Sunday 25 September 2022

Takeaways from the afternoon session

Main takeaway is that de Sousa and Clayton looked good. Really good. I don't know what sort of correlation there is between playing excellently in the Sunday afternoon and taking the whole thing to the hoop, but these look like good signs for the players in question, so I've had a bit of each way on both of them just for a bit of interest. Noppert also did well to come back, other than that there was a bit of a lack of standout performances, so it's fairly hard to see past those three for who's going to take it. The Schindler/Gilding quarter final is going to be a really interesting watch, not sure about the rest.

As we didn't see any bets in the afternoon, it's completely natural to not see anything here, if the field's such that the estimations are accurate in a field of 16, then it'll take something special to find anything when that field has been cut in half. Gilding at 10/11 on 365 is close to being worth a punt, I'm thinking he's a few percentage points ahead of Schindler up at 58% to win the match, I would probably fire at evens to be fair. Clayton is perhaps a little bit too short against Clemens, I've got Gabriel taking it 30% of the time and we can get 3/1 on 365, so it's close, but here we've got the immediate standout performance from Clayton to worry about so I can easily pass that one. de Sousa/Chisnall is priced with Dave having a small edge, that looks right as I see 55/45, so an easier pass than the first two (especially with how JdS looked against Searle). That just leaves Lewis against Noppert, here the market thinks Noppert two thirds of the time - I'm not sure how fine I am with that, Danny looked a fair bit better earlier today, but Adie looked better yesterday and should be extremely fresh having only dropped the two legs so far this weekend. A projection safely into the 40% range would be fine to look at, but there's huge vig there. If we could get the inverse of Noppie at 4/9 which I can see on Betfair, I'd go with the shot, but we can't. So I'll continue with no bets.

I've had the chance to now look at the Asian Championship - congrats to Perez for winning it, but I surely can't be the only one that's a bit disappointed with the standard. Sure, it's the first big comp there for literally years with a lot on the line, so there's nerves as well as rust, and I already made the decision to only track from the knockout stages, but the winning averages were a bit shocking. In ascending order we had 74, 78, 78, 79, 79, 82, 83, 83, 84, 86, 90, 91, 92, 93, 96. It's a perfect 5-5-5 split between 70, 80 and 90 average, and there was only the one match at elite levels, and that was a 5-0 drubbing. Still, I think at this stage we should mostly be happy that the game is starting to get back going again in the region, and maybe we see a proper tour return there in 2023.

I'm now off to find this stream of the WDF event that supposedly exists to try to hack some data.

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