Thursday 2 September 2021

Hungary draw thoughts

Feel sad for Noppert, perfectly understandable he's withdrawn, as one of the few players that remain in our Betting Circle of Trust, it's a potential missed opportunity but darts takes a back seat at this sort of time. Hope we see him back for Gibraltar. Also a shame that, given they did the home nations qual in advance, we've got a first round bye to O'Connor, but hey! The European Tour is back! Let's analyse!

Cullen v Nentjes/de Vos - Geert on Geert violence! You love to see it. Seems a pretty close one on paper, Nentjes looks like he has the slight edge, 10/11 for him would appear to be a fair line. Joe's got to be reasonably happy with this draw. If he were to face Nentjes, he'd be an easy 2-1 favourite.

Cross v Strbik/Smith - Rob got the last minute seed callup, and has a particularly tricky opponent - assuming Ross Smith gets through Peter Strbik. We don't know a great deal about Peter, looks to be a Euro Tour debut, no signs of any form anywhere. Got to think Ross cruises through, and from there, it's a dead coin flip.

Wade v O'Connor - Can go straight to round two here. Willie's been a bit quiet this season, but it's a decent opportunity here, nick this one, and it's not unreasonable - Wade's 65/35 - and he's in with a very good shot of getting to a major. James probably thinking this to be a middle of the road draw, sounds about right.

Petersen v Humphries/Razma - Luke probably the strongest player in the first round, so it's a bit unfortunate for Madars to get this draw, especially given the fuck up in communication re: the World Cup "yeah, Latvia are in, oh, wait". Luke a bit stronger than a 2-1 favourite, and he'd be about the same against Devon, so I guess Petersen is hoping for Razma to pull the upset?

van Gerwen v van der Voort/Gurney - Nice looking section here. First round game seems too close to call, seem to have comparable form, and you'd think that both would be treating this as a final. You'll probably get tips to go against MvG in round two, but it's all going to depend on the price. Michael should still win this two times out of three.

Dolan v Soutar/Rucska - Was an interesting interview with Jozsef on the Weekly Dartscast this morning, and he got the draw he wanted. Don't think Alan's quite the same player from when they played previously, and as such should advance easily enough. Dolan in round two should be a great match up, definitely excited to see this one, Brendan ought to have a 60/40 edge there.

Price v Veenstra/Brown - Another exciting debut here, this time for Richard Veenstra, and it's a decent test against Keegan Brown. We've got a bit on Veenstra from the Challenge Tour, pity he has to miss weekend two (maybe if he loses he can dive into events 9-12?), and Keegan probably deserves to be maybe a 60/40 favourite? Price should be extremely comfortable in round two, something like a 4-1 favourite.

Heta v Whitlock/Webster - Boy, this first round match would have been pretty spicy five years ago when Webster was having his second wind, now maybe not so much, he's declined a fair bit while Simon's not quite at the same level but certainly hasn't had the same amount of dropoff. 70/30 for Simon. Round two, if Whitlock does win, has a lot of automatic story, Damon should have the edge, but not by a huge amount, approaching 60/40.

de Sousa v Vegso/Murnan - We've seen Janos a couple of times previously and he's looked alright, albeit not in the sort of form which we think will cause Joe serious problems. Murnan's been throwing at a 90 clip all season and should be a solid favourite. Against de Sousa, not so much, that's another 4-1 type of match.

Aspinall v Lewis/Brooks - Decent opportunity for Adrian here, who needs the ranking points for multiple reasons. Bradley managed to pick up a Development Tour and should be full of confidence, but Adrian's been playing substantially better. Bradley's got next to no twelve darters and can't finish in fifteen anywhere near often enough. Adie should be something like 1/4, and actually a slight favourite against Nathan.

Clayton v Krcmar/Gawlas - This is a real interesting first round game. Krcmar has been around for ages and looked really good in the time where he's taken steel tip seriously, whereas Gawlas is at the other end of his career, showing flashes but still fairly inconsistent. Actually seems quite close on paper, Krcmar has the edge but it's not by much at all. 55/45. Clayton ought to take the next round three times out of four, so a strong favourite as you'd expect, but not automatic.

Ratajski v Jagica/Williams - Another domestic qualifier I don't know anything about. Not on dartsdatabase. Complete random. Williams has looked a fair bit better than I thought he would do this season, and is probably not drawing dead against Krzysztof - it'd be a big ask, but one in three doesn't seem unreasonable?

Wright v Hempel/Jones - Jake really seems to mostly be making up the numbers on tour having won his tour card, having a huge string of first round defeats and mediocre scoring. Shame, maybe he's more of a second year guy, but he is here, albeit going to be a huge dog to Florian, who should take this more than three times out of four. Wright ought not to have huge trouble, but I can't see this being priced as the 2/5 that I think it ought to be, especially if Florian gets dragged down to Jake's level, so could be a bit of an underdog shot on Saturday?

Suljovic v Engstrom/Borland - Johan's been around for a while, hasn't looked great this year. Borland should have no trouble. Suljovic we're a bit clueless on, as he's been absent for so long, so maybe there's a fair bit of rust that needs shaking off? I don't see Mensur as much better than 60/40 in any case, so this could be one to monitor.

Smith v Beaton/Michael - Steve could do with picking up cash here. Michael much the same, albeit for different reasons. Steve should be too strong, but John's doing enough to have a bit more than a one in three shot. Michael on the other hand just needs to do his job and he should reach the last sixteen, Steve would have a bit more than a one in four chance, but not by much.

van Duijvenbode v Lovely/Barry - Big shot for Keane here, Lovely got through the associate qualifier but hasn't done much on the Challenge Tour and just plodded at low-mid eighties in orthodox averages. No trouble for Keane. Keane against Dirk is incredibly interesting, Dirk's got somewhere between a 60% and a two in three chance, but that should have great pace and be a preview of late round major matches for years to come.

Bets will be up once lines are posted. Can only see outrights at this stage.

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