Monday, 22 April 2019

ET3 last 16 bets

As the previous post may have indicated yesterday wasn't the greatest day for the plus and minus, I don't think there was any flaws in the reasoning, just ended up having a couple of players blow leads which they shouldn't have, and Noppert just not hitting doubles. We're down about a unit and a half so far, which still leaves us up five units for less than fifty invested for the season, but let's see if we can claw some of it back today:

van Gerwen/Bunting - Stephen's a shorter price today than Ratajski was yesterday? Seriously? It's fractional, sure, but if anyone's actually thinking that Bunting's better than Ratajski nowadays then that's a bit of a strange take, it's not as if the Euro Tour is going to attract a huge amount of casuals that they can sting on name value, anyone watching (and betting) on these is probably going to have a bit of a clue what's going on. It's probably still slight value, but 6/1 on a 25% chance... I don't see Stephen doing it.

Evans/Evetts - Big chance for either of these to make a quarter final, bookies can't separate them by much but make Ricky a small favourite, which after his win over Smith yesterday is understandable, the line looks pretty good to me, I've got Ricky a shade over 55%, so 8/11 is far too close to look to either side.

Cross/Gurney - We've had this one in the previous tournament at the same stage, there we bet Cross at 4/7, Gurney won, and went on to bink the title. This time Cross is actually shorter at 8/15, go figure. The projections have shifted slightly towards Gurney, it's not by much but combine the slightly less favourable price as well and Gurney having exact course and distance, I'm happy to pass on it.

Suljovic/Chisnall - Dave had the performance of the round yesterday as far as I'm concerned, Mensur meanwhile didn't put a single foot wrong against Josh Payne in a 6-2 romp, the comedy sixth leg aside. This should be a fun game - the bookies can't separate them for all intents and purposes, they've got Mensur as a tiny odds on favourite, I'm thinking it should be the other way, but it's close enough to even money that I can't see there's value there.

Sedlacek/Webster - Good shot for either of these, Darren was very solid against Nathan Derry, dropping just the one leg, while Sedlacek got over the line against White but neither looked brilliant in that one. Darren's 1/3 which I think is about right, we don't have anywhere near enough data on Karel to make any sort of accurate judgment.

Huybrechts/Hopp - Max was very competent against Keegan Brown, the first couple of legs aside, while Kim Huybrechts stunned James Wade. Bookies have it even, I just don't get that line at all - Hopp is playing far, far better so far this year - 0.25u Hopp 10/11, I'm almost tempted to make it half a unit given the event is in Hopp's backyard, it's really only Kim being able to edge out a decent operator yesterday, given his first round performance, maybe he's got a bit of playing to the level of his opponent about him?

Edhouse/Cullen - Ritchie shocked Adie yesterday in a game where all 11 legs went with throw, Edhouse just doing enough to creep home in six visits as Lewis missed chances to get the critical break. Cullen beat Durrant in a last leg decider with a cracking 180-130 out combo to break in 12 in that leg, Glen should have finished him earlier but that's done now, Cullen's listed at 2/5, I'm thinking 1/2 is probably a fair line but with the vig in play we can't get enough edge on Edhouse.

Smith/Whitlock - Ross took down Peter Wright last game yesterday, settled by just one break of throw, while Simon came from 3-1 down to beat Reyes 6-4. Bookies have this real close at 10/11 the pair, regular readers will be unsurprised to see that the projections favour Smith quite strongly, so 0.25u Smith 10/11, it's not quite the same level of edge as the Hopp game, but it's pretty close.

Just the two bets, but they both look strong, so load up.

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