Sunday 25 September 2022

Belgium last 16

What an evening session. With the afternoon looking mostly chalky outside of the surprise upset of Heta, we lost both MvG and Wright to blow the tournament completely wide open. Could be any number of winners, but for now, let's see who we think will make the quarters.

Zonneveld/Gilding - Couple of deciding leg victors here, Niels got the huge scalp of Wright while Gilding outlasted Dimitri. Andrew's obviously the better player right now, but Niels is showing enough to take this around a third of the time. He is priced at 2/1, so nothing happening here.

Rodriguez/Schindler - Rusty nicked a decider against Heta to get to this stage, while Martin had few problems with Sedlacek. Got to fancy the German to progress to the quarters in a wide open section with just him as a seed remaining, he should do this a little bit less frequently than Gilding ought to, and is correctly priced ever so slightly longer than Gilding is. No bet here either.

van Duijvenbode/Clayton - Both players came through deciding legs against King and Barry respectively, Dirk scored alright while Jonny will probably need to improve a little bit to be competitive here. Clayton's a little bit of a favourite in the market, whereas I'd probably be pricing it as a straight coin flip. We can only get 6/5 on Dirk which is not long enough a price to consider punting.

Cross/Clemens - Gabriel looked great in destroying Ryan Meikle (lol at the tipper that said Clemens is out of form and just punt against him continually on general principle, seemingly not considering prices or opponents), while Rob needed ten legs in a little bit of a grind against de Decker. Rob should advance here, roughly two times out of three, Clemens is rated in the market a little bit of a longer shot, but again not enough to start thinking about a bet as there's not a solid edge to go with.

Searle/de Sousa - Ryan won through 6-1 despite not hitting a leg within fifteen darts, while Jose looked good against a Ross Smith averaging well into the 100's over all eleven legs. It feels like on current form that Jose should be favourite and he does have a small edge in the market, season long rates Searle a 55/45 favourite, which wouldn't be enough to consider at 11/10, but I think Jose's done his best work most recently and Ryan the opposite, so we won't touch this one.

Aspinall/Chisnall - The only all-English matchup, both players put up similar showings, Chizzy averaging 98 dropping two legs to Klaasen, Nathan less than a point below dropping one leg to Hughes. It's an intriguing matchup and one which I think Dave looks pretty live in, I thought Nathan might have been favoured in the market but it's a match where we can't get evens on either player. With Nathan being ascendant in recent weeks I think we can avoid this one again.

Cullen/Noppert - Joe didn't have any issues taking out Dennis Nilsson, while Danny needed all eleven legs to dispose of Madars Razma from 3-1 down with a real scrappy final leg. Seems to me as if Noppert has a similar edge as Chisnall has in the previous game, but we can only get 10/11 again, so we can't bet this one.

Huybrechts/Lewis - Kim sensationally took out MvG who missed infinity darts at double in the decisive leg to allow Huybrechts to take out 134 for the match, while Lewis looked really solid in cruising past Krcmar dropping just the one leg. Adie comes in as a moderate favourite in the 60/40 range, that looks pretty much spot on to me.

So we have no bets today. Looks like they're just starting the Asian Championship final right now between Perez and Nebrida, we've seen Christian a few times and he seems alright but basically just a guy on the top end of the game, while Paolo isn't a familiar name but someone who several pundits speak highly of, so let's see if he can lock up a Grand Slam spot to go with the worlds spot they both have already. Ilagan and Toru Suzuki will join them in returns to Ally Pally having reached the semis, got to feel for Baba who was 5-2 up for a worlds spot and then completely lost scoring power until the final leg, where he missed at least four, possibly six match darts. Oof.

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