Friday 24 September 2021

Gib day 2

At football tomorrow (that sounds nice), so will blast through tomorrow's schedule for bets:

van Duijvenbode/Evetts - Well, Ted got through, but that was a dumpster fire. Maybe not the dumpster fire of the round, but it was not good. Line looks perfect, Dirk should win this 75% of the time. Whether he does or not, I don't know, he's not looked brilliant in 2021 compared to his 2020, but against Ted's performance today it may not matter.

Dolan/King - This will be a real good game to watch. Maybe not one for the casual, but for the purist, they could watch this first to whatever number and double it. Seems like King should actually have the slight edge in this one. Market agrees. Moving on.

Noppert/Harrysson - OK, Andreas beat Keane Barry, so I guess that's a thing. Did he do anything impressive in the process? No. 0.25u Noppert 3/10, would go more but for fear I've completely misread this.

Heta/Hunt - Oh god Hunt. Just gone for a quick check on Adam's stats, and he seems consistent, so maybe he's lost a bunch of close games on variance. Seeing Heta at 80%, will take a bit of 0.25u Heta 2/5, looks alright to me. Only on Unibet so take it while it lasts.

Suljovic/Huybrechts - What do we even make of Mensur right now? I know what we make of Kim, he continues to play great stuff, should have whitewashed Koltsov, but meh, who cares, job done. Market is even. Not going to push my luck with Kim, but it's really close.

Smith/Whitlock - Simon was clinical enough, Michael is a huge step up in quality though. Whitlock is still with chances, I see him as having just short of a 40% shot. Sadly, so does the market.

Wade/Krcmar - Boris just smacked up a World Cup winner with a near 98 average, and he's only being rated as having a 25% shot against Wade? Sure, I'll take a small piece of that, 0.1u Krcmar 3/1, only not going larger given there might be a bit of uncertainty on Boris' match sharpness and that Wade always tends to overperform against his rating. But Boris should take this 35%. That's worth a punt.

Ratajski/Searle - This will be real fun to watch. I can barely pick a winner, maybe seeing Krzysztof as having a 10/11 edge. That's roughly where the market is at, they're on the Searle bandwagon, so it is what it is.

Clayton/Smith-Neale - We don't have much on Adam, but what we do have makes me think it is definitely worth a tiny shot given the price, 0.1u Smith-Neale 13/2. Again, only on Unibet, so grab it.

Petersen/Clemens - Surprisingly evenly matched on my stats, but Gabriel's been a bit underwhelming, still he got a good result today. Market has Gabriel as a 1/2 favourite, that is, shall we say, excessive, but Devon just feels like the dictionary definition of a confidence player, so I'm not going to take him at odds against, especially given the vig in the market.

Wright/Rydz - Should be a fun one if Callan can bring his peak game, but the market indicates he won't do so on a regular enough basis to make it worth a bet. Wright being around the 75-80% range? Seems fair.

Price/Hempel - 0.1u Hempel 5/1, he's very much in our betting circle of trust, it's a big ask, but I'm seeing 30%. He is that good. Gerwyn likely wins, but this is definitely worth the punt.

van Gerwen/Cross - I really wish van Gerwen hadn't have won at the weekend to give him confidence. Then again, with Cross only barely longer than 2/1 and only being at 39% chances, and not looking brilliant today, maybe it's for the best.

Cullen/Murnan - Joe on Joe violence, you love to see it. Market I think is probably fine, it is probably underrating Murnan by a few ticks, but certainly not enough to go for him to pull any sort of upset, given he only barely scraped through today.

Aspinall/Edhouse - This one is kind of similar. Edhouse is probably a bit closer than the market suggests, but it isn't worth the punt. He's 36%, he's 5/2. It's close, but it's not enough.

So we're taking two solid favourites, but not with enough confidence to go yolo on them, then three dogs to see if we can spike on one of them. This is the sort of day that goes wrong a large amount of the time, but if we have our favourites hit then we're close to freerolling on some good upside plays. Let's see what happens.

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