Sunday 26 September 2021

Gib last 16

Solid day yesterday. Two safe bets were extremely safe, Smith-Neale pulled the huge upset to get us well into profit (although looking at the stats I'm not sure how), Krcmar got us pretty close to another and was unfortunate to find Wade playing as well as he is, Hempel didn't work but Gerwyn was playing fine. Eight games this afternoon, let's see if we can find any value.

Whitlock/Evetts - Ted wasn't great but just about did enough to take down van Duijvenbode, while Whitlock was just hitting steady five visit kills to take down Michael Smith in eight. Simon should be comfortable here, the 4/9 he's quoted at looks to be an absolute perfect reflection of where the match is at.

Rydz/Dolan - That was some performance by Callan yesterday to take out the former world champion. That's title winning form. We'll see if it continues, Dolan wasn't brilliant yesterday but steady enough to take out a bit of an underperforming Mervyn King. Rydz is only a small underdog in the market - maybe he should be a fraction longer, but it's not enough to bet on Brendan (57% when he's 4/5 isn't enough edge), I suppose factor in yesterday's games a bit more than larger data and it's fine.

Smith-Neale/Ratajski - Krzysztof was opportunistic against Searle yesterday in a match he had to win, Searle being very close in lots of legs and missing many doubles. Smith-Neale took advantage of Clayton doing the same really, but with a pretty mediocre statline in comparison. ASN is 10/3, that seems like a fair bit of an overadjustment, I wouldn't have thought that if Ratajski were to play Clayton instead he'd be a huge underdog, so I'll leave this alone.

de Sousa/Suljovic - Both did what they had to do yesterday, Jose whitewashing a pedestrian Kenny Neyens, while Mensur was a bit fortunate to edge out Kim Huybrechts in a game that was worth a lot more than the additional grand in prize money he immediately won. Jose is 4/9, it should probably be slightly shorter (I'd say 4/11), Mensur is not as close to Jose as the market thinks, but it's not enough of a gap to bet either.

Price/Heta - Should be a fun one, Gerwyn hitting five visit legs for fun, Heta was a bit up and down but did enough to take out Adam Hunt while never really being threatened, being up 3-0 and 5-1. This is not a bet, the Heta side seems a bit underrated, but he's not got chances to warrant being even 2/1 and there's only 5/2 available, so let's move on.

van Gerwen/Noppert - Michael dispatched Rob Cross easily enough, just the one great leg to finish it, while Noppert was embroiled in a couple of sticky legs in the match against Harrysson but hit enough five visit kills to keep the qualifier at arms' length throughout. We're going to shoot 0.1u Noppert 3/1, I really should go a quarter unit here given I see Danny at over 40% to take the match, but maybe Michael outperforms his season stats comfortably with having finally broken his title duck, and blitzes him with a 108 average or something silly like we know MvG can do.

Wade/Clemens - James was really good against Krcmar, neither player letting anything easy get away, just the two legs in the entire match which dragged on past fifteen darts, and just the two breaks of throw in the whole game. Gabriel booked his European Championship spot taking down Devon Petersen who just let Gabriel win too many easy legs. Wade's about 60/40 in the market, this looks spot on to me.

Cullen/Aspinall - Joe strolled past Joe Murnan who really didn't put up much resistance and only won the one leg in a mutual clown show of doubling, Aspinall meanwhile played maybe the best he'd done all season with three four visit kills against Edhouse, and could have averaged much higher than the 102 he did but for one leg where neither could hit trebles. The market has this close to evens with Joe having the tiny edge, I think that's a fair enough assessment.

So just the one flier on Noppert, they generally seem to have where the name players are at correctly enough these days to not leave a huge amount of value on the table. Should be able to check in before the quarters.

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