Saturday, 23 November 2019

This weekend just keeps getting better

An 0/13 streak isn't really what I was looking for in the run up to the worlds, today we had de Sousa put in a near 103 average but run into Bunting playing the best game he's played since at least his first year in the PDC, if not his BDO days, Evans just completely forgot how to score he got the break in the first leg but that was it, Noppert was looking like the same against Suljovic but clawed it back to 5-5, then missed bull for the match and Suljovic finished 84 with an unorthodox D3 finish, before Dolan got entailed in an incredibly ordinary game against Smith, he fought back a bit before going down 6-4.

It's worth looking at the long run in these spots - the years I list in the sidebar (I don't know if they're visible on mobile layouts) run from Ally Pally through to the Players Championship, and if we stopped right now we'd still be making over 3% in 2019 - it's not the 6% we were at before this event, but it's important to put into perspective that if you put the volume in the correct spots, you can sustain what's without doubt a fucking awful event so far.

Nice to see dartsdata failing yet again, if anyone can explain how they're reporting that Adrian Lewis got a nine darter in leg three finishing on double three, you're a better man than me - at least van Gerwen got one for real later on in the match to end what was a pretty big TV drought.

Last 16 starts soon, and we have in draw order Price/Suljovic, Bunting/Meikle, Durrant/van Barneveld, Dobey/Henderson, Wade/van Gerwen, King/Cross, White/Smith and O'Connor/Clemens. We're still waiting for a line for the Smith game, but we know they've met a few times recently and it was generally correct, we're also waiting for the King/Cross line, but for now, is there anything we like? I think Suljovic is very close, 15/8 is out there and I think he's got a little bit more of a chance than that, but it's so hard to punt against Price these days and it's not a big edge. 0.1u Meikle 12/5 looks obvious, Bunting does seem overrated and season long Meikle has 40% easily, the concerns are that Bunting has infinitely more experience than Ryan over a game of this length, so we'll just go a tenth of a unit. That he played incredibly well earlier is also a bit of a worry. I won't go for Wade simply because his form of late doesn't make it a sensible punt, I'll take a bit of 0.25u Clemens 4/6 as he's about that season long, but is a fair bit better than O'Connor over more recent samples. Dobey being a small favourite over Henderson seems accurate enough, and Glen against Barney seems about correct as well that's at a similar line (in Glen's favour). I've literally just seen the last couple of lines come up, White's where I thought it would be, and Cross is coming in around 70/30 which seems fine to me.

So just the couple to add on, hopefully we claw something back.

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