Saturday 24 September 2022

Round one mixed, round two better?

Just about managed to scrape a tiny profit after Gilding completed the day with a decider win over Whitlock. Mostly went well apart from Kevin Doets - taking nothing away from Dennis, who played better than expected, particularly in the early stages, but if Kevin wasn't scoring poorly he was missing doubles in clumps in multiple legs, a simple B-game performance would have seen him at worst 4-4, but that didn't come. So we hit the last 32, the big takeaway from day one was that Smith got the win over Beaton, which barring a miracle run from Ryan Meikle, or someone binking the whole thing from nowhere, sets the Grand Prix field. Seemed a fairly poor day in terms of quality overall, even taking into account that there were a lot of domestic qualifiers from which we weren't expecting much (if anything, they all overperformed outside of possibly Baetens), so hopefully things improve today. Another 16 games today, no oddschecker so just comparing 365, Betfair and Ladbrokes.

Heta/Rodriguez - Should be a routine win for Damon, Rusty did what he needed yesterday but didn't look great in the process and has less than a one in four chance for this one, and the lines match appropriately.

Clemens/Meikle - Ryan needs the win to keep slim Grand Prix hopes alive and this isn't a bad draw against a promoted seed. Clemens is hanging around high enough to get those promotions and should be a favourite here, but only a small one as I'm seeing roughly 55/45 in the German's favour. We can only get very slightly odds against on Meikle so the line is set correctly.

Schindler/Sedlacek - Back to back German representation, and it's another back to back seed promotion, this time in Schindler, he'll play Karel who had few problems eliminating a domestic qualifier. Appears slightly more German-favoured this one, but just barely with Karel having over a 40% shot as far as I can see, 7/4 is not quite tempting enough to pull the trigger but you're certainly not going to want to put Martin in any accumulators as that's simply a bad bet.

Searle/Brooks - Bradley got one of the shocks of the round in outlasting Dobey, and he's got a decent draw against an up and down (at least of late) Ryan Searle, but despite that Ryan ought to be a prohibitive favourite with an 85% win chance. We can get a fair bit better than that on 365, 0.25u Searle 3/10

de Sousa/Smith - Ross has done the important job and can't really get any insurance against a miracle run without getting one himself, so this is a bit of a free hit against a resurging de Sousa. Appears the tightest game so far with the Portuguese ace being slightly favoured, weirdly the books are reflecting this as well.

Chisnall/Klaasen - Dave's just been quietly doing his work this season without making any real headlines, Jelle's done a good job of rebuilding on the WDF and secondary circuits, but looks outclassed here with Dave likely to win 75% of the time. He's a little bit shorter than that everywhere I see, so nothing doing here.

van Duijvenbode/King - Dirk will have liked that Mervyn couldn't get the 6-0 job done, Mervyn won't like letting Wouter come back into it from 5-0, the difference in quality now makes this look like just a one in four game for King, the market is there or there abouts.

Aspinall/Hughes - Nathan's got a moderately tricky draw here, Jamie was a bit up and down early but pulled away from VVDV to claim the 6-3 win despite the lower average. The model actually says a coinflip. We can get 6/4 across the board, which would normally be a play, but there is a fair bit of inconsistency in Jamie's stats, which is enough to pull me away from taking the shot. I'm looking full year here, if I narrowed it down to a bit more recently, Nathan's improving form over the last few months probably turn the projection more into his favour.

Cross/de Decker - Rob can't mind this draw against one of the local contingent, Mike struggling a bit against one of the local qualifiers, and Rob is at around 80% in the market. I'm seeing it a bit closer than that - Mike has a bit of a consistency issue, but if we ignore that then I'm seeing a bit more than a one in three shot. Pull that back to 30% from the 37% that the projection gives, and pop in a bit of home crowd support, and it's nearly worth a play at 3/1. Mediocre play yesterday is probably the deciding factor in not betting.

Clayton/Barry - Keane was one of the better players yesterday, cruising to an easy win over Baggish, and this isn't the worst draw against Clayton, Jonny being a little bit up and down of late, at least in ranked events. That said, I'm only seeing a one in four chance for Keane, and we can't even get 5/2 in this one. Sigh. Another correct line.

van den Bergh/Gilding - Andrew had the second highest average yesterday at just a fraction under a ton, and he's going to need all of that against the home town favourite. Such is the respect for Gilding in the market, we can't even get 6/4, which is what I'd need in a game which I'm calling as a pure flip. Would think about 11/8 but the crowd should be nicely warmed up at this stage, although Andrew doesn't seem the type to be affected by a partizan atmosphere.

Wright/Zonneveld - Peter is priced as a very comfortable winner against Niels, who got the win we thought he would against Soutar but never really got into top gear. Think he's got about a one in four shot, we can get 4/1 basically everywhere, that's not quite enough given a plodding performance yesterday, but Wright is certainly not safe to put into an accumulator.

Cullen/Nilsson - Another big favourite game here, Dennis pulling off the shock of the round but will be an even bigger dog here against Cullen, a winner at this level earlier this month. I'm seeing anywhere between 1/8 and 1/11 for Joe here, if anything it could be even shorter, I only see 5% chances for Dennis. I doubt he can play as well as he did in the first 4-5 legs yesterday for long enough to threaten Cullen in this one.

van Gerwen/Huybrechts - Number one seed against the number two Belgian in Belgium, this ought to be spicy, Kim was not great against West in another game that underwhelmed and will need a much improved effort to threaten MvG here. Chances look right in between 20% and 25%, so only being offered 3/1 I can't recommend any play here.

Lewis/Krcmar - Late game for Boris here after a very early one yesterday where he dropped just the one leg to Menzies despite only averaging in the mid 80's. Adie's been promoted to the 16 seed for this one, just sneaking in following a Pro Tour win a couple of months back, but should not be a big favourite, this feels 55/45 to me, sadly the best we can get is 11/8.

Noppert/Razma - Last game sees the newest new major champion against Razma, who was given a decent test by Andy Baetens but did just enough to get over the line. This is a big step up in quality and Madars only rates to win one out of four games here, lines look very good again.

So not a lot doing here, just the relatively small play (given the line, we normally think about half a unit that short) on Searle. Will report back later, on this as well as the Asian Championship which looks like it's getting to the business end right now. Would say some stuff about the England Classic, but data looks to be non-existent from what I can see.

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