Sunday, 21 April 2019

ET3 day 2 - A bad Saturday after a good Friday

Pretty weird evening session, where after picking up two straightforward wins in the afternoon, we lost all three bets, none of them being particularly close. Looks like missed doubles primarily - Beaton had three clear in leg one, one in leg two, then three clear again in leg four - he'd only later get one shot at the bull, but if he's able to take the two where he's walking up with three darts, that's a 3-1 lead he has with the throw, and psychologically it's a whole different game. Same with Dobey, the first leg's a clown show where he requires 40, doesn't kill it, returns on 20 and still doesn't kill it - he's not really at the races after that, especially on the Rasztovits throw, but did that affect his game? We'll never know. Durrant beating Hughes is fine, Glen played well, but you'd expect Hughes to clean up 32 to break in the opener. Pin the one dart he got in the next to hold and it's 2-0, then 3-1, and he's got a bit of a cushion to withstand Durrant giving nothing away on throw after that.

So now the seeds some in - I think my body clock's right in thinking that it's Sunday, after yesterday being awfully confused in that it was the day after the football, but also the first day of a Euro Tour, so not knowing whether it's Friday or Sunday when in fact it's neither, let's look at today's schedule:

White/Sedlacek - Interesting for Ian to come in first up. Karel was playing really well but got a bit nervy in the later stages of his game against Portela, eventually falling over the line 6-4. Ian should be too strong, but I can't see a bet on this, he's shorter than 1/3 so it's kind of tempting to lay him, but we don't know how Karel will react against a world class operator.

Clayton/Evetts - The Ferret's up next against Ted Evetts, who got past Mark Wilson comfortably enough, good checkout rate and conventional average, although the advance stats I use think that the 96 is a bit inflated (Evetts winning 5/6 legs first or second dart of the final visit helping, that and being left on 116 after nine when Wilson pins 161). Market has this around 2-1 in favour of Clayton, I can't disagree with that in the slightest, I'm showing this as the same within a tenth of a percent.

Webster/Derry - We touched on Nathan's game above and now he's up against Darren Webster, who you can't really think is better than Steve on recent form, so maybe he can punch through to the final day? The line's about the same as the previous game, and the projections I have point to a Webster bet. It's 80/20 or there abouts. 0.25u Webster 1/2, I don't think Derry can get quite so lucky with his opponent missing doubles twice in a row, although I'm going smaller than yesterday as there's a big consistency difference (Derry's winning and losing scoring is within a point of each other whereas Darren's is over five) and maybe the confidence from yesterday's win boosts his game a chunk.

Noppert/Bunting - Should be good this, Stephen took down Norris with the loss of just one leg (did like Alan's 25-tops-tops out though), probably the performance of the day from the Bullet. Noppie squeezed into the seeds as Price withdrew so this could end up being an effective final. I'm seeing a small edge for Noppert, up in the high 50% range to take it, so 0.25u Noppert evs, Danny going deep in the last Pro Tour event making this a bit easier to shoot for.

Gurney/Anderson - This looks like a really good afternoon session. Kyle got past Kevin Munch without really getting out of first gear, he'll need to up his game against the most recent Euro Tour winner in Gurney, but I think he can - 0.25u Anderson 7/4, he's outscoring Gurney this year by a clear point, and projections using winning legs think the price is the wrong way around, so taking this price is obvious.

Chisnall/Monk - Arron was in a little bit of bother against Puls early, going down 3-1 mainly due to a comedy opening leg, but rolled off five straight five visit legs from there. Chizzy's in form, but so's Arron - I don't think we're getting quite enough to bet on Arron here, I've got Dave at just short of 70%, so 11/4 is nearly there, but not quite. Keep an eye on it though, if there's movement because "omg Chisnall he's won titles this year pile on" then who knows. 10/3 or better and I'd go with it.

Wade/Huybrechts - Kim edged Dragutin Horvat in a deciding leg, messy game all round but Kim put together three decent legs from a 5-3 deficit to get home. Wade on current form is exactly the sort of player you don't want to be messing about against, sadly the market's caught on to Kim not playing well and 1/3 Wade is pretty much where the line should be.

Lewis/Edhouse - Ritchie put in a small surprise against Brendan Dolan, getting home 6-4, but Adie's a huge step up in quality. 4/1's actually half tempting, as I've got Edhouse at slightly over 25% to take it, but I just don't see it actually happening.

Hopp/Brown - Into the evening session, interesting scheduling putting Hopp on first. Keegan got through a scrappy affair with Magnus Caris, going down 5-4 but then Magnus's game fell apart in the last two legs, maybe a bit reminiscent of that game with Beaton at the worlds a long time ago. The bookies can't split these, but I can - 0.25u Hopp evs, after laying the hell out of Max at every opportunity in 2018, he's actually playing good stuff in 2019, albeit quietly, enough that I'm projecting he takes this 60% of the time, so even money looks great there.

van Gerwen/Ratajski - Krzysztof took out Schindler 6-2, let's cut to the chase, Krzysztof is clearly playing well enough that he can win this. 0.1u Ratajski 13/2, he's a dog, but nowhere near a big a dog as that. The projections I have put him at nearly 40%!

Cross/Rasztovits - This is the same line as above, but while Cross is a little bit worse than van Gerwen, Rasztovits is a lot worse than Ratajski, so how about no.

Smith/Evans - Could be over real quick this one, even if it goes eleven legs. Line looks alright to me, I'm seeing Smith at just north of 70% and the Evans line is floating between 2/1 and 5/2, so let's move on. This is the sort of game Ricky needs to be winning to really push forward and up the rankings.

Suljovic/Payne - Josh handled Jyhan Artut very comfortably, Mensur's a whole different ballgame. The market has Payne a little bit longer than 2/1, it's not really enough to consider the bet, I'd have put the line at 15/8 maybe? Josh has got chances for sure, but will probably need to play a bit better than he did yesterday.

Cullen/Durrant - Joe's in trouble here. Glen didn't really give Hughes a sniff after the first 2-3 legs, and Cullen's done little this season to suggest he's playing at Durrant's level. I don't think the market's adjusted enough yet - 0.25u Durrant 4/6, this looks more 70/30 than 60/40 to me, I'm only tempering the bet size on account of Joe being in the arena where he performs the best, or at least has over the last year and a half.

Whitlock/Reyes - Huge game for Whitlock. He's out of the seeds from ET5 onwards, and hasn't made the next two, so Cristo, who didn't look too great against Michael Hurtz, could be in with a fair shout here. He'll probably need to improve a bit here, but I'm really not seeing why Whitlock is a favourite here. I've got Reyes over 60% to claim this so 0.25u Reyes 5/4 is a clear bet, it's just an irritant that Reyes is so god damn inconsistent. Again, similar to Noppert, it's a good sign that Cristo did alright in the last Pro Tour weekend, I'd bet him even if he'd missed on both of them probably, but it adds confidence.

Wright/Smith - Final game, Ross cleaned up against Mark Barilli, he probably wasn't at his best but didn't need to be, Peter's scoring fine and is perhaps running a touch bad, but it wouldn't take much to knock him off his game, see him switch darts more than once, 9/4's not really tempting as I've only got Ross a fraction of a percent better than a 1 in 3 chance, but you never know.

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