Thursday, 21 November 2019

PC Finals round 1 bets

You'd probably have got a good read of what we're looking at from the previous post, but here's what we're going with in match order:

0.25u van den Bergh 4/5 vs Bunting, this seems a bit too close to me, I'm struggling to see a sample where Dimitri shouldn't at least be 4/6. Small value, but enough to go with.

0.25u Pipe evs vs King, season long it's pretty tight and there looks no value either way, but over the last few months Justin's appeared much the superior player and rates to win this one at a decent clip.

0.25u Joyce evs vs Henderson, this is all about trending, after Hendo's magic cameo in the Premier League he's not really done much of anything, while Joyce has been trending upwards and regaining much of the form we saw in 2018.

0.25u Klaasen 6/5 vs Hopp, Jelle's been one of a few Dutch players who've had a bit of a resurgence in recent times, year long the line looks fair but as he's got better in 2019 and Hopp's stagnated a little, I'm rating Jelle as no worse than 50/50, so we'll take the odds against.

0.1u Schindler 5/2 vs Smith, absent from oddschecker for reasons unknown? I've talked a fair bit about Martin in recent times, he's been playing well but just not had the rub of the green, he only lost by a deciding leg against Smith in the Slam so 5/2 looks worth the small stab.

0.25u Anderson 13/10 vs Cullen, at some point Kyle's got to start getting the results that his scoring has predicated, he's outscored Joe for the year so we'll take odds against.

0.25u Evetts 9/5 vs Wade, I'd have liked a little bit more odds and they're kind of correctly showing that Ted's dominated the Dev Tour and got good results at senior level, but I don't think they've quite corrected enough. If he can hang with Price as he did in the Euros he can certainly trouble Wade.

0.25u West evs vs O'Connor, over the course of the year this looks about a break even bet, but O'Connor hasn't really impressed since he got his title whereas West's been looking to get back to the kind of game he had when he was in the best player without a title conversation.

0.1u Meulenkamp 12/5 vs Cross, it's a punt, sure, but Ron's had his moments and is one of those players where if it clicks he's unplayable. Needing only three in ten to break even isn't a ridiculous ask.

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