Saturday 26 November 2022

PC Finals round 2

Not a great day from our point of view with only de Decker getting home and nobody else truly threatening the scorers, was a bit of a mad day with so many big names tumbling out, tournament goes one of two ways at roughly the same frequency as far as I can see - either we get a bonkers final, or van Gerwen wins it all again. We'll see. Going to turbo round two projections, then make a second post with conditional probabilities for round three as I'm going to be out in between the last 32 and last 16.

Gilding/Barry - Seems like Andrew 65/35. Close to a play but with his best form earlier in the season we won't stretch our betting tolerance in this one.

Menzies/van Gerwen - 75/25 van Gerwen. Cameron played well, can get better than 4/1 which is close, but does he ever do that sort of performance back to back? Probably not.

Noppert/Wade - Just over 60/40 for Danny. He's 8/13. Looks like a perfect line.

Chisnall/Williams - Chizzy just over two in three. Not quite 70%. 1/2 is near enough correct.

van Duijvenbode/Gurney - About the same as above with Dirk being favoured. He's ever so slightly shorter than Dave above, so line is even more correct.

Cullen/Huybrechts - Joe by a little bit more than 60%. We can get 2/1 on Huybrechts, which is close, but experience has taught us to be a bit more careful when laying Cullen, so like with the Gilding game, we won't stretch to go for the punt.

Ratajski/de Sousa - Very close to a flip, Jose maybe slightly favoured, maybe push it out to 55/45 given a small uptick in form in the second half of the year. With Ratajski at 6/5 it's very close to a correct line.

Humphries/de Decker - Mike seems very live, over 40%. 12/5 looks extremely tempting. He does have a huge consistency issue, one of the highest among tour card holders, while Luke's around the middle of the pack. I should probably take this, but maybe with the field opening up, Luke's more keyed in than usual?

Kleermaker/Campbell - Matt favoured around 2/1. Maybe slightly more. 8/13 is very, very close, although Martijn has just hit by far his biggest win of the season so maybe he freerolls and outperforms with added confidence enough that it's not value?

Schindler/Dobey - Pure flip. Market has Dobey ever so slightly favoured, it's the other way around for me but it's not even 51% so leave this one alone. Maybe take whoever wins the bull 6-5 for shits and giggles.

Pietreczko/Rydz - 70/30 Callan. Seems counter intuitive. Line is 1/2 in his favour though, wouldn't be touching that seeing how Ricardo is playing a lot better now than he was six months ago, and Rydz maybe not so much. Wouldn't be surprised if Ricardo pulls another one out.

Cross/Anderson - Seems extremely close, maybe Gary has the slightly better stats. 6/5 might be worth a look, it's a bit odd that given how much the market seems to hate Cross that they have him at 4/6. A no-vig line would probably be worth the play.

Smith/Clayton - Jonny seems favoured somewhere in the middle of 55% and 60% and is coming off a whitewash, nice after a fairly middling season. 8/11 as such seems right, the Smith hype train has been normalised.

Joyce/Wattimena - This should be a fun one, Joyce is favoured fairly heavily at about 65% in the data model, but is only just edging it in the market. Jermaine is recognised to be playing a lot better of late though. Crack the data down to October onwards and it's more 55/45, although how much sample size there is, particularly for Joyce, I don't know. I will avoid this and regret it probably.

Searle/Hughes - 60/40 for Ryan. Looked like a good game on board 2 yesterday. Jamie also got the job done nicely against a tough opponent. And he's 6/4. So no.

Edhouse/van den Bergh - Dimi's favoured, split the difference between 60% and 65%. We like Edhouse here and he showed what we know he can do yesterday. 5/2 is kind of recognising it, it's enough that we can talk ourselves out of a play, but if you think he can go back to back, then we won't stop you.

Be back shortly with round three conditional lines, but there's no official tips today.

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