Sunday, 5 May 2019

Back on track - ET5 day 3

Ah, that's better, underdog shots that actually hit. Thank you Steve Beaton and Darius Labanauskas. The upshot is that it clears what we lost on the last three days of play, of course, the other way you can look at it is the last ten legs played by players we've bet on have all been lost. That pesky van Gerwen, why is he so good?

Last 16 stage today, let's see what we have:

van Gerwen/Bunting - MvG steamrollered Lennon 6-0 while Bunting did the same to Darren Webster, van Gerwen's was more impressive although Lennon really should have kept it to 2-2 early on, you can't let van Gerwen break you twice in six visits in a race to 11. 0.1u Bunting 6/1, I'm going to be posting something later today on van Gerwen, but it does seem right now he's generally overvalued in the market. From a bookmaking perspective, it's understandable, but if they're going to keep giving us those odds when I think Stephen's around 26% on the year to nick it (maybe slightly higher on current form), I'm going to keep having small stabs at it, it really doesn't need to work that often to be profitable.

Wright/Kanik - Peter got through a decider against Chris Dobey, not the greatest of matches but he was here in the end. Kanik had probably his best win in the PDC, so much for Clayton being acca safe, 6-2 with a five leg run to close it is really quite nice. Tytus is obviously a dog again, if anything the line's a bit too much in Kanik's favour and we should be looking to Wright if anything. Of course, we said that yesterday... I don't fancy 2/7 really, Kanik looks to be playing better this season so I can't see a big edge.

Lewis/Aspinall - Real tight game in the market with the underdog being even money, Adie won a 6-5 tussle against Ryan Searle, coming from 5-3 down, he was playing alright until 3-3 but the game got scrappy from there. Nathan raced to a 4-0 lead, then was pegged back to 4-3 but still with the break, and held out from there against Dave Chisnall. It's correct for the market to be fairly tight, I think it should be 4/5 Aspinall rather than 10/11, but you can see there's no real money in this game.

Gurney/Webster - Touched on Daryl earlier as he got home against Boris Koltsov, was a close game early, but later, not so much, Mark managed to upset Joe Cullen, generally a sloppy game for 10 legs but he found a four visit kill on throw in the decider after losing a 5-2 lead, so fair play to Webby for getting home. The line rightly favours Gurney, it's maybe a touch too much in Daryl's favour, but not quite enough to consider betting Mark, I'd have probably gone 11/4 rather than 7/2. Might be worth a shot but I just don't believe in Mark's game to actually realise the chances the numbers say he has often enough.

Price/Labanauskas - Darius got the win over Ricky Evans, tidy enough game, while Price was professional enough against John Henderson in an odd game which saw them taking turns to win three legs in a row, Price starting and finishing that streak. Market's around 2-1 in favour of Price, I think that the Lithuanian's run ends here though, 5/11 is almost tempting but it's not quite there.

Suljovic/Wade - James got into a big lead against Mervyn King early and was able to see the game out comfortably, while Mensur was in a swingy encounter, but from 4-4 he held in five visits and broke in four to beat Barney. This is close in the market, but Wade's actually the favourite. It's real close to a bet with my projections showing Wade at a shade over 60%, but 4/5 isn't that tempting with the game being played in Austria (although if there's one person you'd pick to not be affected by a hostile crowd, it's probably Wade).

Cross/Beaton - Rob's probably lucky to be here - after being 4-2 down to de Zwaan, Jeffrey missed a dart for a 110 out (although only because Cross missed three open at D18), then three for the match in the deciding leg - probably should have been four, but reading the dartsdata scoring, it looks like he put the second dart out of the board aiming high to leave tops on an 80 out? Anyway, Rob faces the guy who put Michael Smith out, Cross is at the same line against Beaton as Smith was yesterday, which seems a bit odd given Cross smacked Smith about something silly on Thursday and has been playing better darts all year. It also means there's no repeat Beaton bet, Cross being better removes the edge we had yesterday and makes the line look fair enough.

White/Brown - Last game up, these two played in the last two games yesterday, White edging out Hughes 6-5, much improved game from Friday by Jamie but not quite enough to get home, he missed a lot of darts at double, but they were legs he won anyway, which is testament to his scoring I guess. Brown beat Hopp 6-4, neither seemed capable of holding their throw for long, but Brown did just enough in a game that can hardly be called a classic. White's around 60/40 in the market, seems extremely accurate, I've got White at 62%.

So, only the one bet and it's a punt against MvG. What I'm going to look at later is whether van Gerwen's just overvalued in general, and whether we should just lay him at every opportunity. I've got some data from the guy who does FDI (the Elo-based rating system) to give a second set of ratings and win chances so I can compare and contrast the two.

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