Sunday, 25 March 2018

Leverkusen round 3 bets

Couple of disappointing results yesterday, most notably the White one where he never really got going and missed some doubles, Kanik wasn't allowed to do much which we expect to happen fairly often and is factored into the bet, Hughes was disappointing, having two legs in succession on the Suljovic throw when 3-1 up where he had eighteen darts to break and couldn't (not even getting a dart at double in one of them) and it was all over once he couldn't hold in eighteen. Henderson and Dobey I'm happy with, Clemens wasn't given a chance to break really, King holding three of his four throws in fifteen or less with the other one being a six visit leg, sure Clemens letting King break in six visits twice didn't help at all.

Today we've got the last sixteen, here's what I like:

Nothing on van Gerwen/Norris, MvG is rightly a big favourite and the line looks spot on.
0.25u Chisnall 10/11, I've got this as around 60/40 and while Whitlock looked a lot better than recently yesterday, it probably won't be enough if Chisnall can pull his game up slightly, against Kantele he was a bit sluggish but still won easily.
Meulenkamp/Pipe I have pretty much as a flip and as nobody is offering better than evens on either I'll avoid it.
There's very nearly tiny value on North but we're talking about a percentage point or two, if someone had gone silly and offered 10/1 then I'd think about it a bit more, and then still avoided it as Cross looked magnificent yesterday, last leg aside.
Very nearly a bet on Henderson against Wright, I've got him at just better than a 1 in 3 shout and we're getting slightly better than 2/1, both looked good yesterday which is the worrying thing - Henderson played as he has been doing but Wright looked better than he has been playing, so factoring that in I'll pass.
Bookies have Cullen/Dobey straight down the line, I've got Dobey as a tiny (not even 52%) favourite, the best I can see on a quick check is evens so I'll miss, if there's a 6/5 rogue line anywhere I'd grab it.
Suljovic/King I think is almost worth a tiny bet on King, the data I have on Suljovic this season is limited and still reckoning he's better when losing than winning, so I'm not willing to trust it too much. I actually have King projected as a 55/45 favourite, oddly enough.
Smith/Wade line looks fine to me. Wade's playing well enough that I've got him winning just more than one in three, there's 8/13 Smith out there which is very close.

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