Wednesday 16 November 2022

Slam last 16

Bit of a surprise to see Wright drop out, other than that it was pretty much as you were. Last 16 tips, gogogo:

Noppert/Price - Gerwyn rode his luck a little bit, but hit a great leg when it mattered. Noppert didn't have a great deal of trouble in his group, but still enters as around a 2/1 dog. That's maybe slightly harsh, but only by maybe 3% so not the sort of underdog value we need to consider a bet.

van Duijvenbode/Cullen - Good clash between two players pushing for the top ten and a match where Dirk's mildly favoured. Didn't win any large, but looked very solid, Joe looked OK but a bit worse. Dirk should be about a two in three favourite, 8/13 is not quite the edge we need.

Smith/Cross - Michael has got better match on match as he won the group, Rob had a good first game then lost to DvD and got out of jail vs Schindler. Smith is favoured a little bit more in the market than he should be, I'd say just under 55/45 and he's 4/6. Not enough value on Cross with the vig though.

van Barneveld/Whitlock - Raymond had his best game in some time against Price, but has mostly just been OK outside of that, Whitlock's scoring has been better and the best it's been for some time. Appears a pure coinflip, and the market agrees.

Clayton/Soutar - Jonny won the first ten legs before taking the foot off the gas completely against Heta, while Soutar needed leg difference bullshit to get through. Clayton's significantly better here, 80/20 would be overestimating Alan's chances slightly. Clayton is 1/3, so maybe a spot of value here.

Humphries/Smith - Luke did enough to win the group despite losing the final game vs Rock, while Smith probably would have been good without beating van Gerwen, but did so anyway hitting 180's for fun. Seems closer to 65/35 than 60/40 for Luke in this one, at 4/6 the favourite is the side we should be going, but there's not enough heat on Ross to consider it.

van Gerwen/Rock - If this isn't match of the season then I don't know what will be. van Gerwen won his first two and improved his scoring in the last one despite not getting home, while Rock got the legs he needed in his final game and ended up taking the last match for good measure. This is one of the few matches where Josh is legitimately the underdog, but it's only the heavy side of a coin. 0.25u Rock 7/4, this looks like a nice enough play.

Aspinall/Wattimena - Jermaine contines his resurgence with a routine win over Gates which got him the legs needed to eliminate Heta, while Nathan took down Wright to win the group. Should be a comfortable enough one for Aspinall, 70/30 seems like about the right spot, maybe slightly lower given Wattimena is peaking but he's only 5/2 so can't say a play here.

So just riding the Rock hype train some more. This'll be a real good test of where he's at.

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