite, this looks spot on.

Dolan/Price - Great win for Brendan earlier, but it doesn't get any easier, Price is nearly a 75% favourite in the market, which is a little bit too short (I've got Dolan at 32%), with the vig in the market we can't consider betting on Brendan though. Maybe if you see him win the bull and you can get on some sort of handicap?

de Sousa/Gawlas - Yeah, probably comes to an end for Adam here, but he's played some really great stuff and if the vig levels off, it's not too far off a speculative tiny punt. Jose didn't play great earlier, or yesterday for that matter, if he's only in second gear and pacing himself then fine.

Wright/Smith - Hope nothing's seriously up with Borland, but we won't speculate. Smith was meh against an equally meh Barry, this looks about 60/40 in favour of Wright on paper, oddschecker has literally just put the line up and it looks to be shaded a bit more in favour of Wright, but nowhere near enough to consider taking Smith.

If we look at semi finals, Price should be about 4/7 against Cullen, 1/2 against Humphries, if Dolan does pull the upset then the semi is going to be extremely close either way. Maybe shade Cullen as 10/11 against evens, the other way around against Humphries. de Sousa against Wright ought to be 4/5 JdS and 5/4 Wright, whereas if Smith were to advance Jose should be 8/15 perhaps? Could be sneaky Jose value. We'll see.

No comments:

Post a Comment