Sunday, 16 June 2019

ET8 last 16 - WE CAN REBUILD

So round 2 went about as badly as it could possibly go - 0-5 dropping two units, which coupled with Friday is probably making this about the worst tournament of all time and has dropped back around half our yearly profit. Yikes. I think dartistik on Twitter pegged Durrant and Cross as his biggest favourite on each day. That's not nice, if you had a Burness (who reverted to the mean pretty damn quickly yesterday) and Shepherd double, good luck to you.

Today we have:

Price/Bunting - Both players got through 6-4 yesterday, Price in a pretty decent game against Ryan Harrington, which might have been over quicker if Gerwyn hadn't allowed a break back at 4-1 up, missing doubles as Ryan cleared 237 in six darts. Bunting overcame Cody Harris, not much in this one, Bunting getting a 12 dart break on bull to lead 4-3 and holding from there, although Cody did have two darts to break at 5-4... Price is favourite, around 2-1 on, I think that's worth a small stab to try to get things back on track, 0.25u Price 1/2, I'm thinking it should have been nearer 4/11 and Gerwyn played a heck of a lot better than Stephen did yesterday.

Wright/Cullen - Wright added to the betting pain yesterday with a routine 6-2 win over Willie O'Connor, while Willie really didn't show up, six legs won in fifteen darts or yet is a very handy standard. Joe got a gift against Burness, winning 6-1 with Kevin averaging below 75, maybe there were a couple of Tuborgs after the Durrant win? Wouldn't like to say. Joe was decent on the outer ring but basically cruising otherwise. Wright's about the same price as Price, and I'm seeing about the same win chances, so 0.25u Wright 4/9.

Gurney/de Sousa - Daryl wasted little time getting into today, only dropping the one leg against Ryan Joyce in an impressive display via whatever stat you want to look at. de Sousa won an instant classing against Darren Webster 6-5, although he was 5-1 up (and threw two maximums in leg 7), needing Darren to miss bull for the match to get the extra darts he needed to clinch the game. Daryl's slightly shorter again than Wright, I think this is worth a nibble the other way, 0.25u de Sousa 12/5, he simply can't miss as many doubles as he did yesterday, but the scoring is absolutely there to generate the chances. Could do with Daryl dropping off a touch to help matters, but Jose's less than a point and a half off Daryl on seasonal points per turn, so ought to claim this well over one in three times. Heck, based on winning legs (which does undervalue Daryl as stated before), Jose projects as favourite. He's that good.

Shepherd/Dobey - Gone over the Kirk thing already, a second surprising win for Shepherd, who knew he could make a big run in an event? That's never happened before for him, surely? Dobey was taken all the way by Ricky Evans (told you it'd be close), missing a match dart at 5-4, and then being reliant on Evans to miss match darts of his own to break in the decider. Around the same price yet again, Dobey being installed as favourite - this time the value isn't there. Dobey's 2/5 and I've got him slightly better than that, but 1/3 would be a bad bet.

Wade/Clayton - James was in a little bit of bother against Dennis Nilsson, but put in what looked like a very Wade-like performance statistically, no maximums, but >50% on doubles and some nice mid range outs when needed. Clayton needed every leg and a bit of luck against home favourite Per Laursen, getting the break for 5-5 and then surviving a match dart in the final leg. It's yet another match at around the same odds, Wade being favoured, I think there's a bit of value on Clayton - 0.25u Clayton 2/1. I've stated Clayton's playing better than his results suggest (although he does have a win this year, let's not forget) - I'm seeing around 40% chance to claim this one.

Lewis/Whitlock - Adie got past Kyle Anderson in a tight one, he was 4-2 down before winning 6-4 thanks to Kyle missing multiple darts at double on his throw twice. Whitlock got a surprising win against Aspinall, coming from 4-3 down to win by the same score, Nathan having an annoying mix of either not scoring and hence not getting shots at doubles, or scoring enough to get shots at double, then missing. The two time world champ is favoured and the line looks solid - I see just over 60% for Lewis, he's 8/13, let's move on.

Suljovic/Chisnall - Mensur needed all 11 legs to beat Gabriel Clemens, while Chisnall ran off five straight to end the match against Ratajski 6-2, always just getting the leg won before Krzysztof could step in. The market can't separate these, I'm tempted to shoot on Chizzy at evens, he does have quite a bit better winning average than Mensur which is showing a 60% win chance, but the overall scoring is much tighter. Probably should bet but Suljovic does like Denmark.

White/Wattimena - Ian nearly got knocked out in a surprisingly tight game with Martin Schindler, needing to get out of a 5-3 hole but Schindler only had one match dart in those three legs. Jermaine won 6-4 over Michael Smith, storming into a 4-1 lead, Smith got it back to 5-4 and was throwing to level, but lost the ability to score when he needed it most and Jermaine didn't even need the backup of throwing in the decider. You've guessed it, another 2-1 sort of game, White naturally the favourite, I don't think there's a bet here, I'm seeing it somewhere in the sixties for White, there may even be tiny value on Jermaine but I think you'd need line movement from money coming in on White to really start thinking about it.

No comments:

Post a comment