Sunday, 28 April 2019

ET4 last 16 betting

Hmm, seems to be one of those weekends where you can't miss on Jamie Hughes but can't hit on the rest of the field, hitting on him over Whitlock, but Hopp, Lennon, Richardson and van den Bergh all missing. Three of those were fairly large underdogs on the market so you're only needing one hit to break even, Hopp was a bit disappointing but Hendo wasn't giving much at all so fair play to John. Eight matches this afternoon, let's rattle through them:

Price/Hughes - Real test for Jamie here, but these are the sorts of players he needs to beat if he wants to try to punch into the Matchplay, he certainly can, and I'm seeing the game as real close to evens, such is the level of Jamie's play - shame the market's already adapted.

Cross/Cullen - Cross is a big favourite here after advancing through a decent quality encounter with Chris Dobey, while Cullen wasn't tested by Jerry Hendriks in the slightest. Line looks alright, Cross being at 4/11, I think that he could even be a little shorter but as we always say, Cullen brings his best on the Euro Tour so I'm not going to be lumping on Rob at all.

Lewis/Henderson - Two players I laid yesterday, both advancing 6-3 to reach this stage. Lewis is favoured at 4/7, which seems a little bit too short, I'm getting Hendo in the low 40% range to claim this one, is the 8/5 offered quite enough? It's close, but I'll move on.

White/Webster - Ian got past Jeffrey de Zwaan, slotting in two four visit legs to ice the game, while Webster was professional enough in dealing with the challenge of Vincent van der Meer but the common 6-3 scoreline. This is a bit similar to the previous game, but the other way around in terms of the potential bet - White's 8/15 and I have him at 70%. There's not quite enough there, Ian's far too likely to underperform so I'll pass, despite Darren apparently struggling with some sort of injury issue.

Wright/Chisnall - Peter cruised to victory against Steve Lennon, getting the break in the first and then another later to claim a 6-2 win, Chizzy was in a quick 2-0 hole against Evetts but turned it around for a 6-3 win. This is too close to call, I've got Chizzy by a very slight margin, the market has it the other way, but I don't think there's any edge here even before you factor in both player's respective performances yesterday, where Wright was much better.

Suljovic/Gurney - Daryl got through a fun game against Dave Pallett 6-2 (if you haven't seen it, go and check out the replay of Pallett revving the crowd up as he's lining up the bull for a 170 out, only to lay up), while Suljovic needed every leg to get through Mickey Mansell, who frankly was playing better. This is really close to a Suljovic bet, he's just odds on and I've got Mensur at a 57/43 advantage, if you want to go for it, do so, but something doesn't feel quite right so I won't push what isn't a huge edge.

Wade/Aspinall - James came from 5-2 down to beat Luke Humphries, who missed match darts and it sounds like Luke's going to take a bit of a break from darts on Twitter, he should do whatever's best for him really. Aspinall beat Jonny Clayton easily enough 6-3. It's yet another game where the line looks just fine - I'm thinking about 60/40, Nathan's 8/5... maybe Stockport's promotion yesterday will push Nathan to higher levels?

van Gerwen/van Barneveld - Frankly this is the one that everyone's going to be interested in. van Gerwen got through van den Bergh 6-1, neither playing great, while Raymond took out Wattimena in a deciding leg after being pegged back from a 4-1 lead, needing to break Jermaine in the decider, where if Wattimena had got more than one big treble in his first fifteen darts, he probably wins. 0.1u van Barneveld 11/2, Raymond's got 120 won legs in my 2019 sample so not exactly short, and they're showing him as a 75/25 dog, so let's take a stab, van Gerwen wasn't exactly good yesterday and Barney has previous with upsetting the world number one.

Not much here really, might be back later for the quarters, will be back after the event's done to recap today's events.

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