Friday 24 September 2021

Gib second session bets

lol nentjes

After a bit of a delay, oddschecker is up and running, as is dartsdata which took until the third game to appear but at least had the data. Why they don't switch everything to Dart Connect is beyond me, but it is what it is.

Bunting/Hempel - Hempel's pretty good, and the market seems to be respecting that despite the big name opposition, he's only 7/4. I think that's worth taking, he's only averaging slightly lower than Bunting and actually projects as a tiny favourite based on winning legs - 0.25u Hempel 7/4.

Parody/Neyens - No real data to go on here. Neyens is only 60/40 in the market. I feel this should be a Kenny bet, but we just don't know enough.

Searle/Schindler - What a matchup this is. Close to a Schindler bet. The market seems to be recognising that he's much improved, not giving us better than 13/8, but Ryan is still a favourite at 55%, which doesn't give us quite enough equity to consider betting on Martin, particularly given that Ryan will have accumulated a lot of stage experience in comparison to Martin in the last twelve months.

Jones/Whitlock - This should be a pretty easy Whitlock win. It's not worth the bet though, I'm seeing 79% chances, 4/11 is kind of tempting but there isn't the edge to recommend a play. Seems safe to acca.

Koltsov/Huybrechts - Here's an edge though. Kim's averaging a full five points more than Boris is, which is equating to an 80% chance to take the match. We can get 4/9 in a couple of places which is around the 70% implied chance margin, so we'll go with it - 0.25u Huybrechts 4/9, it's very tempting to go half a unit and with a slight bit more edge (and if Koltsov wasn't so swingy), we would.

Rydz/Hewitt - Rydz is 1/9 lol. I half want to snap off a tiny play on Hewitt, but I won't, I don't think he's quite ready to take on someone of Callan's calibre.

Edhouse/Beaton - Bookies can't separate them. Understandable, they're both scoring 89 a turn for the season and I can only see it 55/45 - in favour of Edhouse. 10/11 take your pick isn't tempting.

Humphries/Clemens - Gabriel is still playing fine darts, it's just Luke's pulled away with a great 2021. Humphries is 4/7, this seems a little harsh on Clemens who I'm seeing with just a shade over 40% chances, but it's not worth the bet.

So two more tips added, let's hope that Florian can undo the damage from this afternoon.

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