Saturday 3 March 2018

UK Open round 5 bets

Follow up from the previous post:

- no bet on Smith/West, might be some fractional value on Steve but nowhere near enough for me to recommend it as a bet.
- no bet on Wattimena/Anderson, again I think the favourite is a bit too short but Jermaine isn't quite long enough to recommend a play, Ando looked clinical earlier.
- Cadby line again looks OK, I thought this might have been a bit longer and we could speculate on Dobey but only 5/2 isn't the edge that we need.
- 0.5u King 1/4, both my line and the Elo line (whose stats do take match length into account by the way) have King at 88% in a match where we're being offered an 80/20 line, that's good enough for me. Would fire stronger, but Part's game seems better this weekend than the stats going in so won't go crazy.
- 1u White 1/3, the Elo stats look on the money but I've got him at over 88%, hitting 8/10 legs in under fifteen darts in both games so far (including three four visit legs earlier) and good consistency stats make me think Owen can't keep this close enough.
- Pallett line looks close to perfect, when I have it 70/30 and Huybrechts is 2/5 I can't go here.
- No bet on the Hogan game, we're on fairly limited info with him and while Betfair offer an outlier price that'd be tempting I think that gets palped.
- Cross/Ratajski line looks very close to accurate, if I'm going on Elo then Ratajski could be worth a minor punt, but I'm not, so he isn't.

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