Wednesday 23 November 2022

PC Finals picks

Alright then, we've got 32 games in the opening stanza, which is being compressed a bit because football with a pretty early start as a result, so needing to get this out in decent time. Let's go through in draw order and see what value we can pick out.

(1) Heta v (64) Pietreczko - Great job by Ricardo to sneak into the field having picked up his form substantially the second half of the year, but this is a pretty brutal draw against one of the top players in the world right now - at least on the floor, TV still a bit to be desired. Looks about five in six wins for Heta, he's priced ever so slightly closer, with TV form and Ricardo getting better, that's understandable.

(32) Rydz v (33) Razma - Should be the tightest if seedings are true, Callan's been a touch out of form of late and hasn't really shown his best on TV, while Madars continues to tick up nicely, so might be favoured here. Stats actually favour Callan two to one, so 8/13 is maybe worth a look when I thought that sort of line would be not of interest.

(16) Gilding v (49) Evans - Andrew's been a little bit off the boil in the last 2-3 months, while Evans is basically living off of an early Pro Tour final and not much else. Seems a bit more than 2-1 in favour of Andrew, he's 4/7 so it's kind of like the Rydz game above, maybe actually better statistically by nearly enough to punt, but with form, do we want to?

(17) Lewis v (48) Barry - Adie got a win back in July which was good enough to get him back into major contentions, but hasn't really done a great deal beyond that, while Keane's kind of been overtook in the "hot new Irish name" charts by some distance, but doing enough to safely get into the field and is still scoring over 90 for the year, which isn't bad. Adie by a touch more than 60% for me, he's 4/6, no interest there.

(8) Price v (57) Joyce - This is kind of a tough section for Price, which was made easier with Wright's withdrawal from the opposite #9 seed, and he'll start out against Joyce who's one of the top players currently not in the worlds having only just scraped into this field. Ryan seems live enough at a little bit more than 30%, so 100/30 is very close to being worth a flyer of a punt - but with a lack of results, does he ever realise that equity?

(25) Dolan v (40) Wattimena - Talked about Jermaine a fair bit this month, very much in the ascendancy against Brendan, who's one of a few that got a bink but outside of that has been moderately quiet. Looks like Dolan's got a bit more than a 60% chance season long, maybe closer to 65%, and we can get good odds of 4/5 - I think that despite Jermaine's recent form it's worth the shot on Hills, 0.25u Dolan 4/5

(65) van Veen v (56) Smith - Newest (wait, second) major winner Smith would have played Wright here, having had a fairly weak Pro Tour season, relying on the Euro Tour mostly to get into the majors he did, he'll play van Veen who made the most of Challenge Tour promotions to get in with a huge final run late in the season. He's doing enough that he'll be projected to grab this well more than one in three, getting up near 40% - as such, 0.1u van Veen 4/1 looks amazing value.

(24) Clayton v (41) O'Shea - Jonny's done probably about as well as he can without making a final, making the top half of the seeds, while John did make a final, and isn't in the top half of the seeds. Looks real comfortable for the multiple major winner, 75-80% seems right, 2/11 is not overly ridiculous.

(4) van Duijvenbode v (61) Mansell - Dirk's one of the elite players in the world now, two titles from four finals giving him a top four seeding and a comfortable opener against Mickey, who's hit the occasional decent run but mainly been quiet. Should be comfortable for Dirk, Mansell's doing enough to get somewhere between 25% and 30%, so might be a spot of minor value at 4/1 on the Cyclone.

(29) Gurney v (36) Brown - Daryl's had a quiet year, just been plodding along with decent enough scoring, whereas Keegan has been a little bit lower in the scoring but did get an August bink from nowhere which has likely saved his card. Keegan's playing well enough that he's live, with a high 30% chance of winning, so Gurney at 8/15 is too short, while the 15/8 on Coralbrokes is in range for people who think Keegan might be able to recreate that one off run. I'm not so sure.

(13) Searle v (52) King - Ryan is up in the top 16 seeds despite moderate form for his ranking, doing most of his work early with an opening final then a back to back bink-final run. Mervyn's fallen off enough that he's stopped making majors, and looks a fair bit outclassed here, not even having a 30% shot against Searle in the opening round. 1/2 on Searle looks very close to a bet.

(20) Bunting v (45) Hughes - Two players with quiet years, Stephen has been competent enough, while Jamie is looking to get back to the levels he was at when he first joined the PDC, but would be happy climbing back towards the top 32 as a starting point. Appears close on paper, Bunting shading it a little more than 55/45, so if you're looking for action at all costs, Hughes looks to be slightly undervalued at 11/8, but it's not by enough to go with it as a recommended play.

(5) Cross v (60) Doets - Rob got two of the last seven events to come into this on a high with a top five seeding and continues to be one of the most underrated players on the circuit, he'll come up against Kevin, who's just got into the field for a second year, albeit for the second straight year he's not in the worlds as it stands. Ought to be routine enough for Rob, but Doets is doing enough to maybe nick it 30% of the time. 7/2 is not quite there.

(28) Clemens v (37) Anderson - Tricky draw for both this, Gabriel made a final this year but got annihilated and is scoring a fair bit under where he has been in previous years, while Anderson hasn't played much at all, with barely more than half the legs Clemens has played, but has done a lot more in them and should be strongly favoured. 1/2 might not be short enough, this is very similar to the Searle match in terms of how much edge there is there, I'm getting 72%. Gary's got a lot of fans who should be rewarded if they take him in this one.

(12) Schindler v (53) van der Voort - Martin's still looking for a first tour title, he has at least made a final though but couldn't get over the line, while Vincent's still hanging around the better end of the tour without a huge amount in terms of results, hence the seeding. Should win this a touch more than one in three, so the correct side to take should be Martin at 4/6, but he's not winning it quite enough to recommend a play.

(21) Dobey v (44) Nentjes - Chris has been hitting things pretty decently in majors, but didn't make a final this year so getting close to the top 20 is a decent enough place in context. He'll play Geert, a top five Development Tour player who is continuing to improve and could be one to make a deep floor run at any stage. He might have a bit of a chance in this one, more than one in three, not 40%, is 11/4 worth the punt? I think so, 0.1u Nentjes 11/4, a 10% differential is substantial.

(2) Humphries v (63) Rafferty - Luke has been most notable for the Euro Tour run, but before that he did nick his first title in the opening event and added two more finals along with enough deep runs to get the number two seed. Nathan is doing just fine but looks a little bit outclassed in this one, as Humphries should grab this 75% of the time. 1/5 is too short, but only slightly better than 4/1 on Rafferty is the kind of edge you can start thinking about, but I don't like the matchup that much.

(31) Williams v (34) de Decker - Jim was an early new winner at Pro Tour level, but didn't kick on hugely - although with a good consistency score, he's playing better than his results suggest. Mike's only two tenths below Jim on overall scoring, but with much wilder inconsistency which means the projection says he'll take it 60%. That might be a bit much, but we can get odds against, so I'll go with a small flier, 0.1u de Decker 11/10, if consistency wasn't an issue, I'd go a quarter unit, but it is, so I won't.

(15) Ratajski v (50) O'Connor - Krzysztof is still scoring at a top sixteen level, and is doing enough consistently to get a top quarter seeding, this despite just the one final this year. Willie's been showing some flashes here and there, this season being a microcosm of his whole career, and what he has shown is more than enough to think he's an extremely live dog, 40% win odds not seeming unreasonable. He's actually shorter than that at 5/4, so we won't be punting there.

(18) de Sousa v (47) Jansen - Jose's sliding down the rankings, obviously more dramatically in the real rankings than the FRH ones, but still comes in as a top 20 seed despite no finals, and will come up against one of the bigger fluke winners in recent times in Danny Jansen, who binked back on April Fool's Day and nobody is quite sure why. Ought to be easy for de Sousa here, grabbing more than three in four wins looking like where the edge is at. He's much shorter than that in the market at 2/11, better than 4/1 on Danny is theoretically value but I can't see that he'd actually get the dub in this game.

(7) Chisnall v (58) Zonneveld - Dave is playing extremely well and peaking at the right time of the year, coming in as a top eight seed following his denial of Rock's first win, only about half a point off of top ten scoring for the year. On the other hand, Niels is just in the field as one of the last few players there, scoring below 90 and looking like a 70/30 dog. Another one where the Dutchman is maybe underrated, but not enough, especially given Dave's ascendant form. 3/1? No chance I'm touching that.

(26) Williams v (39) Soutar - Scott's got a tour card locked up as a result of having binked in June despite not having a card right now, getting the twelve grand for that and adding enough to comfortably finish inside the top half of the seeds. Alan is another player like Chisnall above that is improving of late, with a confidence boosting Grand Slam run and some good floor performances to secure a worlds spot which wasn't guaranteed at all a couple of months ago. Seems like the tightest one so far, season long Scott is edging it 53/47, but with recent form I'm happy enough to call this a pure flip. As is the market, with neither player better than evens.

(10) Cullen v (55) Rodriguez - Joe continues to outperform his stats, and enters as the #10 seed mainly due to back to back binks really on in the season. Rowby has been in some majors this year, but primarily through European Tour exploits, behind closed doors it's been a case of just about getting enough to get in. Joe ought to grab this, a bit more than 60%, he's favoured a little bit more than that with 2/1 being available on Rowby in this one, which is less of an edge than some others we've turned down. Given that the projections often undercook Joe's chances, this is an easy game to avoid.

(23) Huybrechts v (42) van Barneveld - This was probably a decent match in the Premier League a decade ago, although maybe to avoid relegation. Kim's done a bit more on the floor, but neither have done a huge amount, although Raymond obviously showed that he still has enough of a game to reach a TV semi final - which might see him sneak back into the worlds as a seed. The veteran world champ looks to be the favourite, but Kim's up over 40%. 8/13 on Barney seems in the right ballpark.

(3) Aspinall v (62) Kleermaker - Nathan made another major final just last weekend but looked to have run completely out of steam, he shouldn't need to recharge that much to have the edge over Martijn, who's been pretty anonymous all year, only just got into this late and was one of the last three players into the worlds, ending up with only a one in four spot against the Stockport ace. Hype train is a little bit more, you can't get better than 2/9 on Aspinall, 4/1 isn't an inspiring punt season long, and on shorter samples is probably completely fair.

(30) Campbell v (35) Beaton - Two tour finalists meet here in a close game seedings wise, Matt losing out 8-6 to Aspinall back in April (rematch perhaps?), while Steve lost out by the same score to Wade, the final day win being more than enough to claim another worlds appearance and boost his seeding hugely here. Steve's still doing OK but isn't the player he used to be, and Matt looks a good favourite here. 4/5 seems a little bit generous, with 61% chances I'd maybe make it shorter. It's near to a play, but I think the Canadian played his better stuff earlier in the year with Steve more recently, so the line's probably about right.

(14) Noppert v (51) Whitlock - This is a good one with the UK Open champion facing one half of the World Cup champions. Can't ask for a massive amount more from an opening game, Danny's consistent high level play sees him favoured in this matchup, but Simon, despite his advancing years, is still up there and close to having 40% chances in this one despite a huge seeding differential. As Noppert is 4/6, we will ignore this from a betting perspective.

(19) Wade v (46) Suljovic - Wade took until the last day to get a win, but did so to race up the seedings right at the death. Mensur's just been tailing off of late, sliding down the rankings but still scoring above 90, and did qualify for the Slam while Wade didn't. Appears close, call it 55/45 in favour of the multiple major winner. As such, the 6/4 on Suljovic appears to be where you would want to put your money if you must have a bet on this one. I don't, but that's my take.

(6) Smith v (59) Edhouse - Michael finally claimed his first major, and did so with a group stage win over his opponent here. That was comprehensive with Ritchie just getting the one leg from 4-0 down, we mentioned in the Slam that we think Ritchie's not a bad player, but this is kind of a brutal matchup, and while a typically available 7/2 is maybe a little bit disrespectful, there's got to be a complete differential in confidence so we can ignore this one.

(27) van den Bergh v (38) Lukeman - Dimitri has just the one final this year where he was comprehensively outplayed by Cullen, and has looked quiet in general results wise, despite his scoring still being very respectable at spot on 93. Lukeman's been grinding out results and performing a fair bit better than his scoring level, although his final was on the Euro Tour so counts for little here. Three points per turn is significant enough to say Dimi will take it more than 60% of the time, Lukeman could therefore be a bit shorter than the 2/1, but not quite at the level where we can consider yet another turn up for the books.

(11) Rock v (54) Menzies - Josh has been incredible. Cameron, not so much, and is massively outclassed in this one, barely rating to win one in four. You can get slightly longer on Menzies, but we're not interested.

(22) van Gerwen v (43) Meikle - The final game is a spicy one, van Gerwen's been the best player in the world this year, while Ryan continues to fly under the radar with the potential to hit a very high level if he's on form. Maybe he does it one time in four as I'm looking at it. That seems the correct ratio. Do we want to take 7/1? I wouldn't disagree if you chose to do so, but I kind of feel as if Ryan's breakout game would be against someone of not quite so high a stature.

That's it - four plays, seems like the MO is to take the Dutch as underdogs. That normally works alright.

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