Monday, 6 May 2019

Back up, back up, tell me what you're gonna do now

The cool thing about the software that I use to produce my predictions and stats is that it's really easy to mess about with different stuff to see trends and the like, so I thought why not see what I could do to create a rolling average. So here it is:


I've changed the formatting of Cross and Wright's lines to dotted for a bit of clarity where colours might be a bit too similar. Let's explain what this graph is showing. In my database, every single leg that's been played (for those who care about these sorts of things, it's currently at around 44,000 after I've filtered it down to just the past twelve months). So I can say for any given match, this player has scored this number of points in this number of visits, and calculate points per turn for that date. Then, using science, I can plot a date axis and tell the program to calculate it for everything 60 days prior to each point on the axis. Hence you get a rolling score of how everyone's done in the last two months.

The period from around mid-January to mid-February looks a bit weird, but if you think about it, it's explainable - there were no competitive darts between the end of November and the start of February, except for the World Championship - so you'll see Suljovic and Price drop off a cliff during that period, for obvious reasons. But one thing that's also interesting to note is the enormous gap between van Gerwen and the field at the back end of 2018, where he was playing some incredible darts, which has all but been eroded since then - for that time in February to March where he was winning for fun and not missing much, Price was rated higher. Cross is now rated slightly higher. Also note the steady rise of Wade as he's got better and better over the last six months or so.

I'd plot some trendlines but the graph is crowded enough as it is already, but you'd look at Wade, Cross, Wright and Price and they're pointing up. Gurney, Suljovic and Smith (if you flattened out the peak he had during the worlds) are roughly level. That just leaves van Gerwen - floating around over 98 for the first half of the graph, but in the 96-97 area since? That's going in the opposite direction. Maybe this is why I seem to be betting against MvG quite as often as I have been doing...

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