Sunday, 12 May 2019

ET6 quarter finals

Not a bad little session that, three hits out of three outside of the lay MvG punt - obviously Richardson didn't turn up at all, was always a risk. This gives us quarter finals of White/de Zwaan, Beaton/Webster, Aspinall/Hughes and Wright/van Gerwen, what do we like?

White/de Zwaan's priced pretty evenly, generally 10/11 pick your poison - this looks to be on the money, I've got Jeffrey as ever so slightly favoured, but not enough where 10/11 would be as much as breakeven. Avoid, maybe do what we did the other week where we see who wins the bull and take them to win 6-5.

Beaton/Webster is equally hard to separate in the market, almost everyone pricing them the same with whatever vig they want to run with, where there is a slight difference it's in favour of Beaton. This looks like a good spot to bet on Steve, 0.25u Beaton 10/11, he's been playing much more impressive darts all around all season, and while Darren's played alright today in nicking it over Price, he didn't do that great against van der Voort - Beaton's had three very good games.

Now we get into games where oddschecker is lagging behind - Hughes is, maybe oddly, priced as around a 60/40 dog. The model has it the other way. There's no real consistency issue, and while Aspinall's been doing it on a larger sample size, I can't even start to think about avoiding this one - can't look at everywhere but 0.25u Hughes 6/4 on at least Paddy Power and Chandlers, if you can see better, obviously take better.

Finally it's van Gerwen against Wright, Peter generally in the region of 7/2. The model thinks this is closer, much closer, but is Wright terminally damaged against MvG after Thursday? Wright's not beaten van Gerwen in a ranking event since, er, the final of this two years ago, when it was 6-0. 0.1u Wright 7/2, what the hell.

Jesus Noguera (who he?) won Challenge Tour 7 over Mark Walsh - Stephen Burton made a semi to put him second in the rankings behind Edhouse, Callan Rydz had another decent run to push into the top 10 - we've got the seven event winners then Gilding, Rydz and a three way tie between Prins/Taylor/Rafferty. I do think they need to rethink how they allocate spots in the Pro Tour, the event is so top heavy that it's not really rewarding the consistency of the likes of Gilding and Rydz. Either they need to rework the prize money, or rework the allocation and not just go on straight countback. I'll have a think about how they could do some things better and maybe post during the week.

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