Saturday 10 September 2022

ET11 round 3

Well, Beaton worked. Can't complain. Other than that, the tournament has been completely chalky, with just DvD, Noppert (in a decider) and Searle dropping out, the key upshot is that Ratajski is keeping his Euros hopes alive. With a lot of seeds going through, I'm not expecting a great deal of value given latest trends indicating that the bookies are tightening up to my opinions a fair bit, and they've not been too far off on known players in the first place. But I can find a couple of plays:

0.1u Gurney 2/1 vs Cullen, you pretty much need the 365 line for it to be a play. I've been laying Cullen a lot of late, so maybe there's something in his underlying stats I've missed, but he needed a 12 in a decider to beat someone clearly worse than Daryl, who's just beaten someone in my opinion better than Cullen. That's worth a small play at 2/1.

0.1u Woodhouse 4/1 vs van den Bergh, he's just come off a solid couple of wins, Dimitri I feel is solid but not unbeatably solid, so with me seeing Luke at 30%, I'll take a line that indicates he should be 20% for a small play.

That's the lot, everything else seems in line. I will almost certainly not be able to make any sort of quarter final analysis.

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