Sunday 30 June 2019

ET9 last 16 bets

As you may have noticed, I posted up the projections in the previous post, so let's quickly blast through the games:

Brown/Noppert - no bet, Noppie's 5/6, looks an extremely accurate line
Suljovic/Evetts - no bet, it's quite close to a bet on Evetts but we've not even got 7/4, we need better than that
Bunting/Dobey - no bet, Dobey's the slight favourite, I think he's the slight favourite, nothing here
Gurney/Wattimena - 0.25u Wattimena 8/5, think this is worth a poke, Jermaine looked pretty good on Friday, yesterday was a bit more of a grind but he probably played a little bit better than Gurney did, projections don't take into account consistency but did give Jermaine the tiniest of edges, 8/5 doesn't look too bad
White/Gilding - 0.1u Gilding 3/1, it's worked once and I'm thinking it could work again, a bit of luck like he got yesterday would always be useful, but we were seeing slightly more than 1 in 3 wins for Andrew just based on pure numbers - even if we say that it's a bit optimistic based on lack of main tour data on Gilding then I'm not sure we can justify moving it enough to make this a bad bet
Hughes/Meulenkamp - no bet, the market's not quite caught up to Hughes' quality yet at 4/7, but as I think it should only be slightly shorter than 1/2 there's not a great deal of edge
King/Cadby - half tempted by 7/5 on King, I think it should be slightly shorter than that, especially if you factor in King having hit some nice heights this weekend, but I do wonder whether the conditions will play a factor here
Price/Whitlock - 0.5u Price 4/9, Whitlock shouldn't have been here but at least played alright, which is the only reason why I'm tempering the bet to just half a unit - season long Price is over 80% and had the best six leg run of anyone this weekend yesterday and is surely justifying his price as tournament favourite right now (although a portion of that is surely having Whitlock as a last sixteen opponent)

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