Saturday, 11 May 2019

ET6 round 2 bets

Only the fifteen games today (as previously mentioned, James Wade's withdrawn so Ryan Searle gets a bye), let's take a look:

Smith (4/7) v Ratajski (6/4) - Rematch from earlier in the year, important one for Smith who really needs to bank some ranking money. Ratajski had a bit more trouble with Robert Owen than I thought he might have had, but got home 6-4 yesterday. Line's looking decent, I've got Krzysztof at just over 40%, so while there's not enough value to recommend a bet, if you're feeling the Pole's form and Michael's lack of it in Europe, then I won't stop you.

Cullen (8/11) v McGeeney (5/4) - Tough match for both, Mark got through Josh Payne in a decent game, Cullen in Europe is always strong, well apart from last week anyway. The model can't split them, it's 50/50 right down the line. Wouldn't recommend a McGeeney bet though, 5/4 isn't huge and the model's looking at all games, factor in Joe playing a bit better on the Euro stage than on the floor and the edge ought to vanish.

Clayton (4/6) v Smith (7/5) - Ross Smith had the interesting challenge of Pero Ljubic to deal with yesterday, who to be fair had his moments with a 157 out and held his own for a while before Ross pulled away late. Both players have been quietly good, this is an important one for Smith as he's in the Matchplay cutoff fight (well, everything's important from here on out really), but with Peter Wright being a possible opponent it's not a bad chance to make a run. Might be small value on Clayton here, I'm seeing 65%, we need 60%, if there was a slight bit more edge or slightly better odds then I'd probably go with the Ferret, it's that close.

King (8/13) v Richardson (6/4) - Mervyn got in as the last seed following Chizzy withdrawing in good time (unlike others), so this is for the chance to probably rematch MvG from the UK Open. James got through Edgar 6-3, pretty good performance actually, with 5 maximums, 50% on outs and a near 96 conventional average. Line looks good yet again sadly, I've got Richardson at 35%, maybe tiny King value but 8/13 versus 65% isn't anything huge, particularly given his opponent looks to be playing better than his usual stuff.

Evans (4/5) v Brown (11/10) - Keegan got past Daniel Klose 6-3, who was able to get back into it, going from 3-1 down to 3-3 before Brown pulled away, now Brown faces recent finalist Evans - and I think we have a first bet - 0.25u Brown 11/10, the model's showing Keegan at 55%, so it's just about enough. I always think that having played on the stage on the Friday and winning will give you a little bit of extra help, the bet's there without that but it can't hurt.

White (8/11) v van den Bergh (6/5) - White's been in the past couple of finals and is looking for the hat trick, Dimitri has been real up and down, but was fairly in the middle in a routine win over Rasztovits yesterday. White's kind of tempting - the model's close to what the line says, but Dimitri has much, much more variance and the model's reliant on won legs - which is usually when Dimitri turns up, which has been rare of late.

Price (1/4) v Carlin (7/2) - Gerwyn's the seed for Gavin, who got past Dragutin Horvat and a partisan crowd yesterday without really hitting any huge heights. Needless to say he's got nothing to lose, but it's a much higher test and I'm seeing Gerwyn up at 88% to win the game, so 1u Price 1/4, Carlin didn't show anything yesterday that made me think he can up his game enough to really trouble the potential Premier League playoff contender.

Cross (1/2) v de Zwaan (7/4) - We've talked about this one a few times, Cross kept his hopes of topping the Premier League table very much alive on Thursday, yesterday Jeffrey got through Bellmont 6-2, nice couple of legs to finish, back to back twelves with a 121 then a 156 out (nice of him to go bull first on the former despite Stefan being on a gettable out, Jeffrey thinks a good game as well as playing one). They've had enough practice in getting the line right for this one and I think they've done it again, I don't have Cross quite at a two in three shot, but it's near enough there's no value on de Zwaan.

Webster (13/10) v van der Voort (8/11) - The seed's the underdog here. Not surprising, Vincent's up there in the stats, even if the results may not show it, and Darren's game probably isn't quite at the level it was twelve months ago. Vincent beat Dave Prins yesterday after going a break down early, so nice fightback, the model's showing the same sort of analysis as the market, with Webster being a small dog, so let's move on.

Gurney (4/7) v Dobey (13/8) - Real nice display from Chris yesterday, firing in a big average as he whitewashed the potentially dangerous Madars Razma. Gurney's up next, and such is the level of Chris's play this year, the model spits him out as a favourite. 0.25u Dobey 13/8, if you're not confident after yesterday you'll never be.

Suljovic (8/15) v Beaton (7/4) - Steve got past Bunting 6-4 yesterday in a game that was decided by just the one break, and it doesn't get any easier as he faces Mensur next, but Beaton's been playing great this year. Really, really good. It's another game, like the last one, where he projects as the favourite, so 0.25u Beaton 7/4. Now Gurney and Suljovic are both very high on the consistency stakes, but neither is going to swing enough that they're not still solid bets.

Lewis (8/11) v Hughes (13/10) - Probably not the draw that Adie would want, as Jamie lost just the one leg in beating the domestic qualifier Pietreczko, wasn't spectacular stuff as we've seen but it didn't need to be. Adie's been doing fine this year, he's even won a title, but Hughes has been playing so well that it's not a surprise that the model shows him as a favourite to win, and a substantial one at that - 0.25u Hughes 13/10. I'd probably still think about firing if the odds were the other way around.

Hopp (6/4) v Aspinall (4/6) - Nathan breezed past Kim Viljanen and now faces Max Hopp in a repeat of the world youth final from several years ago, it's probably one of Hopp's last events as a seed, if not the last event, so he's got to make it count. I think he can - 0.25u Hopp 6/4, Max's figures are remarkably similar to Nathan's this season and there's little to separate the two. The model certainly makes it 50/50 in any case so we're snapping off 6/4.

van Gerwen (1/9) v Dolan (7/1) - Brendan got past Rosenauer yesterday, wasn't brilliant but he wasn't missing doubles much and the last two legs he picked up the standard nicely. Dolan has course and distance, but isn't quite showing high enough to take the stab against MvG. That van Gerwen was on fire on Thursday is probably reason enough not to tip Brendan here.

Wright (1/10) v Zonneveld (15/2) - Finally we have the guy van Gerwen demolished, and he's up against Niels Zonneveld, the young Dutchman getting past Michael Hurtz in a scrappy affair, I wouldn't read too much into the averages given they got into a pub level "who can bust 4 or 2 the most" leg which'll drag things down a bit. There's no way we can consider betting Wright at that price at this stage against anyone competent enough to have got a card, but as the model is throwing out Wright at around 90% to win it, we can't back Niels either.

So we have Brown, Price, and then four games where we're firing on small underdogs in the market. A bit more to have a go at today at least.

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