Saturday, 27 April 2019

ET4 day 2

Quick round up, bets weren't great, Hughes got home, although Dolan had some great legs to keep it close, but everything else was a washout - Richardson was generally playing better than Jones to be fair, Wayne kept it to 5-5, had the throw but could only get down to a high outshot after 15 and that was that, West ran into Mickey Mansell playing probably the best he's done all year, while de Zwaan was unplayable for three legs and pretty good for the rest, not much Anderson could have done differently except maybe in the final leg.

Who else impressed? Beaton hit the nine which is great to see (straight after a 150 out as well so 12+ perfect darts), Barney actually played good stuff to not give Clemens much of a chance at all, Wenig was alright in defeat and on another day, maybe he nicks it from Dobey, and Henderson edged a game we thought would be tight, finding a four visit kill to seal the game.

Today the seeds are in, the only associate looks to be Hendriks so we should have good data on everyone:

Webster/van der Meer - Vincent's game with Koch wasn't the worst of the day, but it was close, Darren's got a good shot here, but is a prohibitive favourite, 1/3 isn't value and there's not enough of an edge to consider Vincent in this one.

Whitlock/Hughes - Hopefully this is the game where Hughes bursts through and goes deep, he couldn't get a better seed to play against out of anyone, the odds are far too close, 0.5u Hughes 4/6, Ladbrokes have this closer than most for reasons best known to themselves but this is good all the way through to at least 2/5. Jamie's that good and Simon isn't. (edit @ 11:25 - the Ladbrokes 4/5 listed on oddschecker had gone by the time I posted, so reverting to the next best price, which is definitely still there)

Cullen/Hendriks - Jerry got by James Wilson but the game was a bit of a mess really, Cullen's too short but ought to have no trouble, there's not enough data to properly assess Jerry's chances but against Cullen in Europe they look slim.

Gurney/Pallett - Dave got through a swingy encounter against Mike de Decker that went all 11 legs, there's nearly value to go with him today, I'm thinking it's around 70/30 in favour of Gurney and 10/3 is available, but Dave didn't do quite enough yesterday for me to take a stab at it.

Lewis/Richardson - Talked about James earlier, Adie's next up, this is oddly a bet on Richardson, he's 11/4 and I'm projecting this to be Adie's game only about two times out of three. He was just about impressive enough that I'll go with it, 0.25u Richardson 11/4, he won't fear big names at all.

Price/Beaton - Nice second round game this, Beaton was extremely solid outside of that nine darter, so should give Price at the minimum a good workout, the line of just over 2/1 for Steve looks solid enough, maybe it's favouring Gerwyn slightly too much but it's not enough to bet.

White/de Zwaan - Tough game for Ian, Jeffrey looks to have fully regained his 2018 form on the senior stage as well as the youth stage, the bookies have this pretty close to even with Ian as the slight favourite, I don't see this any differently so this'll just be one to enjoy by the looks of things.

Wade/Humphries - Luke whitewashed Jirkal, who scored alright but just couldn't score quite heavily enough with the game Luke was playing to get more than a few shots at double (which he obviously missed). Wade'll be a much tougher test, if the vig goes out of the market this might be worth a small underdog punt on Humphries, I'm seeing 35% for him so 9/4 isn't quite there for me, if more money goes in on James then think about it.

Chisnall/Evetts - Ted got by Kamphuis with little fuss, Chizzy's going to be a much harder game, the odds look about right for this one, Dave's 4/9 and I think he's around 70/30, maybe slightly higher.

Clayton/Aspinall - Ought to be a very good game, Nathan got past a bit of a below his best Nilsson in round one, it's another one that the market looks to have right, they're seeing Nathan as a slight favourite and so am I, wouldn't be surprised to see this go all the way and be decided by who wins the bull.

Cross/Dobey - Chris got past Lukas Wenig 6-4 yesterday, he didn't play that well but got home, he'll need to up his game against Cross, I can't see any value in this market, this looks bang on 75/25 in favour of the former world champion and he's 1/3 at the bookies.

Wright/Lennon - Steve eliminated Kevin Munch easily enough, he's been a bit under the radar so this'll give us a better idea of where he's at, the projections, despite Lennon being quiet, think this is a fairly even match up, Wright being favourite but only 55/45, although there's a lot more inconsistency in Steve's game. I think we go with it, 0.25u Lennon 12/5, Peter isn't exactly overflowing with confidence at the moment.

Hopp/Henderson - This should be fun. This looks fairly similar to the match Hopp had with Brown last week, where the market can't separate them, but the model is saying that Hopp should claim it about 60% of the time, 0.25u Hopp 10/11 seems worth a shot.

Suljovic/Mansell - Mensur is understandably a big favourite here, Mickey played better than he has done recently in knocking out Steve West, but it's not enough to make me think that installing him as a 7/2 dog in this game isn't a fair line.

van Gerwen/van den Bergh - Dimitri was involved in a bloody awful game against newcomer Kohnlein, he won 6-2 but only one leg in the match was in under 15 darts (and it wasn't by Dimitri, obviously). I think we have to go with a mandatory 0.1u van den Bergh 5/1, as the model still likes his game, while the consistency issue is large I'm thinking he can claim this well more than 20% of the time. He's going to have to play better than yesterday obviously.

Wattimena/van Barneveld - These have met twice in Barnsley this year and Jermaine's won both, dropping just five legs in the process, yesterday was a good sign for Barney, I want him to get through so we can see MvG against Barney for possibly one last time, he's a dog, but not by much, and not by enough that I want to bet Wattimena at evens.

That's it, if you do just one bet make it Hughes.

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