Saturday 3 September 2022

Round one good, round two change of strategy

Not a bad opening day going 4/4, tournament seems quite chalky so far but we did have some moderately weak domestic qualifiers which created some betting mismatches, they didn't play badly but aren't at the required levels yet. Williams dodged a bullet, but we take those.

Tournament also marred with withdrawals, Rowby you can understand given the circumstances, but who knows why Price dropped. Shame really.

We've got a bit of a change of plan here in round two in that the only real value appears to be in taking what are fairly significant underdogs in two horse races, so we go a tenth of a unit on each of the following:

Rusty 7/2
Sedlacek 13/5
Lukeman 12/5
Bunting 6/4

RJR didn't look brilliant, but this line seems like a huge Noppert overadjustment to his actual level of play. Sedlacek we identified in advance. Lukeman is probably mostly just not believing Cullen's level of play. Bunting I think we should really be going a quarter of a unit given the perceived year long edge, but with Nathan being better of late and not having access to the master computer to query a smaller sample size, I'll play it cautiously despite Stephen getting the whitewash yesterday.

A few others were considered - Krcmar is very close but I'm always cautious when someone has an effective free win then gets thrown at an elite player like Humphries is. Similar with Barney, 2/1 isn't quite enough, but if we had a couple of extra ticks I'd probably play if he looked good in round one (and we have no data) and if I could see more recent data on de Sousa. Meikle is also fairly close, but this seems like the sort of game where he has a reasonable chance to convert statistics into results and doesn't do it. 5/2 instead of 2/1 and I probably say fuck it and bet.

Should be able to get last sixteen thoughts, but as I've not modelled that far in advance don't expect tips unless something seems obviously (but not a palp) out of line.

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