Saturday, 4 May 2019

ET5 day 2

Not a whole amount unexpected on day 1, apart from van Duijvenbode forgetting to score, my god, the other two bets did come in, albeit a bit more closely than expected, so it's only a minor loss that we can look to get back today.

I suppose the real surprise yesterday was the general low quality of play - sure, the home nation and random qualifiers were who we thought they were, but I can't remember the last time I saw so many seven plus visit legs. Sure, it takes two players to produce such a leg as they both have to fuck it up, but Hughes was probably the worst we've seen him all year. Barney and de Zwaan had two 15 dart legs between them. Searle and Bunting both had two 19+ dart legs. Keegan Brown, in amongst him and Conan throwing 180's for fun, had two. Mark Webster only managed one fifteen darter. I think the only players that looked on point were Labanauskas, Gilding (who's gone anyway), and King. Could we see a lot of chalk today as a result? Let's take a look.

Evans/Labanauskas - Ricky's first up in his first event as a seed, Darius was one of the players who did well yesterday with a couple of four visit legs and a near 104 average. Market thinks 60/40. That looks maybe a bit too one sided to me, I'm seeing Evans as the favourite, but it's 52/48, so given Darius made a semi final in midweek and played well yesterday, I'm going to take the 0.25u Labanauskas 6/4 shot, as he's probably playing the best he has all year.

Cullen/Webster - Mentioned Mark earlier, didn't play great but didn't play awful, or need to play great, Joe's a different proposition on the European Tour and did get a bit of a run midweek as well, but there's nothing to bet here - it's around a 2/5 against 21/20 game, and I'm thinking 70/30, so next please.

Smith/Beaton - Michael got pummelled in the Premier League by Cross two days ago to end his campaign, maybe that takes the shackles off? Who knows. Steve continues his ever present run, he was OK against Barilli yesterday I guess. Similar line to the previous game, but I'm seeing Steve with better chances than Webby does - just over 40%. With Smith needing the result to potentially remain in the seeds for upcoming Euro Tours, maybe the pressure tells. 0.25u Beaton 12/5 seems alright to me.

Gurney/Koltsov - Daryl had a great win against MvG midweek, and now faces Koltsov, who got home against a surprisingly decent Engstrom in a decider. Bookies hugely favour Gurney, but I think Boris has decent chances in this one, so 0.1u Koltsov 4/1, the model is showing over 35%, which might be a bit generous, but it needs to be a lot generous not to take the upset price.

Chisnall/Aspinall - Real highlight match this, Nathan easily disposed of Huybrechts and is at a level now where, while Chizzy's the favourite, it's only 5/6. I think that's a bit unfair on Dave, he might have a bit more of a chance than that, but not much, I'd have probably set the line at 8/11, although Nathan's made a final this week so let's just move on.

Clayton/Kanik - Could be a good starting point for Clayton here, Kanik's shown flashes of what he can do a bit too late in his tour card run, but Burger really wasn't a threat yesterday. Clayton's a much more classy operator and is a big odds on favourite at 4/11 - maybe it should be slightly shorter still. Looks acca safe but not enough edge to lump on as a single.

Lewis/Searle - Ryan got past a somewhat under par Diogo Portela in round one and now comes up against Adie today, who had a decent run last weekend and a semi in midweek so continues to put in results. Searle's been a bit quiet since the worlds and this'll be a good test to see where his games at. Lot of vig in the market but it's favouring Lewis around 2-1, which looks maybe a little harsh on Ryan? Model's saying 60/40. Searle looked to be doing slightly better before the UK Open, if he'd put in a decent game yesterday, or a decent run more recently, then sure, but I think there's just enough doubt to not bet, but don't be surprised if Adie drops this one.

Webster/Bunting - Stephen made a final midweek and looks to be returning to form, getting past a spirited van den Boogaard (is it one a or two?), who could easily have nicked it. Darren has fallen in form enough that, combining the two things, he's not the favourite - which is how the model sees it as well, Bunting being favoured, but not by much.

Price/Henderson - Dunno what was up with Gerwyn against Wade after the game. Who knows. Hendo got through Smith in a game that was predictably tight, he's slightly more than a 2-1 dog here, which is maybe not enough, I'm looking at a 75/25 projection. We should take 4/9, but maybe Gerwyn's a bit distracted and it's enough for me to swerve it. Annoying really, Hendo didn't play that well yesterday so it's even more tempting to bet Price.

Cross/de Zwaan - Oh boy. Cross won 8-1 on Thursday after taking the midweek off, where de Zwaan continued his huge heater and claimed another title, knocking off Fasching yesterday without leaving first gear. Year long, the line looks right - Cross is 1/2, I'm seeing 65/35 in favour of Cross. So no bet. If you want to go with de Zwaan based on current form, I'm not going to stop you - just bear in mind Rob is playing some really, really good darts as well.

Wright/Dobey - Chris beat Andrew Gilding yesterday - just, after Gilding missed a plethora of match darts. Like Smith, Wright was officially done from the Premier League on Thursday, so can now return to looking at ranking events, and could frankly do with a result. The 4/7-7/4 line looks spot on, I've got it 65/35.

van Gerwen/Lennon - Steve didn't have to do much to beat Jamie Bain really, and gets a whole new level of test today. 0.1u Lennon 7/1, Steve's going to have to improve a lot from yesterday, but van Gerwen looked vulnerable last weekend and lost in midweek, the model puts Lennon at nearly 30% so this doesn't look too ridiculous, at least up until the point where MvG is 4-0 up in six minutes.

Wade/King - Mervyn got by Devon Petersen as mentioned earlier, Wade's a tough ask playing his best darts for nearly a year now, his win against Price being a huge help in getting him to the Premier League playoffs. Another 2/5 priced game, which looks just about alright, I think Mervyn's winning about one in three, so no real edge.

Suljovic/van Barneveld - Barney got past Mark Wilson easily, he only had one good leg though and will need more than that against Mensur, especially in Austria. Mensur's 1/2 which seems fine to me.

White/Hughes - We've talked about this game many a times, so will not repeat ourselves. It's a close game in the market, it's a close game in my projections - they like Hughes, so 6/5 is half tempting, but yesterday's performance is such a huge red flag - is Jamie a bit worn out from Germany to Barnsley to Austria in such a short space of time? It's a new thing and could be a factor.

Hopp/Brown - Last game, think it could be one of Max's last events as a seed with his Euro Tour win surely dropping soon, Keegan beat Conan Whitehead in a high scoring affair yesterday, the bookies can't separate them, I think we're both in agreement that Hopp is a tiny favourite.

So, like yesterday, not a huge amount there, mostly small, speculative underdog punts where we're only really looking for one to hit. Bit of a change from yesterday, but darts can often be an odd sport. Back later for the last sixteen.

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