Thursday, 7 November 2019

Oddschecker works in international waters at least

Didn't get time to put together the chances matrix I wanted to last night, just ran out of time, so I'll look at game one of the group stages and see what I think while on a boat somewhere in the Irish Sea, hopefully heading in the direction of Dublin:

Aspinall/Schindler - nothing here. It's priced as Nathan having a two in three shot, which feels about right, as mentioned in the preview, Martin is very good this year, he may even outperform this line.

Noppert/Harrington - 0.25u Noppert 8/15, now this one feels a bit more one sided, Danny has been undervalued all year and I'm simply not convinced Harrington can win this one in three. As a bonus, Danny did make a TV final last weekend so the stage game has to be there

Dolan/Clemens - no bet. It's more or less a flip, Clemens being slightly favoured against the Irishman, 11/10 seems a tempter but this appears close however you look at it.

Chisnall/Hughes - no bet, market has it slightly more than 60/40 in Chizzy's favour, earlier on in the year this'd be bet Jamie and print, but of late it appears to be somewhat more accurate.

Gurney/Veenstra - no bet, was hoping this would be a bit more of a one sided line, but we can't even get 5/2 on Richard.

Wright/Warren - no bet, it's a shame that we didn't have more data on Wayne, as 7/2 is a big number in a race to five, but it's hard to extrapolate and go against someone who's both clearly better and has been hitting peaks of late.

Cross/Ashton - 12/1 lol

Smith/Durrant - nothing on this one, market can't split the pair which appears ok

Webster/O'Connor - same line as above, don't want to even think about punting on either given their respective form with neither being odds against.

Price/Suzuki - 12/1 lol

White/Lennon - half tempted to stab at Lennon here given a 2/1 line and White's indifferent TV form, but surely Ian can pull through here. If Steve had a few better results of any kind I would probably shoot

Anderson/Parletti - 0.1u Parletti 23/10, this is just on the chance that Gary seriously isn't right and plays like he did last weekend

Wade/Harms - 0.25u Wade 1/2, I've not seen enough play out of Harms that makes me think he can take down someone with Wade's solidity more than one in three.

van Gerwen/Williams - there's plenty of people I'd take at 5/1 in a race this short against MvG but Jim ain't one of them.

Lewis/Smith - sign of the times that Smith is shorter than 5/4, this feels like a close tie and is priced accordingly

van den Bergh/Thornton - 0.25u van den Bergh 4/7, I really don't think that Robert has shown the form this year to take down the maturing Belgian often enough that this is bad.

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