Saturday 29 June 2019

Prague day 2

Quick round up of day 1, obviously Durrant will grab the headlines with that superb performance that just got above the average level where casual pundits go nuts, outside of that there's not a huge amount to write home about - a lot of the qualifiers either didn't do themselves justice or simply aren't at the level needed on the Euro Tour yet, a bit disappointing for the home fans I guess, but at least Karel Sedlacek got home in a nip and tuck game against Brendan Dolan, and we get the long awaited rematch against Ian White this afternoon.

Obviously, Keegan Brown now got into the Matchplay as it stands, still a couple of players that could usurp him - Steve West isn't one of them after losing a humdinger in the deciding leg against Mervyn King. He missed multiple match darts, so that put us break even on the day with Hughes getting home over Petersen as expected. Might be worth revisiting that King/West game if it finds its way onto Youtube, it doesn't have enormous averages with both in the low 90's, but it had a bit of everything - West storming into a 3-0 lead with a real powerful two legs then getting the best of a missed doubles fest, then King levels with a 135 out on the bull, a 10 darter (with a bounceout), then a 170 - West says I want some of that checkout action and breaks straight back with a 121 bull finish after King missed the same, West makes it 5-3 after King nearly gets a 122 out straight back at him, then King levels with West missing three match darts in leg 9, another in leg 10, then leg 11 is the sort of super nervous leg where neither can score, neither can hit a double, before King finally wins it in 21 darts. Entertainment value for sure.

Today we have:

Clayton/Wattimena - Jermaine had zero trouble with Kevin Garcia in a 6-0 breeze, Clayton is deemed to be a fairly even opponent in the market, he's the tiniest of favourites at 10/11. This seems fine, with me seeing it at 56% for Clayton I might have shaded it a bit more in the Ferret's direction, but it's close enough to correct to ignore the game. Ought to be tight, maybe the old see who wins the bull and bet 6-5 trick?

Webster/Noppert - Danny won the opening game against Stefan Bellmont comfortably enough, 6-2 being the result, and now faces Darren Webster - it's an important game for Darren, it's a big if, but if Adrian Lewis wins later he could steal the #15 seed for the Matchplay, and you really don't want to be the #16 seed. Market has Noppert at 4/6, this looks fine, I've maybe got Danny a percentage point or two higher, but no edge here.

Whitlock/Pipe - Justin got past Madars Razma 6-4, not an outstanding game but solid enough from both players, Pipe picking his game up from 3-3 to claim it. Whitlock's the next opponent, and as eluded to in the preview, Whitlock ought to be the underdog. He isn't, so while I've only got Pipe at 54%, it's enough given the price - 0.25u Pipe 11/8.

Aspinall/Gilding - Andrew put in a three leg run to close out his game against Rodriguez 6-3 after all legs prior were on throw, it was only a six visit break that he got, but it was enough. Nathan Aspinall's a much classier operator and comes in as I want to say a prohibitive favourite. It's a bit annoying that Gilding isn't playing much Pro Tour - I've got 119 legs on him, and while it's not a huge sample size it is saying to take the underdog punt. Statistically he's about the same level as Jan Dekker, and I doubt Jan would be near 3/1. Given he is leading the (conventional) Challenge Tour averages, I'll take a small stab - 0.1u Gilding 11/4.

Gurney/O'Connor - Willie won 6-0 against the fantastically named Vaclav Schieferdecker, and now faces Daryl Gurney in another must win game to hold on to slim Matchplay hopes. It got a lot harder with Keegan Brown winning, he now needs to make the semis, but at least he's not in an awful quarter and Gurney is the top seed in that quarter. The market's catching on to Willie's quality, but it's not catching up quickly enough - 0.25u O'Connor 7/4, on the numbers he's at least Gurney's equal. Chuck in the added motivation and it seems an even better bet.

White/Sedlacek - Karel got past Dolan as mentioned and now gets into a rematch with Ian White. It's 7/2, it's happened before, it could happen again I guess but I'm really not sure it happens more than the 25% of the time we'd need to go with it. Ought to be a fun game for the crowd at least, shame they couldn't get this one on late in the evening session, pesky draws.

Beaton/Meulenkamp - Ron has a quick turnaround after being third to last on yesterday, getting by Hlavacek 6-2, and now plays Steve Beaton, back in the seeds as he continues an ever present run. Steve's the favourite in the market, but not by much - at first glance I thought this was an overreaction to Ron's decent last fortnight or so, but no, the line looks alright and the numbers concur with Steve being a small favourite.

Wade/King - Mentioned the King game in detail earlier so won't repeat myself. James Wade is next, Wade's rightly favoured, it's close to being a bit too much of a favourite I think - King's 9/4, I'm seeing it around 65/35, nearly enough but with Wade looking really good last weekend and King, stunning three leg run aside, didn't look that convincing yesterday and kind of fell over the line, so I'm alright with leaving this alone.

Evans/Evetts - Ted pulled off a bit of an upset by taking care of Ratajski in some style, really good performance, but not as much of an upset as some people might make out, Ted's being slept on a bit and against Ricky Evans the market's having trouble picking them apart. Looks like the Clayton game - Evans is the tiniest of favourites, and I'm seeing the same. Next.

Cullen/Dobey - Chris didn't really need to get out of second gear to defeat Steyer, 6-2 being the result, and he now faces an indifferent Joe Cullen in round two. It's just like the last game - both myself and the market are seeing Dobey as the slight favourite, so no real value at all.

Wright/Bunting - Stephen beat Robert Thornton to reach this stage, it was 5-0 but Rob briefly threatened a comeback before Bunting closed it off 6-3 with a twelve darter, his best leg of the match. It's another Scottish opponent next in Peter Wright, the market sees it as a one in three shot for the Bullet, which looks good to me. I might have pushed Bunting to 11/5 rather than 2/1, but that's not a huge difference.

van Gerwen/Brown - Keegan got the huge win he needed for Matchplay purposes - can he get another win over van Gerwen to give himself the chance of getting past James Wilson and being absolutely sure? We're getting 6/1, that's way more than enough - 0.1u Brown 6/1, van Gerwen's obviously a favourite but I'm only getting him just over 70% to claim it. If the pressure's now somewhat off Brown and he can play naturally to his best, who's to say he can't do it again?

Suljovic/Henderson - Big John got past Borland 6-3, all round good performance, Mensur's the next opponent and the market's seeing it as similar to the Wright game, Suljovic favoured to claim this about two times out of three. That's a bit disrespectful to John - 0.25u Henderson 15/8, I've got this as very close to 40% for Hendo so at that price I think it's worth a stab.

Price/Durrant - Mentioned Glen's game earlier, stand out performance of round one, but against Price he'll quite possibly need to do the same again, or close to it. Market has this really close, Price is 4/5, I think there's a bit of value in there, 0.25u Price 4/5, I'm seeing 61% so I reckon we can go with it.

Lewis/Hughes - Jamie got past Devon Petersen, one of those annoying games where Devon plays horribly (18 scoring visits of 60 or below in 10 legs, but he's in form, honest) but wins four legs somehow. It wasn't six though, so we've got another game against Adie, as mentioned in the Webster section it's an important game for Adie to try to get past Webster and out of an early van Gerwen draw in Blackpool. Yet another tight game, but I disagree with the market, 0.25u Hughes 6/5, Jamie's simply that much better, the projections I have seeing this at nearly 65%.

Smith/Cadby - Explosive game to finish after Corey easily dealt with Nijman in the opening round. Market has Smith at 4/6, that looks spot on to within a twentieth of one percent. No further bets.

So five decent plays, the Hughes and O'Connor bets looking especially good value, and a couple of small stabs on significant dogs in the market. Let's see what happens.

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