Saturday, 3 March 2018

UK Open round 4

Quick bets as time is of the essence:

Dobey/Lowe - Dobey should be favourite but not by as much as this I think, 0.25u Lowe 21/10

Hughes/White - White looks to be more than a 2/1 favourite here in my book, 0.5u White 8/13

Part/Meulenkamp - Meulenkamp seems an even bigger favourite than White but the odds are about the same, 0.5u Meulenkamp 4/7

West/Edgar - line looks about fine, West not quite a 2:1 favourite

Gurney/Huybrechts - Gurney's actually been playing decently well on the floor of late and Kim's not really been up to his level, 0.5u Gurney 8/15

Brown/Ratajski - this looks close with Ratajski having the minor edge, which is how the bookies see it as well

King/Clayton - Seems pretty much even money to me, Clayton not being quite long enough odds against to punt against someone who beat Barney just yesterday

Owen/Rafferty - Even closer to a flip than the previous game. Bookies also have it even closer to a flip, so no bets here

Bunting/Wattimena - Bunting close, but not quite at, a 2:1 favourite, we're being offered 4/6 which is nearly enough but not quite

Anderson/Evans - Anderson is a big favourite, seems a bit too big, should be more like 1/3 than 1/5, Evans is a tempting outsider but I'll pass

Pallett/Wade - Line looks close to OK, Wade almost a value punt at just the right side of 1/3, looks safe for acca chasers

van Duijvenbode/Price - This looks a good Price bet, seems a much bigger favourite than the line suggests, 0.5u Price 2/5

Hogan/de Zwaan - Big story either way here, with limited Hogan knowledge of recent I can't suggest a bet

Meikle/Smith - Smith is a big, big favourite and rightly so, no real underdog value on Meikle here, who can certainly play but it's too big an ask against Smith in this form

Cross/Anderson - Similar analysis to the Wade game. Cross is rightly favourite and should get this home around the amount the line suggests, perhaps a little bit more often

Cadby/Schindler - Schindler might be a live punt, but given the trip he's made just to be here he might not be 100% which is what he'd need to realise his equity

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