Saturday 23 November 2019

Worst. Tipping. Ever.

Jesus christ, yesterday was not pretty in the slightest. Surprises everywhere, not only did we lose every single bet, but there's odd stuff all over the shop - who could have seen Meikle bagelling Clayton? Whitlock finding a way to win from 3-0 down? Luke Woodhouse locating his early season form to dodge bullets and dump out the defending champion? James Wilson taking down Peter Wright? I think the only thing that wasn't a surprise is dartsdata fucking up for the 8467th time this season:

Of course that had to show up on the last match I looked at after I thought everything had worked as intended.

In any case, given the level of fail yesterday I think we need to look back at what we picked and see if there's anything that we could have done differently:

van den Bergh - Just didn't show up, that's within the expected range of outcomes, but missed doubles - could easily have been up 4-2 rather than down 5-1
Pipe - Had the game up 4-3, then missed darts at double
Joyce - Had the game up 4-2, missed match darts
Klaasen - Game was there to win, just didn't show up and was maybe trying a bit too hard, just couldn't kick on after the 170 out, similarly missed a bunch of doubles
Schindler - Long shot that didn't show up until he was down 3-0, made a big mess of leg four, grab that one and pin any of the huge number of misses in leg six then who knows?
Anderson - Cullen played well, I'll give him that, but if Kyle pinned any of the three darts he had at double in leg one he could have been 3-0 up. Why's he even going bull route on 87 with Cullen on 143 anyway? If Joe pins it, fair enough, but he's cost himself possibly two darts at a big double, at least one for sure, through "opponent on outshot... huge longshot... must attempt outshot anyway..."
Evetts - Did fine. Had the break as late as leg 7, then scoring went away to really put the pressure on, missed doubles to break in leg 9 and then it was done. It'll come for Ted, he's too talented not to get one of these sooner rather than later
West - Didn't do anything wrong really, held his throw apart from when Willie put in a twelve darter with West waiting on 68 to break, suppose the only thing you can really criticise is not scoring better in the final leg when he could have broken back, but he's scored just fine everywhere else
Meulenkamp - Maybe in retrospect I don't like this one, but it was a small flier reliant on Ron turning up, and we got the complete opposite.

Packed round two today, with round three to follow in the evening, let's not go too crazy trying to chase losses, but let's look at what we have this afternoon:

Price/Brown - close to a Brown punt, near 4/1 isn't an awful price, but Gerwyn looks to be just about good enough, especially recently, that I'm not sure if Keegan covers enough to create clear value. Brown wasn't anything special against Boulton that might have tipped the balance.

Whitlock/Henderson - can't see anything that's real value here. Hendo's the underdog but only at 11/10, and throughout the year I'm finding it incredibly difficult to split the two.

Wade/Evans - 0.25u Evans 13/8, this looks about break even when you consider the whole year, but take away the earlier months when Wade looked so good (and when I took him for the worlds at half the price he is now), then it's a much closer affair that could easily be in the 5/4 region. Ricky's come through a scrappy game and is doing a fair bit better on the stage than he has done previously so let's stab at it.

Meikle/Labanauskas - wow, big opportunity for either of these. This is similar to the Whitlock game, they have Meikle as the tiny underdog, I agree in that this is too close to call, Ryan might have the smallest of small edges but it's not enough to push.

de Sousa/Bunting - 0.25u de Sousa 4/5, oh wow, they're still not adapting to just how good Jose is. Season long this ought to be 4/6, take out the first few months when Jose was still getting to grips with the tour and it ought to be nearer 1/2. Almost tempted to go half a unit, this looks very good.

Suljovic/Noppert - 0.25u Noppert 6/4, Danny looked alright yesterday and was able to grind out a win, Mensur did somewhat the same, season long this appears a bit closer than that line, picking out Noppert as a bet isn't a surprise at this stage.

White/van der Voort - nothing here, White's the better player but Vincent's been solid enough all year that him nicking it around the one in three that the market suggests appears reasonable enough.

Woodhouse/Clemens - no bet, if (and only if) you think that Luke has instantly returned to the level of play he was showing at the start of the year then I don't hate taking the near 2/1 that's out there, but Clemens is really good and frankly isn't that much of an easier task than Gurney was.

Lewis/van Gerwen - no, we've seen this one already in the Slam at a similar line and I'm not inclined to push our luck again.

Ratajski/O'Connor - this is really close to a stab on Ratajski, but there's enough spells where Willie has done well enough that 4/7 isn't overly appealing, and he appeared solid enough yesterday so I think I can avoid this one.

Durrant/Hopp - no bet once again here, every stat I have is saying this is round about a Glen takes it two times out of three game, which is where the line is at, so an easy leave.

Wilson/Dobey - incredibly tempting to take James in this one if you can get the 6/4 that's available on one or two books, year long Dobey's at around 60% but over shorter periods James becomes a somewhat viable play, the counterargument is that Chris looked really good yesterday, and how much did yesterday's win take out of Wilson?

Chisnall/King - seems close to a Mervyn play, 15/8 isn't too bad a price when I'm seeing him in or around 40% for most time periods, usually slightly below, the main concern is that there were mentions when they cut to board 2 on the broadcast that there might have been a recurrence of the back issues he's had, so against someone as hot as Chisnall is now I can leave this alone.

van Barneveld/Cullen - nothing here, they seem fairly evenly matched over large samples, over more recent months Barney looks a bit better but that's going to come from a very small Raymond sample.

Hughes/Cross - no bet, I'd have thought with Hughes' form since the Matchplay they might have given us a bit better than 13/8 against Cross of all people, but while Hughes is generally around 40% to win over any time period you want, they're not offering the line I thought they would.

Smith/Dolan - 0.25u Dolan 21/10, Brendan's really good and easily dismissed a tough first round opponent in Ross Smith, he's up at 40% all year so better than 2/1? Yes please.

Back later with last 16 picks.

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