Saturday, 25 May 2019

ET7 round 2 bets

Can we get back over +20 units lifetime today? We're needing less than a tenth of a unit of profit to do so, let's see what we can do.

Bunting/Dolan - This one's priced up quite evenly, Bunting being the small favourite. Thought this might have been a bit more in Stephen's favour but the line's respecting Dolan's game I guess, Brendan having a routine win yesterday, and actually having more points per turn this season than Bunting - albeit by 0.08. This is a close one, Stephen's actually done a little better than Dolan on the legs he's won so he projects a slight favourite, but as that's what the line says anyway, next game please. Maybe see who wins the bull and bet 6-5 correct score?

Whitlock/Hempel - Probably a quick one to analyse, Florian got a nice win yesterday, Simon's not a bad seed to face, but I would think all of Whitlock's experience will get him over the line. It's a 1/3 Whitlock sort of game, I'd usually be tempted to take anyone who's got through a first round game against him, but Hempel didn't do quite enough to make me think he can put in enough of a sustained effort if he faces someone who puts up more resistance than Harrington did.

Wattimena/Noppert - Nice all-Dutch tie here, thought they might have put this one on the evening session? Jermaine's been a little bit quiet the last month or so, not playing in the last couple of Euro Tours and not winning a board on the Pro Tour in six attempts, so if Noppert plays like he did yesterday in a fun game against Harry Ward, Jermaine could be in trouble. The market actually has Noppert as the favourite, which I thought might be surprising, but then the master computer thinks 8/11 is more or less spot on, Noppie actually outscoring Wattimena this season by a point and a half a turn. Let's move on...

Evans/van Trijp - No rubber match between Brown and Evans here, as Danny van Trijp edged home mostly on the back of hitting a shedload of ton 40's. I don't think I can bet this one, Danny's not done too badly at all the two times we've seen him on the senior tour, but a quick check on his Challenge Tour and Development Tour stats and against someone decent like Evans I don't think he gets home quite enough. 11/4 feels about right here.

Clayton/Nilsson - Dennis easily routed a pretty poor Erik Hol 6-0, not a pretty game and Dennis isn't going to be able to afford quite so many missed doubles against Jonny Clayton, who's having a solid season. There's not a huge amount of data to work off, so it's mostly gut feeling and I'm thinking it's similar to the last game - 3/1 for Nilsson looks about the right ballpark.

Price/Ratajski - Wow, this is a nice game for an afternoon session on day 2. Ratajski beat Ross Smith in a high quality encounter yesterday, and meets up against Price again - they've met four times in the past twelve months, splitting the series with Price winning the biggest one in the UK Open, but Ratajski getting the most recent win and also winning in Minehead last November. The line looks more or less spot on - Price is 8/13 which implies slightly better than a 60% shot to win, the master computer says 63% so there's nothing here. Again.

Webster/Rodriguez - High quality performance from Rowby, he doesn't hit his peaks often but when he does it's spectacular. I'm taking this one off the board as I really don't know what to think about Webster and how he'll play after last Saturday, and contemplating about that one with the wild inconsistency that Rodriguez has is a nightmare - after yesterday it'd surprise nobody if he stepped up and averaged 78.

Wade/Durrant - Wade cried off, damnit. I was looking forward to this one. At least we see Glen tomorrow.

Chisnall/Beaton - Two in form players facing off here, Beaton playing arguably the best darts of his life, while Chizzy's won two titles already this year. They've not met since last June so no real form guide head to head, the market favours Chisnall a fair bit, which is testament to Dave's game given how Beaton is playing. Steve's 13/8, I'm getting him winning slightly under 40%, so we're still looking for a bet. If we can't find it on Steve, who can we find one on?

White/Mansell - Ian's going to look to continue recent European form and faces Mickey Mansell, who did just about enough to defeat Kyle Anderson and move on to today. Ian's heavily favoured, and rightly so - I've got a win chance of just over 80% for the Diamond, and he's 1/4, come on bookies, offer us something, anything!

Cullen/Hopp - Maybe we can get something here, Joe's struggled for form somewhat, and maybe even his European Tour specialty is wilting slightly having lost to McGeeney and Mark Webster in opening games the last two events. Hopp beat Aspinall in a game that went all the way yesterday and the bookies have it close to even. This game should not be close to even, Max ought to win this three times out of every five per the master computer, if Cullen can refind his European form quickly then it might be closer, but over 60% and offered odds against? 0.25u Hopp 11/10, there, finally, we have something.

van Gerwen/O'Connor - A rematch from last season's Dutch Darts Championship, where a distinctly below par van Gerwen lost quite heavily. Since then, van Gerwen's form isn't quite so stellar as it quickly became after that event, and Willie's managed to get a title under his belt. We're being offered some quite silly odds here, 0.1u O'Connor 10/1, the master computer might be on steroids a bit to think Willie claims this just over one in three, but ask yourself if Michael wins this 90% of the time?

Gurney/King - Daryl's up next, and he faces Mervyn King, who hit some nice combination outs to see off Luke Woodhouse yesterday. They last met, oddly, in this event last year where Daryl won, but King had won six of the previous seven. This line looks way off, King's playing some good stuff, 0.25u King 9/4, Daryl's ahead by about a point and a half on King per turn this season, but that's all consistency, on winning legs Mervyn's actually scoring better and thus the master computer actually gives King the slight edge. In reality it's not like that but in reality King has better than a one in three shout.

Smith/van Barneveld - Michael shouldn't have been a seed here, but he is, and faces Raymond on home soil after he disposed of Pal Szekely comfortably enough. Some nice big outs on show, and he might need to pick more of them off against someone of Smith's quality. Smith is about a 2/1 favourite in the market, and the master computer spits out the same analysis. Maybe think about the Barney punt if home soil appeals to you, and the potential of one more MvG/Barney matchup tomorrow might be on.

Wright/Edhouse - Ritchie cruised past Hendriks 6-2 late yesterday, not a bad performance but nothing truly special, and he'll need to improve a lot to really threaten Wright, who's installed as a 1/5 favourite which doesn't really look too disrespectful to Edhouse - he's played 300 legs on the senior circuit this year thanks to early Challenge Tour form and is scoring seven points per turn less than Wright, that's enough sample for me.

Suljovic/van der Voort - Last game up and we see Mensur, favourite of fans everywhere, against Vincent, who'll certainly be favourite in the Netherlands. Vincent took out Andy Boulton with a five leg spurt from 2-1 down, and is installed at 9/4 here. Honestly, I don't think van der Voort is that far behind, he's got home advantage, albeit against one of the most likable players in the game, and he's putting together enough power in his winning legs that Suljovic is only favoured on projections using those by about 5% - 0.25u van der Voort 9/4, one more for the road.

We got a few in the end - more tomorrow morning.

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