Friday 9 September 2022

ET11 round one

Absurd amount of withdrawals again. The PDC must rectify this next season - either by moving the home nation qualifier back to the day before the event, by increasing the power of the DRA to enforce penalties, both, or something else entirely. Ideas? Anyway, there are twelve games today, oddschecker hasn't got its arse in gear, so let's do this.

Kleermaker/Evans - Seems disturbingly close on the projections, Evans has really disappointed with a card, while Martijn has got more results than his stats suggest, but it's been a quieter 2022 regardless. 5/2 on Evans would be the play to take, I should take it, but it just doesn't feel right.

Brooks/Williams - Ought to be easy enough for Scott, Bradley's not really pushed on this year, 70/30 looks right and the market is in that ballpark.

Barry/Woodhouse - Should be a good one, appears very evenly matched, as such the side to take is Woodhouse who is naturally priced as the dog, but too small a dog to fire a bet.

Hughes/Larsson - Can't really see Daniel troubling Jamie, but Hughes is priced too short to consider.

Sedlacek/Williams - This ought to be fun as well, this feels very much like the Barry game where they're too close to call, but there's not quite enough value on the underdog (Karel here) to actually recommend a bet. It's very, very close though, if you can get north of 6/4 take it.

Horvat/Smith - Lacking data on Dragutin, Jeff at shorter than 1/2 isn't exuding value, think he should have more than enough but I have to pass at that price.

van Trijp/Henderson - Actually got more data on Danny than I thought, as such I think that the 60/40 in favour of Hendo that I've got in projections seems to have enough sample size to be somewhat accurate, the market thinks John's a little better than that, but not enough to warrant a bet.

Rock/Nentjes - We could see this one in majors for years to come, will look to watch this one for sure. Geert is talented, but not at Josh's level right now, Rock at 2/7 best price is a bit of an overreaction (I'd have said 4/11) but not too much.

Gurney/Scott - Daryl was up and down last weekend while Connor's been quiet this year after an OK start. Gurney is priced too short here, 0.1u Scutt 5/2, projections I have give him just over 40% so I'll take this small stab.

Soutar/Wenig - Lukas has got a fair bit of experience this year while Alan's regressed in 2022 quite a bit, so much the market has it surprisingly close, I'd have thought a Wenig value bet would be on with a projection of 48%, but we can barely get odds against.

White/van Barneveld - Great first round tie here, Ian really needs a win, this is another that seems too close to call, market has them 10/11 the pair, no interest at that price.

Clemens/Lukeman - Another which the market has very close. Lukeman correctly is given the tiny edge.

So not much here. Scutt is the play, Evans and Sedlacek very close.

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