Sunday 13 November 2022

Slam day 2

Lost the only bet, only a small flier anyway. Some minor surprises on day one, what do we think of day 2?

Noppert/Whitlock - Danny was below par and nearly let Perez steal a win, will need to improve against Whitlock, who wasn't brilliant against Suljovic but did enough. Seems like around 60/40 for Noppie, that's fine.

Chisnall/Evetts - Dave wasn't brilliant against Barney who took his chances, while Ted wasn't too bad against Price but was just outclassed. Should be a routine three out of four match for Chizzy, market has it a little bit shorter again but not enough to consider Evetts here.

Price/van Barneveld - Both players did what they needed to here without ever really getting into top gear. Gerwyn should be strongly favoured to get through here, talking 70/30. As such, 7/2 on Barney is getting into the ballpark where I could consider a punt, especially with the crowd likely to be on his side. That's only on Hills, wouldn't take the 3/1 elsewhere. I'm not going to take the shot, but wouldn't disagree with you if you did take 7/2.

Rock/Williams - Josh maybe still getting a little bit used to the TV, losing a tight one to Searle which wasn't too impressive a game, while Scott got behind to Luke Humphries early and could never really recover. The price of 1/3 on Rock looks fine, maybe a vig free line would be slightly closer.

Humphries/Searle - Key match this, Luke was fine against Scott, Searle was not great against Rock but found a way to win. Humphries should be favoured fairly small in this one, 4/7 is a little bit too much, but a typical line of 11/8 on Searle is on par with where I'd expect things to be.

Schindler/Gawlas - Adam had a nice two leg cameo against Cross before Rob rolled things, while Schindler was edged out by Dirk in a decider which looked like a good game. Important one for Schindler to try to give himself a chance in the group, he's favoured but maybe shouldn't be quite as short as he is. I've got Gawlas at slightly over 35%, the price is close with some people offering 5/2, but there's not enough certainty to take the Czech prospect.

Suljovic/Perez - Christian looked alright against Noppie, but didn't seem to have an extra gear when needed, while Suljovic had a bit of a plodding game and could bring Perez into the equation if he repeats. Lacking data on Perez so can't give a great estimate, 10/3 should be considered if you like what you saw yesterday.

Smith/Cullen - Michael was up and down with three bad legs and five solid to very good legs, while Cullen did what Cullen does, being a little bit of Wade 2.0 getting the win without doing anything notable statistically. Smith should get this a little more than 60% of the time, market has it ever so slightly tighter so no play.

Aspinall/Sherrock - Nathan was fine against Soots, Alan was just a little bit better in the key moments. Sherrock was definitely meh against Wright. Aspinall wins but 1/11 is a bit lol.

Edhouse/Ashton - Ritchie didn't play too good in the opener, then again, neither did Lisa, although she still somehow managed to win three legs. Can't recommend 2/7 on Edhouse, we've seen enough from Lisa that despite not having the data she ought to be able to cause the upset roughly that often.

Cross/van Duijvenbode - This one should be the pick of the day, Cross looked superb after a couple of initial slow legs, while Dirk might have had the best performance of the day in a game against Schindler which went the distance. Very little to separate the two by, I've got DvD as a tiny favourite, call it 10/11? Nothing in the market to get excited by.

Heta/Gates - Damon continues to disappoint on TV, getting a couple of solid legs in but missing doubles and not really scoring enough elsewhere. Leonard wasn't terrible despite the scoreline, just couldn't get enough points on the board early enough in the legs to threaten Clayton, which is a little bit surprising as his power scoring isn't bad. Heta's extremely short, maybe slightly too short, I'd have gone with a 1/4 line, maybe pushing 2/9, rather than 2/11, but there's not enough to consider Gates here. Maybe if he'd nicked a leg or two you could start to think about it, but that might play on his mind a touch here.

Clayton/Wattimena - Jonny was fine, not really being threatened by Gates, while Jermaine continues to give us hints that he might be returning to form, maybe not to the stage where he was pushing towards the top 16, but at least enough that he can start to make steps back towards the top 32 and with it potential major qualification. Season long line says Wattimena ever so slightly more than one in four, and you can get 11/4 - so that looks right, but if you favour very small sample form, then don't let me stop you taking the Dutchman as it's break even on larger samples.

van Gerwen/Woodhouse - Michael was solid enough against Rafferty, not letting the youngster really make an impression on the game, while Luke edged it against Ross Smith which could be absolutely critical in this group. I'm very close to taking a flier on Woodhouse here. He's 4/1 widely available, and I'm thinking he shows enough that in a short format he'll get it 28% of the time. It's that marginal to a recommended play, that if money comes in on Michael and moves the line, it'd only take one tick for me to go for it.

Wright/Soutar - Peter won comfortably without even getting out of neutral, while Alan hit the good legs at the right time to get the key win over Aspinall. Like Wattimena a couple of paragraphs up, Soutar is another one that seems to have been regaining some of his form over the last month or so, but this is still going to be a tough ask, and getting one in four here would be generous. 10/3 looks close to a spot on line.

Smith/Rafferty - Ross lost to Woodhouse from 3-1 and 4-3 up, so will need to put that disappointment behind him in what's realistically a win or bust game for him. Rafferty doesn't have quite the same pressure given he has already played MvG so could still be live with a defeat, but a win would put him very live in a likely playoff for second against Woodhouse. He might be slightly undervalued, I'm thinking 65/35 in favour of Smudger, and we can get a little longer than 2/1. Not enough of a deviation to consider a bet though.

I'm off to catch up on WDF action from Malta and Ireland, and will likely come with the Monday plays shortly before kickoff.

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