Sunday, 4 March 2018

UK Open semi finals

Very disappointed that West couldn't capitalise on the break chance he had in the first session, then went completely to pieces after Pallett broke in the last leg of the second session (highlight being with 92 left, if you're going to play it safe, start on 20's, but to go bull first and then set up tops after going 25-17? What the hell?), but Owen dominated Part to salvage something.

Ando came through and should be the hot favourite, but he's drawn Pallett while Cadby has Owen, so the two biggest names that are left are separated. Odds are only just trickling through, but the tournament sponsors have Cadby at 1/4 and Anderson at 1/10, while I have Anderson winning at an 87.67% clip (on all darts since the worlds) and Cadby at 83.69%, so I don't think I'll be betting on these at all unless oddschecker shows me more lines (I'm not trawling through every site) and someone has the Cadby/Owen line as a lot closer.

Have projected the potential finals as well, and I have the following winning chances:

Gary Anderson - 54.64%
Corey Cadby - 39.85%
Robert Owen - 2.85%
Dave Pallett - 2.66%

Seems to be a case of lay the hell out of Gary Anderson and/or just back Cadby with Ando being shorter than 1/2. 3/1 Cadby outright seems to be a huge price.

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