Sunday, 5 May 2019

ET5 quarters

Internet connection seems to be playing like it's the 1990's so I'll be brief here, much like the last event it's one with a lot of huge names in the quarters, all the matchups seem close except for the van Gerwen one, for the afternoon bets it's just Bunting not turning up, it happens, what do we have tonight?

0.1u Wright 4/1, this shouldn't be a surprise given I've just made a huge post about how we might be able to profit from laying MvG continually, none of the numbers in that post are going to have changed much at all with the addition of a handful of legs.

Nothing on Lewis/Gurney. This is an incredibly tight game, the two of them on points per turn for the year are separated by 0.02, Lewis is about half a point higher on winning legs (which in turn means the model gives him the slight 54/46 edge), but Gurney's a point higher on losing legs, which might reign things in slightly. Their performances have been fairly comparable this weekend, I'm just trying to talk myself out of a Lewis bet. Gurney beat the world's best on Thursday and will want to have the opportunity to do it again. There, will that do? Maybe just see who wins the bull and go 6-5 correct score for them.

0.25u Price 6/5, this one is a bit different. We're getting slightly better odds, Price is a couple of percentage points higher in win chances than Lewis was, Price is actually more consistent, I suppose the concern is that Wade was absolutely on fire against Suljovic earlier, at least in the first five legs, but that's but one game and Price has all the motivation to avenge the defeat on Thursday.

Nothing on the last game. Beaton's 13/10 best price, which is needing around a 44% requirement. I'm seeing 48%, and he definitely played a lot better today than White did (although did White need to play that well to beat Brown?), and was probably slightly better yesterday as well. Steve can certainly take this and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he did, or at least forced things to go all the way, but there's not quite enough of an edge to start punting, although keep an eye on the line and don't hesitate if you see it get out to 6/4 or something like that.

Won't be about for the semis or the final, you've got all the van Gerwen lines you need, and can derive what Wright should be from the same lines, in the other half Price/Beaton looks about 64/36 Price, Price/White about 61/39 Price, while Wade/White is around 55/45 Wade and Wade/Beaton is 57/43 Wade. Happy punting people.

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