Sunday 27 November 2022

PC quarters

Seems like we've cut out most of the weaker names on the Saturday, didn't see too many things in terms of huge surprises - maybe the biggest thing was Scott Williams seeing off Dave Chisnall, not an absurd upset but in current form, you'd have expected Chizzy to get that one way more often than not, Campbell went close against Noppert, Edhouse against van den Bergh, but other than those near misses, it was incredibly chalky, and thankfully we didn't actually pull the trigger on most of what we were looking at, as other than Joyce (of course we pick the wrong round to go against Wattimena) it wouldn't have done so well. Quarters coming in, here's what we think:

Rydz/Clayton - Probably the one name we didn't expect to see get this far is Callan Rydz, but he's definitely taken advantage of the draw opening up, having faced the 33, 64 and 48 seeds respectively, needed to make a bit of a comeback against Barry, but did so. Clayton's having a decent event, was pushed by Ross Smith but other than that hasn't really been put under pressure, O'Shea didn't actually average badly but didn't get the chances (and certainly didn't take any he got), while Joyce's average dropped a lot in the second game of the day, maybe ran out of a bit of steam but still looking good for the PDPA qualifier where he should be among the favourites. Clayton looks to be a little more than a 2-1 favourite, that's all you can get on Rydz, while Clayton is a little bit the wrong side. Can ignore this one comfortably.

Noppert/van Gerwen - This is going to be a great one, would really like Noppert to cause the upset to really solidify a Premier League place, he was really comfortable against Wade but pushed all the way to a decider in a bit of a scrappy game against Campbell, where it looks like he gifted the Canadian some legs easily, which he won't be able to do here. van Gerwen dealt with a brief rally by Menzies to shut the tie out, and then put down a statement average with a 10-6 win over Dimitri to reach this stage. Noppert's game is good enough that it looks like a 65/35 game to me, it's round about the same price as the game above, maybe a tick more slanted towards the favourite, which isn't anywhere near enough to consider taking Danny in this one. Very much live, but not a betting opportunity.

van Duijvenbode/Cross - Dirk swept away Gurney really comfortably before nicking an instant classic against Searle which may well end up being the match of the season - maybe if Searle didn't open up 30 then 26, it's a different story (Dirk did repay the favour first time with a 44, but not the second). Cross needed to break Anderson in a decider and did so, before getting a solid early lead against Schindler with a good run of six straight legs (albeit two were absolute gifts of breaks) and then holding out for 10-6 from there. This one is tight. Dirk should be favoured, but not by much - 55/45 looks right to me. Cross is 6/4 in places (oddschecker not behaving, so only looking at limited options), 7/4 I might be tempted, but averaging 112 over 19 legs is a scary standard.

Humphries/Cullen - Luke hit back to back ton averages yesterday, first in a 6-4 win over de Decker, then in a 10-7 win over Ratajski which could have been more one sided but for a little bit of a rally in the second session where Ratajski got a four visit break and punished two legs with missed doubles for breaks back. Joe took apart a statistically disappointing Huybrechts and was given a decent enough inspection by surprise package Scott Williams albeit one where he was never really in trouble after a 4-1 first session lead. Seems 2-1 in favour of Humphries, we can get 4/6. This is a little bit similar to the Cross analysis, except this time we've got the projection further away from 50/50 and the line is closer, and we've got the favourite as being undervalued. This is incredibly close to a play, the only thing that is a concern is that it's Cullen, who we always tend to underrate. I'm happy enough with my decision not to bet, and that is going to close the season up at just under a three unit gain with an ROI approaching 8% - a little down from last season, but still solid enough.

Elsewhere, there's a return for Dartslive this weekend but as always information is a bit sketchy and limited, but good to see a big soft tip event going ahead, and Jimmy Hendriks won the West Europe qualifier. Will see what happens tonight, then I'll try to pick out blind three players to bink the PDPA qualifier (two if Rock somehow loses to Girvan) which will naturally end up all in the same section of the draw. Be back later.

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