My takes on what'll happen in tonight's Euro Tour qualifier and the two Players Championship events this weekend won't be up until at the earliest Monday, or more likely Tuesday - I'm away for the weekend without access to be able to update. The qualifier should be of great interest - there's some big names there including Kyle Anderson, Steve Beaton, Chris Dobey, Brendan Dolan, Mervyn King, Adrian Lewis, Robert Thornton, Raymond van Barneveld and both the Websters. That's very strong and with 18 places up for grabs, it's going to take some good play for the upcoming players who have got good starts to the season to even qualify, add on that only Gary Anderson out of the top 16 in the Pro Tour rankings didn't enter, going more than one and done will be really tricky.
I haven't watched a single dart of the Premier League, but the level of parity is very surprising - even Huybrechts and Klaasen, who are currently bottom and two points adrift of Lewis, are getting in positions to win, Kim drawing three, Klaasen winning one, drawing another, being in a good position against Barney yesterday etc. With three weeks to go before the bottom two cutoff, it's still wide open, Klaasen's run in isn't the hardest, Huybrechts' is tougher, they both have to play Lewis which will be critical. Meanwhile at the top, Wright and van Gerwen look like the picks so far, but it wouldn't take much for someone just below to go on a run and claw them back. I might watch some of next week just because it's Rotterdam, we'll see.
Friday, 10 March 2017
Sunday, 5 March 2017
UK Open - Aftermath
Firstly, huge congrats to Peter Wright on picking up the ranking title that he's been due. Sure he may say that with no van Gerwen or Taylor present it might not feel the same, but it's got to be better to have got there when the opportunity presented itself, rather than wondering what might have happened if van Gerwen hadn't injured himself and not got a title.
Also congrats to Gerwyn Price, he rode his luck at times but has to be happy with making a televised final, qualifying for the Grand Slam (not guaranteed, but for all intents and purposes he's there), a nice payday and move up the rankings.
As far as betting was concerned this was an unprecedented disaster - dropping six units to go into the red overall, and hugely down for the year. It's hard to work out what went wrong at this stage, and whether to say I made any huge errors in my picks or whether it is just variance. It's fairly gutting to have four of the last seven bets to be full unit plays and to go down in ridiculously close situations when they previously had winning positions - Klaasen leading 6-2 on throw against van der Voort, being drawn back to 9-9 then missing a match dart and having Vincent take out 106. Huybrechts breaking to lead 9-8 and throw for the match, kick off 180 then only leave 140 after twelve darts, and you then hit two trebles and miss the double, let Norris equalise and then miss bull for the match in the decider. Whitlock throwing at 7-4, then losing five legs on the bounce, he did get it back to 9-9 and while Gurney finishing in twelve darts on throw is difficult to beat, it should never get to that stage. Norris leaving 40 after twelve darts to break Price at 9-9, missing the lot and having Price kill 100 to hold then allowing yourself to be broken in 15 darts. Picking up just a couple of those makes cuts the loss by more than half. Oh well, I'll plug the data in from this tournament (it seems to be fairly complete from boards 1 and 2, it's missing the Whitlock/Quantock match entirely and gave up on Gurney/Roy after three legs, but other than that it seems fine), play with the figures and see what happens.
New top 20 in the adjusted rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Raymond van Barneveld (UP 1)
7 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 1)
8 Phil Taylor
9 Mensur Suljovic
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts (UP 1)
12 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 1)
13 Ian White (UP 1)
14 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
15 Michael Smith (DOWN 2)
16 Alan Norris
17 Gerwyn Price (UP 2)
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton (DOWN 2)
20 Terry Jenkins
Some other notes from people that did well - Cullen's now one spot outside the top 20, van der Voort returns to the top 30, O'Connor's close to the top 64, Cross is inside the top 80, Tabern's just outside it.
Also congrats to Gerwyn Price, he rode his luck at times but has to be happy with making a televised final, qualifying for the Grand Slam (not guaranteed, but for all intents and purposes he's there), a nice payday and move up the rankings.
As far as betting was concerned this was an unprecedented disaster - dropping six units to go into the red overall, and hugely down for the year. It's hard to work out what went wrong at this stage, and whether to say I made any huge errors in my picks or whether it is just variance. It's fairly gutting to have four of the last seven bets to be full unit plays and to go down in ridiculously close situations when they previously had winning positions - Klaasen leading 6-2 on throw against van der Voort, being drawn back to 9-9 then missing a match dart and having Vincent take out 106. Huybrechts breaking to lead 9-8 and throw for the match, kick off 180 then only leave 140 after twelve darts, and you then hit two trebles and miss the double, let Norris equalise and then miss bull for the match in the decider. Whitlock throwing at 7-4, then losing five legs on the bounce, he did get it back to 9-9 and while Gurney finishing in twelve darts on throw is difficult to beat, it should never get to that stage. Norris leaving 40 after twelve darts to break Price at 9-9, missing the lot and having Price kill 100 to hold then allowing yourself to be broken in 15 darts. Picking up just a couple of those makes cuts the loss by more than half. Oh well, I'll plug the data in from this tournament (it seems to be fairly complete from boards 1 and 2, it's missing the Whitlock/Quantock match entirely and gave up on Gurney/Roy after three legs, but other than that it seems fine), play with the figures and see what happens.
New top 20 in the adjusted rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Raymond van Barneveld (UP 1)
7 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 1)
8 Phil Taylor
9 Mensur Suljovic
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts (UP 1)
12 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 1)
13 Ian White (UP 1)
14 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
15 Michael Smith (DOWN 2)
16 Alan Norris
17 Gerwyn Price (UP 2)
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton (DOWN 2)
20 Terry Jenkins
Some other notes from people that did well - Cullen's now one spot outside the top 20, van der Voort returns to the top 30, O'Connor's close to the top 64, Cross is inside the top 80, Tabern's just outside it.
UK Open Semi Finals
Oh joy, another two full unit plays going down in deciding legs to go with the Klaasen one from yesterday, that hurts a bunch and puts me down overall. Some cracking quality games though, Wright/van Barneveld was unbelievable.
The draw gives us Wright/Gurney and Norris/Price. Gurney's been installed as about a 5/1 dog, and I'm not looking to play on this one. Wright holds throw from the stats I have over 78% of the time compared to Gurney's 61%, which is a big gap. Gurney breaking and holding in any given 2 leg spell is only a 13% shot, and he needs to do that and have Wright not do that - only problem is Wright would break/hold 30% of the time. Seems too tough an ask.
Norris/Price has Norris about a 55/45 favourite. Both of them have 84 legs won in my database - same amount of 12 darters, but Norris has won 49 legs in fifteen darts compared to 39 for Price, the other ten legs going eighteen darts seven times, with the rest going over 18. At the first break, Norris should lead on these stats over half the time with about a quarter of them being level, based on Norris holding 11% more often than Price would. It's going to need Price to continue his very solid checkout percentages to keep this one as tight as the bookies suggest, and I think these numbers justify 1u Norris 8/11.
The draw gives us Wright/Gurney and Norris/Price. Gurney's been installed as about a 5/1 dog, and I'm not looking to play on this one. Wright holds throw from the stats I have over 78% of the time compared to Gurney's 61%, which is a big gap. Gurney breaking and holding in any given 2 leg spell is only a 13% shot, and he needs to do that and have Wright not do that - only problem is Wright would break/hold 30% of the time. Seems too tough an ask.
Norris/Price has Norris about a 55/45 favourite. Both of them have 84 legs won in my database - same amount of 12 darters, but Norris has won 49 legs in fifteen darts compared to 39 for Price, the other ten legs going eighteen darts seven times, with the rest going over 18. At the first break, Norris should lead on these stats over half the time with about a quarter of them being level, based on Norris holding 11% more often than Price would. It's going to need Price to continue his very solid checkout percentages to keep this one as tight as the bookies suggest, and I think these numbers justify 1u Norris 8/11.
UK Open Quarter Finals
Looks like Wright is going to have to do it the hard way. Barney's easily the worst person he could draw, this does open up potential each way coups, Whitlock and Huybrechts at 9/1 and 10/1 respectively might be worth a play and hope they don't draw the Wright/Barney winner, not sure about anyone else at current market value.
The lines for today's games all seem very even outside of the main event with Huybrechts being the shortest priced player at 8/11, while the lines say Wright wins two times out of three. Looking at the last one first, we did analyse this for the Premier League preview article, which had Wright as the favourite - but not by much. Factoring in more data than when I looked at that one, and I think it becomes closer. That said, Wright's started better in the Premier League, and his results to get here look a lot more convincing than Barney's, who's had to work to beat people who were last relevant when Anderson was still with the BDO. Hard not to back Barney at nearly 2/1, but I'll hold off on this.
First up is Huybrechts at 8/11 against Norris at 13/10, I think that Kim has had the scare against Cullen and should be stronger for it, and he was incredible against Evetts, Norris hasn't been truly tested by any of Meeuwisse, van de Pas or Smith. The figures on both have Huybrechts as a solidly better player, mainly through hitting a lot more twelve darters than Norris does, this is enough for me to fire 1u Huybrechts 8/11.
Game two is Price at 11/10 against White at 5/6. White's not had a real tough game so far, a lineup of Barham, Shepherd and Lukeman is not that difficult and he's dropped 12 legs so far. Price has dropped fifteen against Pipe, Pallett and Hogan, which is considerably more difficult. On the figures I have, White is a lot better on hitting 12 darters, at 12% as opposed to 7%, but Price has more in fifteen or less (including those killed in 12), making it only a percentage point different as to how often each player should hold their throw. Very even contest so I'll pass this one.
Last game to look at is Whitlock against Gurney, Gurney's lost just 10 legs in getting through Roy, Webster and van der Voort, Whitlock was untouchable against Quantock but has been pushed a bit more by van Duijvenbode and O'Connor. Whitlock has the form - winning on the floor while Gurney needed to start in round 2, on the information I have Whitlock is hitting more twelve darters, more fifteen darters, Gurney has a small edge in having less won legs go past 18 darts, but Whitlock holds 75% of the time to Gurney's 67%, which is a decent edge. Is it enough to bet at 4/5? Just about I think, 1u Whitlock 4/5.
Should be able to look into the semi finals in a bit of depth, the final itself given the quick turn around time would just be an indication of a bet and nothing else.
The lines for today's games all seem very even outside of the main event with Huybrechts being the shortest priced player at 8/11, while the lines say Wright wins two times out of three. Looking at the last one first, we did analyse this for the Premier League preview article, which had Wright as the favourite - but not by much. Factoring in more data than when I looked at that one, and I think it becomes closer. That said, Wright's started better in the Premier League, and his results to get here look a lot more convincing than Barney's, who's had to work to beat people who were last relevant when Anderson was still with the BDO. Hard not to back Barney at nearly 2/1, but I'll hold off on this.
First up is Huybrechts at 8/11 against Norris at 13/10, I think that Kim has had the scare against Cullen and should be stronger for it, and he was incredible against Evetts, Norris hasn't been truly tested by any of Meeuwisse, van de Pas or Smith. The figures on both have Huybrechts as a solidly better player, mainly through hitting a lot more twelve darters than Norris does, this is enough for me to fire 1u Huybrechts 8/11.
Game two is Price at 11/10 against White at 5/6. White's not had a real tough game so far, a lineup of Barham, Shepherd and Lukeman is not that difficult and he's dropped 12 legs so far. Price has dropped fifteen against Pipe, Pallett and Hogan, which is considerably more difficult. On the figures I have, White is a lot better on hitting 12 darters, at 12% as opposed to 7%, but Price has more in fifteen or less (including those killed in 12), making it only a percentage point different as to how often each player should hold their throw. Very even contest so I'll pass this one.
Last game to look at is Whitlock against Gurney, Gurney's lost just 10 legs in getting through Roy, Webster and van der Voort, Whitlock was untouchable against Quantock but has been pushed a bit more by van Duijvenbode and O'Connor. Whitlock has the form - winning on the floor while Gurney needed to start in round 2, on the information I have Whitlock is hitting more twelve darters, more fifteen darters, Gurney has a small edge in having less won legs go past 18 darts, but Whitlock holds 75% of the time to Gurney's 67%, which is a decent edge. Is it enough to bet at 4/5? Just about I think, 1u Whitlock 4/5.
Should be able to look into the semi finals in a bit of depth, the final itself given the quick turn around time would just be an indication of a bet and nothing else.
Saturday, 4 March 2017
UK Open Round 5
LOL Lewis
Betting was pretty much a trainwreck. Evetts bet was an outsider which needed two things to happen, when Huybrechts averages as he did it's not even close to one of them happening, Klaasen being broken in a deciding leg having held a solid lead and having a match dart is awful, Michael and Pallett really didn't show
Scanning the lines, White/Lukeman (nice job on beating Dobey, didn't see that coming) looks to be lined up right, Hogan/Price being close to evens seems fine, given Hogan's wins I don't see why Price isn't a dog but you can't just look at form over the last 24 hours, Whitlock being solidly ahead of O'Connor seems fine, 1/5 or so is too short, Smith being a small favourite over Norris also seems right, Gurney seems a bit too short against van der Voort, Klaasen wasn't even that short and he's clearly better than Gurney, so 0.5u van der Voort 2/1, Huybrechts against Cullen is another exciting matchup, Kim being more or less 4/7 across the board looks like it is worth a piece if he plays anywhere near as well as he did against Evetts, 1u Huybrechts 4/7, which just leaves Cross against Wright - Wright seems too short to bet, but I'm not sure if Cross can nick it enough given the form Wright's in.
Betting was pretty much a trainwreck. Evetts bet was an outsider which needed two things to happen, when Huybrechts averages as he did it's not even close to one of them happening, Klaasen being broken in a deciding leg having held a solid lead and having a match dart is awful, Michael and Pallett really didn't show
Scanning the lines, White/Lukeman (nice job on beating Dobey, didn't see that coming) looks to be lined up right, Hogan/Price being close to evens seems fine, given Hogan's wins I don't see why Price isn't a dog but you can't just look at form over the last 24 hours, Whitlock being solidly ahead of O'Connor seems fine, 1/5 or so is too short, Smith being a small favourite over Norris also seems right, Gurney seems a bit too short against van der Voort, Klaasen wasn't even that short and he's clearly better than Gurney, so 0.5u van der Voort 2/1, Huybrechts against Cullen is another exciting matchup, Kim being more or less 4/7 across the board looks like it is worth a piece if he plays anywhere near as well as he did against Evetts, 1u Huybrechts 4/7, which just leaves Cross against Wright - Wright seems too short to bet, but I'm not sure if Cross can nick it enough given the form Wright's in.
UK Open Round 4
Dropped another tiny fraction of a unit on round 3, very surprised that Baxter was able to pull through. Round 4 coming up, some more interesting matchups:
Alan Tabern - John Michael: Close to even money this one, Tabern came through Robertson, Carroll and King, while Michael beat Hudson and Dolan, both in deciding legs. I think Michael has the edge here in terms of limited stats I have on each of them, and he's probably been playing more frequently at a higher level, so I'll lean for 0.5u Michael 10/11
Gerwyn Price - Dave Pallett: Price came through Pipe fairly comfortably and is installed as a 2-1 favourite against Pallett, who saw off Andy Jenkins and then Beaton. The numbers I have on Pallett are actually really good, and Beaton isn't that much worse than Price is. Question is whether the price makes it worth the bet, I'll go for yes: 0.5u Pallett 7/4
Ronnie Baxter - Willie O'Connor: Baxter rolled back the years beating Rowley, North and Webster, while O'Connor beat Lennon and Todd convincingly, nearly hitting a nine in the process. Those scorelines tempt me towards him given he's only a tiny favourite, but I have such limited information on Baxter and he's already beaten a better player than O'Connor this weekend, so will leave it alone.
Mark Webster - Daryl Gurney: A World Championship rematch with Gurney being installed as a bit more than a 60% favourite - that match was only 4-3, and while Gurney beat Palmer and Roy, Webster beat Bunting then came from behind against Twell to edge it. Gurney's numbers however are solidly better, so I'll agree with the bookied and think he has a decent but not prohibitive edge.
Chris Dobey - Martin Lukeman: Dobey's much more experienced than Lukeman, who survived infinite match darts in round 3 to win 10-9, he should advance comfortably but not really knowing too much about Lukeman I don't want to punt when the best we can get has Dobey as greater than a 75% favourite.
Kim Huybrechts - Ted Evetts: Kim had issues with Woods, only getting through 10-8, while Evetts beat Milford and then Gilding with a convincing 10-5 scoreline. Huybrechts' stats are a lot better than Evetts over a much bigger sample, but we are getting a big price on Ted and I think he has played a big stage enough that he can nick this enough to be worth the shot: 0.25u Evetts 7/2
Ryan Searle - Rob Cross: I have no figures on either, Cross is a small favourite, while Searle is fairly local so may have some support. Cross has done a bit better on the tour this season and clearly likes the venue, but I don't know enough on Searle to punt.
Benito van de Pas - Alan Norris: Benito's only a small favourite, both had fairly easy passes through round 3 in comfortable matchups, I think this will be tight and Benito's overall better play may just outdo Norris having the better recent form.
Jelle Klaasen - Vincent van der Voort: Surprised that Vincent was able to advance that easily over Ronny Huybrechts, while Klaasen had a bit of a struggle with Jonny Clayton before getting through 10-7. I think Klaasen should be able to lock in to what is a great opportunity to go very deep, and the odds look OK given Vincent's poor form - 1u Klaasen 5/11
Joe Cullen - Cristo Reyes: Disappointed that this isn't on either televised board (think board 2 is streamed?), as this is an even game between developing players in form. Reyes got a bye while Cullen dismantled Thornton, should be close and the odds reflect that.
Kirk Shepherd - Ian White: Shepherd's been playing at a good level, but this is a bit of a step up, White easily dealt with Barham while Shepherd took out Barilli then Wayne Jones in a close battle. White's nearly 4/1 on which doesn't seem worth a bet, and I don't know if Kirk steps up enough to bet the dog.
Jermaine Wattimena - Michael Smith: Smith pulled away from Henderson after the game was even early, while Jermaine surprised a few by taking out Kyle Anderson. Smith seems in the best form over the last few weeks that he's been in for a while, but if Wattimena keeps this up he can probably snipe the win enough that the 25% chance the odds indicate seems correct.
Paul Hogan - Adrian Lewis: Lewis looked a bit sluggish in beating Wade but did enough to get through, while Hogan, in being a Riley's qualifier to beat Gary Anderson, caused the biggest story in the UK Open since a Riley's qualifier beat Gary Anderson. I think Lewis' numbers are better than his form suggests, Hogan is not completely dead obviously, but Lewis is a big favourite.
Simon Whitlock - Dirk van Duijvenbode: Whitlock looked really good in professionally clearing out Chris Quantock and has generally been in the best form he has for years in 2017. van Duijvenbode took out Kellett then was fairly comfortable in a 10-5 win over Kist. Whitlock should advance.
Raymond van Barneveld - Ron Meulenkamp: Barney didn't really kick into top gear but was able to get through a scrappy game against Barrie Bates, while Meulenkamp beat Royden Lam then both Lee and Ricky Evans. Meulenkamp's a 6/1 dog, and I have enough of a sample size on him to think that he won't even get there that much: 2u van Barneveld 1/6
Dave Chisnall - Peter Wright: The new favourite got what is one of the hardest draws he could get against Chizzy, but is a 2/1 favourite. This looks pretty close to correct looking at the stats and extrapolating the match, and I think that while Wright played like a god on Thursday, it's countered by the pressure of now being a favourite and also that Chisnall has a small head to head lead, so will leave it alone.
Alan Tabern - John Michael: Close to even money this one, Tabern came through Robertson, Carroll and King, while Michael beat Hudson and Dolan, both in deciding legs. I think Michael has the edge here in terms of limited stats I have on each of them, and he's probably been playing more frequently at a higher level, so I'll lean for 0.5u Michael 10/11
Gerwyn Price - Dave Pallett: Price came through Pipe fairly comfortably and is installed as a 2-1 favourite against Pallett, who saw off Andy Jenkins and then Beaton. The numbers I have on Pallett are actually really good, and Beaton isn't that much worse than Price is. Question is whether the price makes it worth the bet, I'll go for yes: 0.5u Pallett 7/4
Ronnie Baxter - Willie O'Connor: Baxter rolled back the years beating Rowley, North and Webster, while O'Connor beat Lennon and Todd convincingly, nearly hitting a nine in the process. Those scorelines tempt me towards him given he's only a tiny favourite, but I have such limited information on Baxter and he's already beaten a better player than O'Connor this weekend, so will leave it alone.
Mark Webster - Daryl Gurney: A World Championship rematch with Gurney being installed as a bit more than a 60% favourite - that match was only 4-3, and while Gurney beat Palmer and Roy, Webster beat Bunting then came from behind against Twell to edge it. Gurney's numbers however are solidly better, so I'll agree with the bookied and think he has a decent but not prohibitive edge.
Chris Dobey - Martin Lukeman: Dobey's much more experienced than Lukeman, who survived infinite match darts in round 3 to win 10-9, he should advance comfortably but not really knowing too much about Lukeman I don't want to punt when the best we can get has Dobey as greater than a 75% favourite.
Kim Huybrechts - Ted Evetts: Kim had issues with Woods, only getting through 10-8, while Evetts beat Milford and then Gilding with a convincing 10-5 scoreline. Huybrechts' stats are a lot better than Evetts over a much bigger sample, but we are getting a big price on Ted and I think he has played a big stage enough that he can nick this enough to be worth the shot: 0.25u Evetts 7/2
Ryan Searle - Rob Cross: I have no figures on either, Cross is a small favourite, while Searle is fairly local so may have some support. Cross has done a bit better on the tour this season and clearly likes the venue, but I don't know enough on Searle to punt.
Benito van de Pas - Alan Norris: Benito's only a small favourite, both had fairly easy passes through round 3 in comfortable matchups, I think this will be tight and Benito's overall better play may just outdo Norris having the better recent form.
Jelle Klaasen - Vincent van der Voort: Surprised that Vincent was able to advance that easily over Ronny Huybrechts, while Klaasen had a bit of a struggle with Jonny Clayton before getting through 10-7. I think Klaasen should be able to lock in to what is a great opportunity to go very deep, and the odds look OK given Vincent's poor form - 1u Klaasen 5/11
Joe Cullen - Cristo Reyes: Disappointed that this isn't on either televised board (think board 2 is streamed?), as this is an even game between developing players in form. Reyes got a bye while Cullen dismantled Thornton, should be close and the odds reflect that.
Kirk Shepherd - Ian White: Shepherd's been playing at a good level, but this is a bit of a step up, White easily dealt with Barham while Shepherd took out Barilli then Wayne Jones in a close battle. White's nearly 4/1 on which doesn't seem worth a bet, and I don't know if Kirk steps up enough to bet the dog.
Jermaine Wattimena - Michael Smith: Smith pulled away from Henderson after the game was even early, while Jermaine surprised a few by taking out Kyle Anderson. Smith seems in the best form over the last few weeks that he's been in for a while, but if Wattimena keeps this up he can probably snipe the win enough that the 25% chance the odds indicate seems correct.
Paul Hogan - Adrian Lewis: Lewis looked a bit sluggish in beating Wade but did enough to get through, while Hogan, in being a Riley's qualifier to beat Gary Anderson, caused the biggest story in the UK Open since a Riley's qualifier beat Gary Anderson. I think Lewis' numbers are better than his form suggests, Hogan is not completely dead obviously, but Lewis is a big favourite.
Simon Whitlock - Dirk van Duijvenbode: Whitlock looked really good in professionally clearing out Chris Quantock and has generally been in the best form he has for years in 2017. van Duijvenbode took out Kellett then was fairly comfortable in a 10-5 win over Kist. Whitlock should advance.
Raymond van Barneveld - Ron Meulenkamp: Barney didn't really kick into top gear but was able to get through a scrappy game against Barrie Bates, while Meulenkamp beat Royden Lam then both Lee and Ricky Evans. Meulenkamp's a 6/1 dog, and I have enough of a sample size on him to think that he won't even get there that much: 2u van Barneveld 1/6
Dave Chisnall - Peter Wright: The new favourite got what is one of the hardest draws he could get against Chizzy, but is a 2/1 favourite. This looks pretty close to correct looking at the stats and extrapolating the match, and I think that while Wright played like a god on Thursday, it's countered by the pressure of now being a favourite and also that Chisnall has a small head to head lead, so will leave it alone.
Friday, 3 March 2017
UK Open Round 3
Holy crap, MvG withdrew. Which opens up the tournament to the likes of Lewis, Wade... oops.
Finished up 6-10 on rounds 1/2, for a loss of 1.15 units. Nothing much to say, most of the losses were on the quarter unit plays which prevented a bigger downswing, very surprised that Lerchbacher didn't get through after his form at the weekend, and Jenkins going out and not looking close while doing so also seems like a shock. Nice for Reyes to get the day off, although I think we'd all have liked to see a rerun of his worlds match.
So on to round 3, oddschecker is offering hugely incomplete coverage, it's now up to a race to 10 so there's a bit less variance coming up, have opened up three bookies and grabbing the best line where possible:
William O'Connor - Mick Todd: Nothing, O'Connor seems slightly better so ignoring this
Darren Webster - Ronnie Baxter: 1u Webster 2/5, cannot see Baxter rolling back the years over this distance
Alan Norris - Yordi Meeuwisse: Best we can get is 1/4 Norris which seems too short
Peter Wright - James Richardson: Wright's double digits odds on which isn't worth it
Kim Huybrechts - Brian Woods: 1u Huybrechts 1/6, don't really believe in Woods and Huybrechts seems in form
Mervyn King - Alan Tabern: King should ease through but we're not offered the right price
Ross Twell - Mark Webster: Not sure Webster doesn't randomly choke rarely enough to get on at 2/9
Robert Thornton - Joe Cullen: 1u Cullen 10/11, in a pick em Cullen's stats are better. Thornton wasn't tested in round 2 and this is a big step up in class
Kyle Anderson - Jermaine Wattimena: 1u Anderson 1/2, Wattimena isn't that impressive and Anderson's been great the last six months
Jamie Caven - Dave Chisnall: Chizzy's rightly heavily odds on, no value here
Chris Dobey - Kevin Painter: 1u Dobey 8/13, Painter isn't that far off in a short format but this is long enough that Dobey's class will show
Chris Quantock - Simon Whitlock: Whitlock moves on but is too short
Alex Roy - Daryl Gurney: 1/5 Gurney's tempting but will leave it
Jonny Clayton - Jelle Klaasen: 0.25u Clayton 3/1, Klaasen wasn't great yesterday so this may be just about live
Martin Lukeman - Rob Hewson: Not enough time to think about players with limited information
John Michael - Brendan Dolan: Dolan rightly a favourite, it's close to a bet but Michael's too much of a wildcard when we can't even get 1/2
Gary Anderson - Paul Hogan: Intriguing match but Ando's too short and I don't think Hogan pulls the upset enough to punt
Matthew Dennant - Benito van de Pas: Best price on Benito is 1/8? Really?
Justin Pipe - Gerwyn Price: 1u Price 8/11, Pipe's not got good enough figures to be able to run Price close enough
Mick McGowan - Ryan Searle: Don't know enough on Searle to bet here. McGowan's steady but that's it, he's too big of a favourite to go with the known quantity
Vincent van de Voort - Ronny Huybrechts: 0.5u Huybrechts 7/4, form player is a good price
Dave Pallett - Steve Beaton: Beaton about a 65% favourite seems fine
Wayne Jones - Kirk Shepherd: Tempted by a Shepherd bet, but will avoid
Andrew Gilding - Ted Evetts: Evetts is really solid but it's priced as a flip which seems too much
Ron Meulenkamp - Ricky Evans: Lot of variance here and there's no big price either way, so will not bet
Adrian Lewis - James Wade: Bookies have Lewis a small favourite, if anything the value is on Wade but there's not enough of it
Christian Kist - Dirk van Duijvenbode: Kist seems rightly priced at about 8/15 or so, not rushing to bet on either at those odds
Ian White - Paul Barham: 1u White 1/6, should be far too solid
John Henderson - Michael Smith: Smith seems the form guy, but cocks it up too much to bet
Rob Cross - Johnny Haines: Can't even get 1/2 on Cross, he should win but you never know
Raymond van Barneveld - Barrie Bates: 2006 all over again, Barney too short
Finished up 6-10 on rounds 1/2, for a loss of 1.15 units. Nothing much to say, most of the losses were on the quarter unit plays which prevented a bigger downswing, very surprised that Lerchbacher didn't get through after his form at the weekend, and Jenkins going out and not looking close while doing so also seems like a shock. Nice for Reyes to get the day off, although I think we'd all have liked to see a rerun of his worlds match.
So on to round 3, oddschecker is offering hugely incomplete coverage, it's now up to a race to 10 so there's a bit less variance coming up, have opened up three bookies and grabbing the best line where possible:
William O'Connor - Mick Todd: Nothing, O'Connor seems slightly better so ignoring this
Darren Webster - Ronnie Baxter: 1u Webster 2/5, cannot see Baxter rolling back the years over this distance
Alan Norris - Yordi Meeuwisse: Best we can get is 1/4 Norris which seems too short
Peter Wright - James Richardson: Wright's double digits odds on which isn't worth it
Kim Huybrechts - Brian Woods: 1u Huybrechts 1/6, don't really believe in Woods and Huybrechts seems in form
Mervyn King - Alan Tabern: King should ease through but we're not offered the right price
Ross Twell - Mark Webster: Not sure Webster doesn't randomly choke rarely enough to get on at 2/9
Robert Thornton - Joe Cullen: 1u Cullen 10/11, in a pick em Cullen's stats are better. Thornton wasn't tested in round 2 and this is a big step up in class
Kyle Anderson - Jermaine Wattimena: 1u Anderson 1/2, Wattimena isn't that impressive and Anderson's been great the last six months
Jamie Caven - Dave Chisnall: Chizzy's rightly heavily odds on, no value here
Chris Dobey - Kevin Painter: 1u Dobey 8/13, Painter isn't that far off in a short format but this is long enough that Dobey's class will show
Chris Quantock - Simon Whitlock: Whitlock moves on but is too short
Alex Roy - Daryl Gurney: 1/5 Gurney's tempting but will leave it
Jonny Clayton - Jelle Klaasen: 0.25u Clayton 3/1, Klaasen wasn't great yesterday so this may be just about live
Martin Lukeman - Rob Hewson: Not enough time to think about players with limited information
John Michael - Brendan Dolan: Dolan rightly a favourite, it's close to a bet but Michael's too much of a wildcard when we can't even get 1/2
Gary Anderson - Paul Hogan: Intriguing match but Ando's too short and I don't think Hogan pulls the upset enough to punt
Matthew Dennant - Benito van de Pas: Best price on Benito is 1/8? Really?
Justin Pipe - Gerwyn Price: 1u Price 8/11, Pipe's not got good enough figures to be able to run Price close enough
Mick McGowan - Ryan Searle: Don't know enough on Searle to bet here. McGowan's steady but that's it, he's too big of a favourite to go with the known quantity
Vincent van de Voort - Ronny Huybrechts: 0.5u Huybrechts 7/4, form player is a good price
Dave Pallett - Steve Beaton: Beaton about a 65% favourite seems fine
Wayne Jones - Kirk Shepherd: Tempted by a Shepherd bet, but will avoid
Andrew Gilding - Ted Evetts: Evetts is really solid but it's priced as a flip which seems too much
Ron Meulenkamp - Ricky Evans: Lot of variance here and there's no big price either way, so will not bet
Adrian Lewis - James Wade: Bookies have Lewis a small favourite, if anything the value is on Wade but there's not enough of it
Christian Kist - Dirk van Duijvenbode: Kist seems rightly priced at about 8/15 or so, not rushing to bet on either at those odds
Ian White - Paul Barham: 1u White 1/6, should be far too solid
John Henderson - Michael Smith: Smith seems the form guy, but cocks it up too much to bet
Rob Cross - Johnny Haines: Can't even get 1/2 on Cross, he should win but you never know
Raymond van Barneveld - Barrie Bates: 2006 all over again, Barney too short
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