Friday 2 March 2018

UK Open round 3 bets

Less than an hour to go and I've not looked at any individual stats (other than seeing Reyes missed three clear at double sixteen to win, bastard) so I'm going to be very brief and very cautious on tipping, and look in depth at lines that look :

- Stevenson looks close at 3/1, especially given a big run in the last Pro Tour weekend, but Wade also had one and was actually playing good darts for a change.
- Would have fired on Wattimena against Beaton at slightly odds against, but he didn't play well today even though he won 6-0, Beaton's misfiring but Wattimena will need to do better to clean up.
- Aspinall is kind of tempting at 10/1 against Cross, I've seen weirder things happen - what the heck, 0.1u Aspinall 10/1
- Pallett's kind of tempting at around 6/4 or so, but Thornton looked OK in the second of last weekend's Players Championship events so will pass.
- Part of me wants to go for de Zwaan against van Gerwen at even longer odds than Aspinall against Cross, but I'll avoid that.
- White over Whitlock looks to be decent value, Ian was playing incredibly in the second Pro Tour event in a run to the semi final that'll walk all over Whitlock, 0.25u White 11/8
- Would go for Keegan Brown over Joe Cullen, but Keegan managed to get through and not throw one good leg (see also Wattimena, Jermaine), Cullen had a good four run spurt that put Perales away and seems to be on it today to a large enough extent that I'll avoid it.
- Ward looks an OK punt against Dobey. Dobey's getting a bit better but Ward's won 12 of 13 legs today, while his first game he didn't need to do much, against Evetts he looked to be putting in enough decent darts that he could cause damage often enough to get home given the line, 0.25u Ward 23/10

Nothing more, I'm going to enter today's matches so far then brave the winds and go down the pub. Expect a round 4 preview tomorrow morning.

Edit - this afternoon was effectively break even at down a tenth of a unit, had two matches voided.

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