Tuesday, 20 March 2018

It's alive!

Quick follow up on a couple of things I mentioned yesterday. Firstly, of course Barney won't be showing up to Leverkusen, because he took part in the UK qualifier to take advantage of the Raymond van Barneveld rule following a clash with the Premier League and lost to Ross Twell, oops. Secondly, Power BI works well enough without a log in to kick serious ass. It can't import .ods files (lol) so I've needed to export my data to .csv in order for it to work, but it does, so I can very quickly enter a table of players that are playing Leverkusen, relate it to my main sheet, set a date slicer to "the worlds and onwards" (in order to get some data on Kantele), and it does this:

https://i.imgur.com/fOqILBL.png

I'm not embedding it directly into the blog, as it's quite a wide file and it's hard to retain the level of data you get within a standard blogger template sizing (even after I've made it wider than usual to incorporate some of the other images I've made), but take a look. It's a similar scatter plot of average when winning legs to average when losing legs that I've done before, some things you might note:

- It's quite clear who the best two players in the field are
- Players to the top left of the trend line (if there was one there, which there isn't, I guess imagine a line between Atkins and van Gerwen) are doing somewhat better than the field when losing than winning. This may often be an indicator of running bad/running into good players, as arguably Suljovic has done a few times, or just generally being consistent, as you'd expect Wade to be (although he's much closer towards the main pack).
- If you look at Ian White you can see why he managed to win on Sunday, but if you look at Peter Wright you can see that talk of him having had a poor start to the season is a bit exaggerated.
- Wade seems to be playing a lot better this year so far, and of the unseeded players, look at Chris Dobey - that final run on Saturday may end up being the norm (perhaps not as extreme) rather than an extreme outlier.
- You may be able to win on the Challenge Tour but it doesn't mean you can play that well on the main tour.
- Alan Norris is not playing very well.

I'll need to see if I can incorporate a bunch of my match prediction algorithms into it. If so, that'd be incredibly sexy, but knowing how the software works it may be harder than you'd think. Expect a quick update once we know the European/home nation qualifiers, even if there's no bets should the linemakers be slow, which they often are.

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