Saturday, 20 April 2019

ET3 betting

One thing I didn't mention yesterday is that on Thursday I was F5ing my phone frequently to try to see when the draw would be out, forgetting completely that the Easter event runs Saturday to Monday. You'd think I should know that given the Monday session in Munich is one of the two events I've been to in Germany, but oh well. As mentioned yesterday, I'm thinking that Dolan and Evetts being slight favourites in the first two games look to be solid lines, so let's go straight to game 3:

Monk/Puls - Someone was saying that a lot of German kids are in Wigan for the Development Tour (although I'm not seeing this on the entry list in huge numbers), so this, along with having five host nation qualifiers, has allowed the likes of Puls, who we've not seen since 2016, to qualify. Monk should have no trouble the way he's playing, but I'm avoiding this - seeing a best price of 3/10 isn't enticing, and Puls put up some OK numbers in the qualifier, 83 in the last round wasn't great but he got no help, but 90+ in the two previous rounds causes just enough doubt.

Brown/Caris - Ah, Magnus, long time no see. Not even in the qualifier, given that took place in October. Seriously. We know what we're going to get from Caris, it's about the same line as what we had in the previous game, I'm not going to rush to put anything on Keegan at that price.

Smith/Barilli - Ought to be comfortable for Smith really, we've not seen a huge deal from Barilli since he dropped off the tour after 2017, but he's got to here and also Austria next month, as well as making the UK Open through the pub qualifiers, where he lost first round to Huckvale but wasn't bad, on the Challenge Tour he's averaging 84, so I'm guessing that another line that's around 75/25 Smith looks alright.

Payne/Artut - Jyhan's making a bit of a habit of coming through the new look qualifiers, and it's another game where he's a fairly large dog. He lost 6-0 to Koltsov and 6-4 to Plaisier earlier, Josh is a fair bit better than those in my opinion, and Artut failed to break 81 in any of his qualifying matches yesterday, so I think there's enough edge for 0.5u Payne 2/5, Josh ought to have no trouble coming through.

Sedlacek/Portela - The first game we're looking at today where there's no real favourite, the market shading it for Sedlacek by real fine margins. Sedlacek won the qualifier for this back in January, shortly after an alright Q-School showing, where him and Portela averaged within a tenth of a point of each other. It does seem too close to call, I want to lean Portela given he's been playing a higher standard of player more frequently in the last couple of months, but I can't recommend a bet.

Anderson/Munch - Seems a while since Munch knocked off Adrian Lewis in the worlds, it's his first appearance of the season and there wasn't anything in the qualifier yesterday that makes me think he can threaten someone of Kyle's calibre, 0.5u Anderson 2/5.

Beaton/Derry - To the evening session we go and it's the ever-present Steve Beaton against new tour card holder Nathan Derry, who to be fair has had a fairly slow start to his professional career. Derry's well down in the points per turn stakes at 85, a clear seven behind Steve who's rating much stronger than the market suggests - 0.5u Beaton 2/5.

Norris/Bunting - This'd have been a great game in the BDO in 2014 or there abouts, now it's a matchup between someone running hot and cold, and someone just running cold. Hard to bet on, the model's liking Bunting 70/30 but we're only seeing 8/15, maybe keep an eye out if there's any money on Norris that might nudge the line, but I doubt that happens.

Ratajski/Schindler - This ought to be a better game to see who gets to play van Gerwen tomorrow, Ratajski's installed as the favourite by about the same margin as Bunting is in the previous game. I'm also seeing this game as about the same as that one - 70% for Ratajski. Maybe if you're in Germany and you've got a book I'm not seeing that's pricing Schindler shorter than he should be on domestic donk betting, then you can think about going Krzysztof?

Dobey/Rasztovits - Michael got through a fairly small field associate qualifier, we'll scrub the first game as his opponent was averaging less than I do, but 86, 93 and 82 in the decider isn't a horrible standard. Then again, in that final where he only won 6-5, he threw absolute filth to gift van de Wal four of his legs. 0.5u Dobey 4/9, Chris is playing too well and he should be able to push through into the second round.

Huybrechts/Horvat - Dragutin's here again, and after a questionable opening game, averaged in the high 80's to beat Eidams and Tautfest, which is round about where we expect him to be. Kim's a big favourite, I think on current form he's probably too big of a favourite, but I'd really liked to have seen more of Dragutin's form to think about laying the Belgian. A quick look at the German Superleague standings isn't filling me with enough confidence.

Clemens/Evans - Two players with data, thank god, although the data's telling me they can't be split. So as the line's close to evens I'll move onto the next game. Should be a cracker that goes the distance.

Hughes/Durrant - Holy shit guys! We've got two players in the top ten of points per turn and they're meeting in round one! I think I have to go 0.25u Hughes 6/5 on this one, he's playing the better darts, he's just not been getting the results that Durrant has. It's not by much, but the projection I have says Hughes 60/40 which is enough to go at odds against.

Hurtz/Reyes - Final game of the night, Hurtz having a similar qualifying profile to a few others, where he's had a dodgy opening game against an opponent of questionable standards, then put in mid 80's averages to get through. Reyes is 4/11 and I think he's just about doing enough to justify that line, winning a board last weekend should give him a bit of confidence and may point to him trending in the right direction.

That's your lot, four fairly solid odds on picks and then trusting the numbers over the results in Hughes/Durrant. Be back this evening or tomorrow morning with round two.

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