Sunday, 12 May 2019

ET6 round 3 bets

Not a bad day at all yesterday - everything apart from Dobey and Hopp hit, the Dobey one stung given he missed a match dart in three legs (although it was only Gurney missing three himself that gave him the third dart), but can't be too angry given how things went overall. Think we should have bet on Dolan, who took it to a deciding leg - I've not been on Twitter since yesterday afternoon, but that's probably sparked more "MvG streak of deciding legs omg" posts, which wouldn't be there if van Gerwen was playing anything like his normal self and finishing off these types of games 6-3 or better as he used to do.

Quick look elsewhere, de Zwaan finally got there against Cross to open up that side of the draw, not that it makes it that much easier though, Zonneveld offered more resistance against Wright than I thought he would, but that's mostly Peter letting him, Richardson also got home against King, so what do we have today?

White (8/15) v Brown (13/8) - Brown was one of our bets yesterday and looked very comfortably against Ricky Evans, while White was forced to all 11 legs by Dimitri, who couldn't break in eighteen darts, missing one dart for a 128 out then making a huge hash of the 20 that was left. As an aside, I hate hate hate White going bull route on 132 with Dimitri waiting on tens for the match, I don't like it at the best of times but you have to assume you're not coming back and to maximise your chance of going out, which is T20 then double double. This line looks alright, White's a favourite but only in the low 60's.

de Zwaan (6/5) v Smith (8/11) - Mentioned Jeffrey above, Smith finally got a win in a good game with Ratajski, the standard numbers could have been even higher but both had pretty mediocre double percentages. Think this is another game where the line looks alright, I've got Smith as a tiny favourite and there's enough vig there that we can't consider betting de Zwaan.

Beaton (4/5) v Searle (11/10) - Steve got through Suljovic in a deciding leg, perhaps a bit fortunate to do so given Suljovic missed two clean at his favourite route in the decider (and one at bull in the previous leg for the same 121 he'd hit to break two legs prior). Searle got a bye, never sure whether this helps or hinders, he'll be fresher but one eleven leg match in a day isn't exactly a huge workload and the break may just end up disrupting rhythm. 0.25u Beaton 4/5, Ryan had a good win on Friday but Steve's had two good wins and is generally playing the better darts all year, the model is thinking this is a two in three chance for Beaton, so 4/5? Yes please.

Price (1/3) v Webster (5/2) - Gerwyn got past Carlin as expected, for the loss of just the one leg might be a bit easier than we thought but it is what it is, Webster needed all 11 to beat van der Voort, possibly a bit lucky in that Vincent, in the decider, started 180 but then couldn't leave a finish after 12 darts (which simple fat 20's would have done), so Webster was allowed to hold in six visits for the game. Gerwyn being about 1/3 looks fair enough to me. I'd probably edge it up to 3/10, but that's nitpicking, really can't see Darren being able to make the evening session here.

Gurney (8/11) v Aspinall (5/4) - We've talked about the Gurney game earlier, Nathan got past Max Hopp in what started out as a bit of a break fest before he took control. Market has this close and is slightly favouring Daryl, this seems wrong to me, 0.25u Aspinall 5/4, I've mentioned the consistency being on Daryl's side so the model probably underrates him, but it wasn't exactly wrong against Dobey, and if it's spitting out Aspinall to win 60% of the time, it'd need one heck of an adjustment.

Hughes (4/7) v McGeeney (17/10) - Big shot for both to make the evening session, Hughes got an early break against Lewis where he had eight perfect and then held the game from there, Mark needed a bit of luck against Cullen, 5-4 down he broke in 18 darts (on the bull) then held for the match, Joe's scoring going to pieces when it mattered. 0.25u Hughes 4/7, Jamie's been playing consistently better all season and the model is thinking a fair line would be 1/3, so let's get on it again. This might even be worth a slightly bigger play to be honest.

Wright (8/15) v Clayton (37/20) - Strange line setting, Sportingbet really loving Peter Wright. We mentioned he had problems with Zonneveld, Clayton's game with Ross Smith went with throw except for one break that Jonny got to claim a 6-4 win. Model is thinking this is near 60/40 in favour of Wright, I think you can probably get away with having something on the Sportingbet line but with everyone else being more or less where the model states, I don't know how sure you'll be to get on.

van Gerwen (1/10) v Richardson (15/2) - James is at 18.7% for this one, so that's 7% more than needed for it to be a break even bet. Let's do a checklist - did van Gerwen play well yesterday? No. Did Richardson play well the last two days? Yes. Do we believe Richardson will bottle it if he does get into a position to get home? Maybe, but 0.1u Richardson 15/2, it was nearly there against Dolan and I'd hate to miss out on the time van Gerwen losing does happen.

Quick note on the Challenge Tour, Darren Beveridge and Cameron Menzies got the titles, I've not backfilled the rankings yet so don't know where that'd put them in terms of countback to fill Pro Tour spots but it obviously helps, elsewhere Callan Rydz had a final and I think a last 16 (DartConnect for event 6 is a bit fucked up), Gilding had one as well, Andy Jenkins went deep both days, and Boris Koltsov was able to make another semi final which added on to a previous win can only help him in the rankings. Two more events today.

I might be back later, but I might watch the Premier League final day. Unsure yet.

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